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AICov: An Integrative Deep Learning Framework for COVID-19 Forecasting with Population Covariates

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The COVID-19 pandemic has profound global consequences on health, economic, social, political, and almost every major aspect of human life. Therefore, it is of great importance to model COVID-19 and other pandemics in terms of the broader social contexts in which they take place. We present the architecture of AICov, which provides an integrative deep learning framework for COVID-19 forecasting with population covariates, some of which may serve as putative risk factors. We have integrated multiple different strategies into AICov, including the ability to use deep learning strategies based on LSTM and even modeling. To demonstrate our approach, we have conducted a pilot that integrates population covariates from multiple sources. Thus, AICov not only includes data on COVID-19 cases and deaths but, more importantly, the population's socioeconomic, health and behavioral risk factors at a local level. The compiled data are fed into AICov, and thus we obtain improved prediction by integration of the data to our model as compared to one that only uses case and death data.


The Short Anthropological Guide to the Study of Ethical AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over the next few years, society as a whole will need to address what core values it wishes to protect when dealing with technology. Anthropology, a field dedicated to the very notion of what it means to be human, can provide some interesting insights into how to cope and tackle these changes in our Western society and other areas of the world. It can be challenging for social science practitioners to grasp and keep up with the pace of technological innovation, with many being unfamiliar with the jargon of AI. This short guide serves as both an introduction to AI ethics and social science and anthropological perspectives on the development of AI. It intends to provide those unfamiliar with the field with an insight into the societal impact of AI systems and how, in turn, these systems can lead us to rethink how our world operates.


Scientists use big data to sway elections and predict riots -- welcome to the 1960s

Nature

Ignorance of history is a badge of honour in Silicon Valley. "The only thing that matters is the future," self-driving-car engineer Anthony Levandowski told The New Yorker in 20181. Levandowski, formerly of Google, Uber and Google's autonomous-vehicle subsidiary Waymo (and recently sentenced to 18 months in prison for stealing trade secrets), is no outlier. The gospel of'disruptive innovation' depends on the abnegation of history2. 'Move fast and break things' was Facebook's motto. Another word for this is heedlessness. And here are a few more: negligence, foolishness and blindness.


Beyond Social Media Analytics: Understanding Human Behaviour and Deep Emotion using Self Structuring Incremental Machine Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This thesis develops a conceptual framework considering social data as representing the surface layer of a hierarchy of human social behaviours, needs and cognition which is employed to transform social data into representations that preserve social behaviours and their causalities. Based on this framework two platforms were built to capture insights from fast-paced and slow-paced social data. For fast-paced, a self-structuring and incremental learning technique was developed to automatically capture salient topics and corresponding dynamics over time. An event detection technique was developed to automatically monitor those identified topic pathways for significant fluctuations in social behaviours using multiple indicators such as volume and sentiment. This platform is demonstrated using two large datasets with over 1 million tweets. The separated topic pathways were representative of the key topics of each entity and coherent against topic coherence measures. Identified events were validated against contemporary events reported in news. Secondly for the slow-paced social data, a suite of new machine learning and natural language processing techniques were developed to automatically capture self-disclosed information of the individuals such as demographics, emotions and timeline of personal events. This platform was trialled on a large text corpus of over 4 million posts collected from online support groups. This was further extended to transform prostate cancer related online support group discussions into a multidimensional representation and investigated the self-disclosed quality of life of patients (and partners) against time, demographics and clinical factors. The capabilities of this extended platform have been demonstrated using a text corpus collected from 10 prostate cancer online support groups comprising of 609,960 prostate cancer discussions and 22,233 patients.


Human-in-the-Loop Methods for Data-Driven and Reinforcement Learning Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent successes combine reinforcement learning algorithms and deep neural networks, despite reinforcement learning not being widely applied to robotics and real world scenarios. This can be attributed to the fact that current state-of-the-art, end-to-end reinforcement learning approaches still require thousands or millions of data samples to converge to a satisfactory policy and are subject to catastrophic failures during training. Conversely, in real world scenarios and after just a few data samples, humans are able to either provide demonstrations of the task, intervene to prevent catastrophic actions, or simply evaluate if the policy is performing correctly. This research investigates how to integrate these human interaction modalities to the reinforcement learning loop, increasing sample efficiency and enabling real-time reinforcement learning in robotics and real world scenarios. This novel theoretical foundation is called Cycle-of-Learning, a reference to how different human interaction modalities, namely, task demonstration, intervention, and evaluation, are cycled and combined to reinforcement learning algorithms. Results presented in this work show that the reward signal that is learned based upon human interaction accelerates the rate of learning of reinforcement learning algorithms and that learning from a combination of human demonstrations and interventions is faster and more sample efficient when compared to traditional supervised learning algorithms. Finally, Cycle-of-Learning develops an effective transition between policies learned using human demonstrations and interventions to reinforcement learning. The theoretical foundation developed by this research opens new research paths to human-agent teaming scenarios where autonomous agents are able to learn from human teammates and adapt to mission performance metrics in real-time and in real world scenarios.


Bletchley Park Trust hit in Blackbaud security breach

BBC News - Technology

The home of hacking in wartime Britain, Bletchley Park, was one of the victims of a major ransomware attack that hit software provider Blackbaud. The firm held data about people who had donated to the trust that manages the Bletchley Park museum. Harvard University has also joined the growing list of victims, which have mostly been charities and universities. Bletchley Park Trust said it was confident any exposed data was now secure. The trust added that data exposed to the hackers might have included names, dates of birth, email addresses, donation history and details of event attendance – but not credit and debit card details or bank account information.


In China, facial recognition, public shaming and control go hand in hand - CNET

CNET - News

A screen shows a demonstration of SenseTime Group's SenseVideo pedestrian and vehicle recognition system at the company's showroom in Beijing. Facial recognition supporters in the US often argue that the surveillance technology is reserved for the greatest risks -- to help deal with violent crimes, terrorist threats and human trafficking. And while it's still often used for petty crimes like shoplifting, stealing $12 worth of goods or selling $50 worth of drugs, its use in the US still looks tame compared with how widely deployed facial recognition has been in China. A database leak in 2019 gave a glimpse of how pervasive China's surveillance tools are -- with more than 6.8 million records from a single day, taken from cameras positioned around hotels, parks, tourism spots and mosques, logging details on people as young as 9 days old. The Chinese government is accused of using facial recognition to commit atrocities against Uyghur Muslims, relying on the technology to carry out "the largest mass incarceration of a minority population in the world today."


Event Prediction in the Big Data Era: A Systematic Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Events are occurrences in specific locations, time, and semantics that nontrivially impact either our society or the nature, such as civil unrest, system failures, and epidemics. It is highly desirable to be able to anticipate the occurrence of such events in advance in order to reduce the potential social upheaval and damage caused. Event prediction, which has traditionally been prohibitively challenging, is now becoming a viable option in the big data era and is thus experiencing rapid growth. There is a large amount of existing work that focuses on addressing the challenges involved, including heterogeneous multi-faceted outputs, complex dependencies, and streaming data feeds. Most existing event prediction methods were initially designed to deal with specific application domains, though the techniques and evaluation procedures utilized are usually generalizable across different domains. However, it is imperative yet difficult to cross-reference the techniques across different domains, given the absence of a comprehensive literature survey for event prediction. This paper aims to provide a systematic and comprehensive survey of the technologies, applications, and evaluations of event prediction in the big data era. First, systematic categorization and summary of existing techniques are presented, which facilitate domain experts' searches for suitable techniques and help model developers consolidate their research at the frontiers. Then, comprehensive categorization and summary of major application domains are provided. Evaluation metrics and procedures are summarized and standardized to unify the understanding of model performance among stakeholders, model developers, and domain experts in various application domains. Finally, open problems and future directions for this promising and important domain are elucidated and discussed.


COVI White Paper

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic has caused significant strain on public health institutions around the world. Contact tracing is an essential tool to change the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. Manual contact tracing of Covid-19 cases has significant challenges that limit the ability of public health authorities to minimize community infections. Personalized peer-to-peer contact tracing through the use of mobile apps has the potential to shift the paradigm. Some countries have deployed centralized tracking systems, but more privacy-protecting decentralized systems offer much of the same benefit without concentrating data in the hands of a state authority or for-profit corporations. Machine learning methods can circumvent some of the limitations of standard digital tracing by incorporating many clues and their uncertainty into a more graded and precise estimation of infection risk. The estimated risk can provide early risk awareness, personalized recommendations and relevant information to the user. Finally, non-identifying risk data can inform epidemiological models trained jointly with the machine learning predictor. These models can provide statistical evidence for the importance of factors involved in disease transmission. They can also be used to monitor, evaluate and optimize health policy and (de)confinement scenarios according to medical and economic productivity indicators. However, such a strategy based on mobile apps and machine learning should proactively mitigate potential ethical and privacy risks, which could have substantial impacts on society (not only impacts on health but also impacts such as stigmatization and abuse of personal data). Here, we present an overview of the rationale, design, ethical considerations and privacy strategy of `COVI,' a Covid-19 public peer-to-peer contact tracing and risk awareness mobile application developed in Canada.


GPT-3 Creative Fiction

#artificialintelligence

What if I told a story here, how would that story start?" Thus, the summarization prompt: "My second grader asked me what this passage means: …" When a given prompt isn't working and GPT-3 keeps pivoting into other modes of completion, that may mean that one hasn't constrained it enough by imitating a correct output, and one needs to go further; writing the first few words or sentence of the target output may be necessary.