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Predicting seasonal influenza using supermarket retail records

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Increased availability of epidemiological data, novel digital data streams, and the rise of powerful machine learning approaches have generated a surge of research activity on real-time epidemic forecast systems. In this paper, we propose the use of a novel data source, namely retail market data to improve seasonal influenza forecasting. Specifically, we consider supermarket retail data as a proxy signal for influenza, through the identification of sentinel baskets, i.e., products bought together by a population of selected customers. We develop a nowcasting and forecasting framework that provides estimates for influenza incidence in Italy up to 4 weeks ahead. We make use of the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to produce the predictions of seasonal flu incidence. Our predictions outperform both a baseline autoregressive model and a second baseline based on product purchases. The results show quantitatively the value of incorporating retail market data in forecasting models, acting as a proxy that can be used for the real-time analysis of epidemics.


Developing Future Human-Centered Smart Cities: Critical Analysis of Smart City Security, Interpretability, and Ethical Challenges

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As we make tremendous advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence technosciences, there is a renewed understanding in the AI community that we must ensure that humans being are at the center of our deliberations so that we don't end in technology-induced dystopias. As strongly argued by Green in his book Smart Enough City, the incorporation of technology in city environs does not automatically translate into prosperity, wellbeing, urban livability, or social justice. There is a great need to deliberate on the future of the cities worth living and designing. There are philosophical and ethical questions involved along with various challenges that relate to the security, safety, and interpretability of AI algorithms that will form the technological bedrock of future cities. Several research institutes on human centered AI have been established at top international universities. Globally there are calls for technology to be made more humane and human-compatible. For example, Stuart Russell has a book called Human Compatible AI. The Center for Humane Technology advocates for regulators and technology companies to avoid business models and product features that contribute to social problems such as extremism, polarization, misinformation, and Internet addiction. In this paper, we analyze and explore key challenges including security, robustness, interpretability, and ethical challenges to a successful deployment of AI or ML in human-centric applications, with a particular emphasis on the convergence of these challenges. We provide a detailed review of existing literature on these key challenges and analyze how one of these challenges may lead to others or help in solving other challenges. The paper also advises on the current limitations, pitfalls, and future directions of research in these domains, and how it can fill the current gaps and lead to better solutions.


Facial recognition for pigs: Is it helping Chinese farmers or hurting the poorest?

The Guardian > Technology

Like humans, pigs have idiosyncratic faces, and new players in the Chinese pork market are taking notice, experimenting with increasingly sophisticated versions of facial recognition software for pigs. China is the world's largest exporter of pork, and is set to increase production next year by 9%. As the nation's pork farms grow in scale, more farmers are turning to AI systems like facial recognition technology – known as FRT – to continuously monitor, identify, and even feed their herds. This automated style of farming has the potential to be safer, cheaper and generally more effective: In 2018, pig farmers in China's Guangxi province trialling FRT found that it slashed costs, cut down on breeding time, and improved welfare outcomes for the pigs themselves. But it also has the potential to leave behind independent, small-scale farmers, who cannot afford to introduce this kind of technology to their operations.


Transdisciplinary AI Observatory -- Retrospective Analyses and Future-Oriented Contradistinctions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the last years, AI safety gained international recognition in the light of heterogeneous safety-critical and ethical issues that risk overshadowing the broad beneficial impacts of AI. In this context, the implementation of AI observatory endeavors represents one key research direction. This paper motivates the need for an inherently transdisciplinary AI observatory approach integrating diverse retrospective and counterfactual views. We delineate aims and limitations while providing hands-on-advice utilizing concrete practical examples. Distinguishing between unintentionally and intentionally triggered AI risks with diverse socio-psycho-technological impacts, we exemplify a retrospective descriptive analysis followed by a retrospective counterfactual risk analysis. Building on these AI observatory tools, we present near-term transdisciplinary guidelines for AI safety. As further contribution, we discuss differentiated and tailored long-term directions through the lens of two disparate modern AI safety paradigms. For simplicity, we refer to these two different paradigms with the terms artificial stupidity (AS) and eternal creativity (EC) respectively. While both AS and EC acknowledge the need for a hybrid cognitive-affective approach to AI safety and overlap with regard to many short-term considerations, they differ fundamentally in the nature of multiple envisaged long-term solution patterns. By compiling relevant underlying contradistinctions, we aim to provide future-oriented incentives for constructive dialectics in practical and theoretical AI safety research.


Over a Decade of Social Opinion Mining

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Social media popularity and importance is on the increase, due to people using it for various types of social interaction across multiple channels. This social interaction by online users includes submission of feedback, opinions and recommendations about various individuals, entities, topics, and events. This systematic review focuses on the evolving research area of Social Opinion Mining, tasked with the identification of multiple opinion dimensions, such as subjectivity, sentiment polarity, emotion, affect, sarcasm and irony, from user-generated content represented across multiple social media platforms and in various media formats, like text, image, video and audio. Therefore, through Social Opinion Mining, natural language can be understood in terms of the different opinion dimensions, as expressed by humans. This contributes towards the evolution of Artificial Intelligence, which in turn helps the advancement of several real-world use cases, such as customer service and decision making. A thorough systematic review was carried out on Social Opinion Mining research which totals 485 studies and spans a period of twelve years between 2007 and 2018. The in-depth analysis focuses on the social media platforms, techniques, social datasets, language, modality, tools and technologies, natural language processing tasks and other aspects derived from the published studies. Such multi-source information fusion plays a fundamental role in mining of people's social opinions from social media platforms. These can be utilised in many application areas, ranging from marketing, advertising and sales for product/service management, and in multiple domains and industries, such as politics, technology, finance, healthcare, sports and government. Future research directions are presented, whereas further research and development has the potential of leaving a wider academic and societal impact.


Google Reveals Major Hidden Weakness In Machine Learning

Discover - Top Stories

Machine learning involves training a model with data so that it learns to spot or predict features. The Google team pick on the example of training a machine learning system to predict the course of a pandemic. Epidemiologists have built detailed models of the way a disease spreads from infected individuals to susceptible individuals, but not to those who have recovered and so are immune. Key factors in this spread are the rate of infection, often called R0, and length of time, D, that an infected individual is infectious. Obviously, a disease can spread more widely when it is more infectious and when people are infectious for longer.


A Survey on Data Pricing: from Economics to Data Science

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

How can we assess the value of data objectively, systematically and quantitatively? Pricing data, or information goods in general, has been studied and practiced in dispersed areas and principles, such as economics, marketing, electronic commerce, data management, data mining and machine learning. In this article, we present a unified, interdisciplinary and comprehensive overview of this important direction. We examine various motivations behind data pricing, understand the economics of data pricing and review the development and evolution of pricing models according to a series of fundamental principles. We discuss both digital products and data products. We also consider a series of challenges and directions for future work.


Can We Make Our Robots Less Biased Than Us?

NYT > Top Stories

On a summer night in Dallas in 2016, a bomb-handling robot made technological history. Police officers had attached roughly a pound of C-4 explosive to it, steered the device up to a wall near an active shooter and detonated the charge. In the explosion, the assailant, Micah Xavier Johnson, became the first person in the United States to be killed by a police robot. Afterward, then-Dallas Police Chief David Brown called the decision sound. Before the robot attacked, Mr. Johnson had shot five officers dead, wounded nine others and hit two civilians, and negotiations had stalled.


An ontology-based chatbot for crises management: use case coronavirus

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Today is the era of intelligence in machines. With the advances in Artificial Intelligence, machines have started to impersonate different human traits, a chatbot is the next big thing in the domain of conversational services. A chatbot is a virtual person who is capable to carry out a natural conversation with people. They can include skills that enable them to converse with the humans in audio, visual, or textual formats. Artificial intelligence conversational entities, also called chatbots, conversational agents, or dialogue system, are an excellent example of such machines. Obtaining the right information at the right time and place is the key to effective disaster management. The term "disaster management" encompasses both natural and human-caused disasters. To assist citizens, our project is to create a COVID Assistant to provide the need of up to date information to be available 24 hours. With the growth in the World Wide Web, it is quite intelligible that users are interested in the swift and relatedly correct information for their hunt. A chatbot can be seen as a question-and-answer system in which experts provide knowledge to solicit users. This master thesis is dedicated to discuss COVID Assistant chatbot and explain each component in detail. The design of the proposed chatbot is introduced by its seven components: Ontology, Web Scraping module, DB, State Machine, keyword Extractor, Trained chatbot, and User Interface.


Machine learning for the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease: A systematic review

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD) is commonly based on medical observations and assessment of clinical signs, including the characterization of a variety of motor symptoms. However, traditional diagnostic approaches may suffer from subjectivity as they rely on the evaluation of movements that are sometimes subtle to human eyes and therefore difficult to classify, leading to possible misclassification. In the meantime, early non-motor symptoms of PD may be mild and can be caused by many other conditions. Therefore, these symptoms are often overlooked, making diagnosis of PD at an early stage challenging. To address these difficulties and to refine the diagnosis and assessment procedures of PD, machine learning methods have been implemented for the classification of PD and healthy controls or patients with similar clinical presentations (e.g., movement disorders or other Parkinsonian syndromes). To provide a comprehensive overview of data modalities and machine learning methods that have been used in the diagnosis and differential diagnosis of PD, in this study, we conducted a systematic literature review of studies published until February 14, 2020, using the PubMed and IEEE Xplore databases. A total of 209 studies were included, extracted for relevant information and presented in this systematic review, with an investigation of their aims, sources of data, types of data, machine learning methods and associated outcomes. These studies demonstrate a high potential for adaptation of machine learning methods and novel biomarkers in clinical decision making, leading to increasingly systematic, informed diagnosis of PD.