Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) model feedback causal relations in interwoven webs of causality and policy variables. FCMs are fuzzy signed directed graphs that allow degrees of causal influence and event occurrence. Such causal models can simulate a wide range of policy scenarios and decision processes. Their directed loops or cycles directly model causal feedback. Their nonlinear dynamics permit forward-chaining inference from input causes and policy options to output effects. Users can add detailed dynamics and feedback links directly to the causal model or infer them with statistical learning laws. Users can fuse or combine FCMs from multiple experts by weighting and adding the underlying fuzzy edge matrices and do so recursively if needed. The combined FCM tends to better represent domain knowledge as the expert sample size increases if the expert sample approximates a random sample. Many causal models use more restrictive directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and Bayesian probabilities. DAGs do not model causal feedback because they do not contain closed loops. Combining DAGs also tends to produce cycles and thus tends not to produce a new DAG. Combining DAGs tends to produce a FCM. FCM causal influence is also transitive whereas probabilistic causal influence is not transitive in general. Overall: FCMs trade the numerical precision of probabilistic DAGs for pattern prediction, faster and scalable computation, ease of combination, and richer feedback representation. We show how FCMs can apply to problems of public support for insurgency and terrorism and to US-China conflict relations in Graham Allison's Thucydides-trap framework. The appendix gives the textual justification of the Thucydides-trap FCM. It also extends our earlier theorem [Osoba-Kosko2017] to a more general result that shows the transitive and total causal influence that upstream concept nodes exert on downstream nodes.

We consider filtering in high-dimensional non-Gaussian state-space models with intractable transition kernels, nonlinear and possibly chaotic dynamics, and sparse observations in space and time. We propose a novel filtering methodology that harnesses transportation of measures, convex optimization, and ideas from probabilistic graphical models to yield robust ensemble approximations of the filtering distribution in high dimensions. Our approach can be understood as the natural generalization of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to nonlinear updates, using stochastic or deterministic couplings. The use of nonlinear updates can reduce the intrinsic bias of the EnKF at a marginal increase in computational cost. We avoid any form of importance sampling and introduce non-Gaussian localization approaches for dimension scalability. Our framework achieves state-of-the-art tracking performance on challenging configurations of the Lorenz-96 model in the chaotic regime.

We believe that AI will be a force multiplier on technological progress in our increasingly digital, data-driven world. This is because everything around us today, ranging from culture to consumer products, is a product of intelligence. In this report, we set out to capture a snapshot of the exponential progress in AI with a focus on developments in the past 12 months. Consider this report as a compilation of the most interesting things we've seen with a goal of triggering an informed conversation about the state of AI and its implication for the future. This edition builds on the inaugural State of AI Report 2018, which can be found here: www.stateof.ai/2018 We consider the following key dimensions in our report: - Research: Technology breakthroughs and their capabilities.

Next-generation wireless networks must support ultra-reliable, low-latency communication and intelligently manage a massive number of Internet of Things (IoT) devices in real-time, within a highly dynamic environment. This need for stringent communication quality-of-service (QoS) requirements as well as mobile edge and core intelligence can only be realized by integrating fundamental notions of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning across the wireless infrastructure and end-user devices. In this context, this paper provides a comprehensive tutorial that introduces the main concepts of machine learning, in general, and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in particular, and their potential applications in wireless communications. For this purpose, we present a comprehensive overview on a number of key types of neural networks that include feed-forward, recurrent, spiking, and deep neural networks. For each type of neural network, we present the basic architecture and training procedure, as well as the associated challenges and opportunities. Then, we provide an in-depth overview on the variety of wireless communication problems that can be addressed using ANNs, ranging from communication using unmanned aerial vehicles to virtual reality and edge caching.For each individual application, we present the main motivation for using ANNs along with the associated challenges while also providing a detailed example for a use case scenario and outlining future works that can be addressed using ANNs. In a nutshell, this article constitutes one of the first holistic tutorials on the development of machine learning techniques tailored to the needs of future wireless networks.

There has been rapidly growing interest in the use of algorithms for employment assessment, especially as a means to address or mitigate bias in hiring. Yet, to date, little is known about how these methods are being used in practice. How are algorithmic assessments built, validated, and examined for bias? In this work, we document and assess the claims and practices of companies offering algorithms for employment assessment, using a methodology that can be applied to evaluate similar applications and issues of bias in other domains. In particular, we identify vendors of algorithmic pre-employment assessments (i.e., algorithms to screen candidates), document what they have disclosed about their development and validation procedures, and evaluate their techniques for detecting and mitigating bias. We find that companies' formulation of "bias" varies, as do their approaches to dealing with it. We also discuss the various choices vendors make regarding data collection and prediction targets, in light of the risks and trade-offs that these choices pose. We consider the implications of these choices and we raise a number of technical and legal considerations.

Every field has people working behind the scenes,

A remarkable time of human promise has been ushered in by the convergence of the ever-expanding availability of big data, the soaring speed and stretch of cloud computing platforms, and the advancement of increasingly sophisticated machine learning algorithms. Innovations in AI are already leaving a mark on government by improving the provision of essential social goods and services from healthcare, education, and transportation to food supply, energy, and environmental management. These bounties are likely just the start. The prospect that progress in AI will help government to confront some of its most urgent challenges is exciting, but legitimate worries abound. As with any new and rapidly evolving technology, a steep learning curve means that mistakes and miscalculations will be made and that both unanticipated and harmful impacts will occur. This guide, written for department and delivery leads in the UK public sector and adopted by the British Government in its publication, 'Using AI in the Public Sector,' identifies the potential harms caused by AI systems and proposes concrete, operationalisable measures to counteract them. It stresses that public sector organisations can anticipate and prevent these potential harms by stewarding a culture of responsible innovation and by putting in place governance processes that support the design and implementation of ethical, fair, and safe AI systems. It also highlights the need for algorithmically supported outcomes to be interpretable by their users and made understandable to decision subjects in clear, non-technical, and accessible ways. Finally, it builds out a vision of human-centred and context-sensitive implementation that gives a central role to communication, evidence-based reasoning, situational awareness, and moral justifiability.

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, and we, as machine learning experts, may wonder how we can help. Here we describe how machine learning can be a powerful tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping society adapt to a changing climate. From smart grids to disaster management, we identify high impact problems where existing gaps can be filled by machine learning, in collaboration with other fields. Our recommendations encompass exciting research questions as well as promising business opportunities. We call on the machine learning community to join the global effort against climate change.

Since 1950, when Alan Turing proposed what has since come to be called the Turing test, the ability of a machine to pass this test has established itself as the primary hallmark of general AI. To pass the test, a machine would have to be able to engage in dialogue in such a way that a human interrogator could not distinguish its behaviour from that of a human being. AI researchers have attempted to build machines that could meet this requirement, but they have so far failed. To pass the test, a machine would have to meet two conditions: (i) react appropriately to the variance in human dialogue and (ii) display a human-like personality and intentions. We argue, first, that it is for mathematical reasons impossible to program a machine which can master the enormously complex and constantly evolving pattern of variance which human dialogues contain. And second, that we do not know how to make machines that possess personality and intentions of the sort we find in humans. Since a Turing machine cannot master human dialogue behaviour, we conclude that a Turing machine also cannot possess what is called ``general'' Artificial Intelligence. We do, however, acknowledge the potential of Turing machines to master dialogue behaviour in highly restricted contexts, where what is called ``narrow'' AI can still be of considerable utility.

Motion planning is an essential component in most of today's robotic applications. In this work, we consider the learning setting, where a set of solved motion planning problems is used to improve the efficiency of motion planning on different, yet similar problems. This setting is important in applications with rapidly changing environments such as in e-commerce, among others. We investigate a general deep learning based approach, where a neural network is trained to map an image of the domain, the current robot state, and a goal robot state to the next robot state in the plan. We focus on the learning algorithm, and compare supervised learning methods with reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. We first establish that supervised learning approaches are inferior in their accuracy due to insufficient data on the boundary of the obstacles, an issue that RL methods mitigate by actively exploring the domain. We then propose a modification of the popular DDPG RL algorithm that is tailored to motion planning domains, by exploiting the known model in the problem and the set of solved plans in the data. We show that our algorithm, dubbed DDPG-MP, significantly improves the accuracy of the learned motion planning policy. Finally, we show that given enough training data, our method can plan significantly faster on novel domains than off-the-shelf sampling based motion planners. Results of our experiments are shown in https://youtu.be/wHQ4Y4mBRb8.