In 1980, Digital Equipment Corporation began to use a rule-based system called R1 by some and XCON by others to configure VAX-11 computer systems. In the intervening years, R1's knowledge has increased substantially and its usefulness to Digital continues to grow. This article describes what is involved in extending R1's performance during the four year period.

Located in the Massachusetts Route 128 high technology area, the five laboratories that comprise GTE Laboratories generate the ideas, products, systems, and services that provide technical leadership for GTE. The two laboratories which conduct artificial intelligence research are the Computer Science Laboratory (CSL) and the Fundamental Research Laboratory (FRL). Artificial Intelligence projects within the CSL are directed towards the research techniques used in expert systems, and their application to GTE products and services. AI projects within FRL have longer-term AI research goals.

Probability concepts for ruled-based expert systems are developed that are compatible with probability used in data fusion of imprecise information. Confidence limits are defined as being proportional to root-mean-square errors in estimates, and a method is outlined that allows the confidence limits in the probability estimate of the hypothesis to be expressed in terms of the confidence limits in the estimate of the evidence. Procedures are outlined for weighting and combining multiple reports that pertain to the same item of evidence. The illustrative examples apply to tactical data fusion, but the same probability procedures can be applied to other expert systems.

This article describes our initial experience with building applications programs in a hybrid AI tool environment. Traditional AI systems developments have emphasized a single methodology, such as frames, rules or logic programming, as a methodology that is natural, efficient, and uniform. The applications we have developed suggest that natural-ness, efficiency and flexibility are all increased by trading uniformity for the power that is provided by a small set of appropriate programming and representation tools. The tools we use are based on five major AI methodologies: frame-based knowledge representation with inheritance, rule-based reasoning, LISP, interactive graphics, and active values.

Artificial intelligence (AI) will have profound societal effects. It promises potential benefits (and may also pose risks) in education, defense, business, law and science. In this article we explore how AI is likely to affect employment and the distribution of income. We argue that AI will indeed reduce drastically the need of human toil.

Many techniques for representing knowledge have been proposed, but there have been few reports that compare their application. This article presents an experimental comparison of four knowledge representation schemes: a simple production system, a structured production system. We built four pilot expert systems to solve the same problem: risk management of a large construction project. Observations are made about hoe the structure of the domain knowledge affects the implementation of expert systems and their run time efficiency.

Knowledge engineers qualified to build expert systems are currently in short supply. The production of useful and trustworthy expert systems can be significantly increased by pursing the idea of articulate apprenticeship independent of computer implementations. Making theoretical progress in artificial intelligence should also help.

The prototype system is written in Prolog, a language that has proved to be very powerful and easy to use for problem /rule development. The resulting prototype system (called EXPRS-Expert Prolog System) uses English-like rule constructs of Prolog code. This approach enables the system to generate answers automatically to "why" a ruled fired, and "how" that rule fired. In addition, a rule clause construct is provided which allows direct access to Prolog code routines.

AI technology transfer Is the diffusion of AI research techniques into commercial products. In this article, I will discuss AI technology transfer with particular reference to my experiences with the commercialization of INTELLECT. Next, I will describe my interpretation of the present market structure for AI products and some specific marketing perspectives. I will then briefly describe the product INTELLECT and its capabilities as an example of a state-of-the-art commercial system.

Minutes of the Fourth Annual Meeting of the American Association for Artificial Intelligence