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Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Inference - The Metropolis Algorithm - QuantStart

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In previous discussions of Bayesian Inference we introduced Bayesian Statistics and considered how to infer a binomial proportion using the concept of conjugate priors. We discussed the fact that not all models can make use of conjugate priors and thus calculation of the posterior distribution would need to be approximated numerically. In this article we introduce the main family of algorithms, known collectively as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), that allow us to approximate the posterior distribution as calculated by Bayes' Theorem. In particular, we consider the Metropolis Algorithm, which is easily stated and relatively straightforward to understand. It serves as a useful starting point when learning about MCMC before delving into more sophisticated algorithms such as Metropolis-Hastings, Gibbs Samplers and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. Once we have described how MCMC works, we will carry it out using the open-source PyMC3 library, which takes care of many of the underlying implementation details, allowing us to concentrate on Bayesian modelling.


A Visual Introduction to Machine Learning

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In machine learning, these statements are called forks, and they split the data into two branches based on some value. That value between the branches is called a split point. Homes to the left of that point get categorized in one way, while those to the right are categorized in another. A split point is the decision tree's version of a boundary. Picking a split point has tradeoffs. Our initial split ( 240 ft) incorrectly classifies some San Francisco homes as New York ones.


How machine learning will take off in the cloud

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A company that helps users to create their own websites now knows what kind of sites their 80 million users are building without pestering them with repeated questions. Wix, a Tel Aviv-based web development company, is using machine learning on Google's cloud platform to learn more about its users so it can help them find the images they need to build interesting and useful websites. That's just the beginning of how machine learning will be used in the cloud, according to industry analysts who say machine learning will be the biggest thing that's ever hit the cloud. David Zuckerman, head of developer experience for Wix, said machine learning in the cloud will be a boon to companies that don't have a major research division. "The cloud has brought this technology to everyone," he said.


How Google Photos uses machine learning to create customized albums

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The Google Photos app allows users to back up their photos from multiple devices in a single location, while also collecting pictures of the same people or objects into organized groups. Now, it will do those tasks fully automatically, creating an album that collects photos taken during a specific period -- such as a vacation -- organized into an album of showing the "best" photos from the trip. Those photos will also be tagged with well-known landmarks they depict and people that appear frequently, along together with a Google map that roughly depicts your journey. "It'll also add maps to show how far you traveled and location pins to remember where you went--because it's not always easy to recall the late-night diner you hit on your road trip, or which campsite you pitched the tent in when arriving after dark," the company said in a blog post on Tuesday. After that, the albums can be further customized, with photos removed from the album, added captions or locations on the map.


Is 2016 the year of Virtual Reality, AI or the IoT?

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The annual South by Southwest (SXSW) Interactive Festival, held in Austin last week, is an incubator of cutting-edge technologies and digital creativity and has become the place to discover the technology of tomorrow today."[1] This year, conversations around SXSW Interactive have been dominated by mobile apps, virtual reality, 3D printing, the internet of things, artificial intelligence and security but there are 3 areas that are beginning to gather real pace are set to have a profound effect on our industry. Fear of a robofuture was prevalent at SXSW, with apprehensions about how humanoid machines, artificial intelligence and deep learning will impact our future. John Havens, founder of The H(app)athon Project, went as far as to run a session called "The Dispensables", pointing to Gartner research predicting that 1/3 of all Americans will be out of jobs by 2025 due to automation. Dr Ishiguro suggested that both the home computer and ubiquity of smartphones have paved the way for more futuristic applications, including personal robots and digital retail assistants that can help customers with their clothes shopping.


Holberton School

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After a first all-day introduction to Deep Learning back in February, the Deep Learning class will continue in April and May. These classes will mostly be hands-on workshops (please don't forget to bring your laptop), with a minimum of formal theory to support these. Programming level: Beginner to advanced. Important: We will check IDs at the entrance. You will not be able to enter the school if you are not on the list. Please give us your real name when you register to this meetup.


Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Hosts Secretive AI and Robotics Conference

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Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) organized an exclusive conference this week in Palm Springs, California, that focused on robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), space exploration, and home automation, according to Bloomberg Business and reports from attendees. The event was called MARS, which stands for Machine-Learning Automation, Robotics and Space Exploration. Some of the guests on the invite-only list came from robotics companies such as Rethink Robotics, educational institutions like MIT, research institutes like ETH Zurich, and carmakers such as Toyota. Around 130 people were invited to the cozy affair. Much of the event is still shrouded in mystery.


Cognitive technologies: The real opportunities for business

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Artificial intelligence (AI) may sound like science fiction, but it is real, and becoming increasingly important to companies in every sector. The field of artificial intelligence has produced a wide variety of "cognitive technologies" that simulate human reasoning and perceptual skills, giving businesses entirely new capabilities and enabling organizations to break prevailing tradeoffs between speed, cost, and quality. Aimed at a general business audience, this course demystifies artificial intelligence, provides an overview of a wide range of cognitive technologies, and offers a framework to help you understand their business implications. Some experts have called artificial intelligence "more important than anything since the industrial revolution." That makes this course essential for professionals working in business, operations, strategy, IT, and other disciplines.


Tay, Microsoft AI, goes offline after Internet teaches her to be racist

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Tay, a chatbot artificial intelligence designed by Microsoft to respond like an emoji-happy young adult, appeared to be silenced within 24 hours after her launch when the Internet taught her to praise Hitler and repeat conspiracy theories. According to Tay's "about page," she is designed to learn how to respond and entertain users, the more they chat with her on social media sites. The bot is can play games, tell stories, tell jokes and comment on pictures sent to her, and she is active on Twitter, Snapchat, Kik and GroupMe, according to Cnet. "Tay is designed to engage and entertain people where they connect with each other online through casual and playful conversation. The more you chat with Tay the smarter she gets, so the experience can be more personalized for you," according to the page.


Microsoft's teenage AI shows I know nothing about millennials

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Microsoft has a new artificial intelligence bot named Taylor that tries to hold conversations on Twitter, Kik, and GroupMe. And she makes me feel terribly old and out of touch. Tay, as she calls herself, is a chatbot that's targeted at 18 to 24 year-olds in the US. Just tweet at her or message her and she responds with words and occasionally meme pictures. She's meant to be able to learn a few things about you--basic details like nickname, favorite food, relationship status--and is supposed to be able to have engaging conversations.