Illinois Lawmakers Just Passed America's Strongest AI Safety Bill The bill requires companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google to have third parties confirm they're following safety standards. The Illinois House of Representatives passed a bill on Wednesday requiring frontier AI labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind to have their safety practices audited by a third party. If signed into law, AI safety experts tell WIRED, it would be the nation's leading check on the power of major AI companies . The bill, SB 315, now heads to governor JB Pritzker's desk. In a post on social media on Wednesday, Pritzker said he plans to sign the bill, citing a need to hold Big Tech accountable.

Multi-agent systems built on large language models (LLMs) require many coordination choices that are difficult to fix a priori: which skill protocol to invoke, which agent role should perform a subtask, which model to bind to each role, how roles should interact, when to use retrieval or verification, and when to omit a step entirely. These choices interact with task regime and operational constraints, so static pipelines and one-off model comparisons provide only a limited view of the design space. This paper introduces AgensFlow, an open-source framework that treats multi-agent coordination as an online policy-learning problem under partial observability. The framework makes coordination decisions observable and learnable from repeated trajectories, rather than treating skill, role, model, topology, and evaluation choices as fixed pipeline design. AgensFlow is evaluated on two corpora: distributed-systems incident tasks and security-advisory tasks. The evaluation shows three main results: learned routing reaches a higher-quality operating point than a fixed pipeline baseline on coordination-heavy classes; skip:X isolates topology compression as a meaningful part of the substrate; and warm-started policy graphs can reduce exploration cost while preserving plateau quality. Overall, the results support that learned, auditable routing can improve coordination-heavy multi-agent workflows over static wiring.

Estimating how much an intervention helps a given individual the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is increasingly central to decision-making in medicine, economics, and policy, where an estimate is most useful when accompanied by a calibrated uncertainty interval. We study the few-placebo regime, in which one treatment arm is much smaller than the other, as arises in unequal-allocation trials and small-holdout $A/B$ tests. The standard estimator in this setting is the X-Learner, and a natural way to obtain credible intervals is to make its second stage Bayesian. We show that these intervals under-cover: they contain the true effect less often than their nominal level. We trace this to a structural cause the X-Learner's regression target inherits the bias of a nuisance model fitted to the small arm, so the posterior is centered away from the true effect and we find that the standard remedy, regressing an orthogonal doubly-robust score, is also unreliable here, since the regime's limited overlap leaves the estimator either highly variable or, once stabilized, biased once more. Both consequences reflect a pattern that extends beyond causal inference: a separately estimated variance is attached to a point estimate of a hard-to-learn quantity, and the point estimate's bias is not captured by that variance. We propose GP-CATE, which models each arm's outcome surface with a Gaussian process, so the scarce arm's uncertainty enters the posterior directly rather than as an unmodelled bias. Across synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks, GP-CATE attains calibrated coverage where the estimators we compare against including Causal Forest and BART do not, at the cost of intervals that are appropriately wide when the data are uninformative.

Estimating how an outcome responds to a continuous treatment (the Average Dose-Response Function, or ADRF) is a core causal-inference primitive. However, when outcomes possess heavy tails, standard robust double machine learning (DML) deliberately suppresses these extremes to stabilize the bulk average. In high-stakes settings, such as financial returns or climate losses, this omitted 1-in-1000 extreme event is the actual target quantity. Furthermore, current methods that read the tail from a model's residuals suffer from circular dependence, causing tail shape inferences to shift drastically based solely on whether the core estimator is switched between Huber and Welsch.The research proposes an ADRF estimator that emits a structured tail-shape output alongside the standard point estimate. Its tail diagnostic (PDHTE+JK) evaluates the per-treatment tail shape from the outcome centered by a pilot median, successfully breaking the circular dependence and rendering the diagnostic invariant to the choice of core method. The output encompasses four treatment-conditional quantities: tail shape $\hatξ(t)$, deep-tail return levels $\hat{Q}_α(t)$, conditional shortfalls $\hat{S}_α(t)$, the recovered mean ADRF, and an explicit refusal mechanism that declines extrapolation when extreme-value modeling is unsupported by the data. Compared to kernel-weighted quantile regression (QR), the proposed estimator reduces deep-tail ($α=0.001$) return-level MAE by 11% and conditional-shortfall MAE by 25.5% across a heavy-tailed panel. It also achieves a 20-29% MAE reduction in sample-scarce regimes ($n\le2000$). On freMTPL2 motor-insurance claims, it successfully triggered an explicit extrapolation refusal on the log-claim scale, which neither QR nor loss-only DML can produce.

Causal-discovery algorithms return a directed graph, yet provide no principled means of distinguishing edge directions identified by the data from those assigned without an identifying assumption. Under the standard Markov and faithfulness conditions, the observational distribution identifies only a Markov equivalence class; orientations within that class are not determined by the joint distribution and cannot be recovered from additional samples alone, but require either a functional restriction or an intervention. We introduce a protocol for observational causal discovery on continuous data that attaches to each candidate edge a discrete impossibility certificate: a RESOLVED code records the identifiability theorem under which the direction was committed, while an IMPOSSIBLE code records the failure mode together with the specific question a domain expert must answer to resolve it. The bivariate cascade is extended with five gated identifiability tiers LSNM, IGCI, Stein, MDL, and PEIT that abstain when their precondition test rejects. Two oracle primitives, the meta-hub query and the node-children query, jointly establish an upper bound of $1+K$ expert interactions sufficient to recover any DAG, where $K$ denotes the number of non-leaf vertices. Under an ideal-oracle assumption, the bound is met exactly on the asia, sachs, child, and alarm benchmarks.

Flow and diffusion generative models have established themselves as widely adopted density estimators for simulation-based inference (SBI), extending naturally from neural posterior estimation to likelihood and joint density estimation. Their principled optimization objectives and freedom from architectural constraints have driven rapid adoption across the natural sciences. Yet the most widely used SBI libraries remain PyTorch-based, leaving researchers who develop their forward models and analysis pipelines in JAX without a native option. We present GenSBI, an open-source library that implements flow matching, score matching, and denoising diffusion entirely in JAX. The library offers three transformer-based architectures -- SimFormer, Flux1, and a novel Flux1Joint that extends gate-modulated transformer blocks to joint density estimation -- all interchangeable through a unified interface that decouples generative method, neural backbone, and inference mode. GenSBI provides an end-to-end workflow from training through posterior calibration (SBC, TARP, LC2ST) and supports custom architectures with domain-specific embedding networks.

Deep generative models offer powerful tools for multivariate data analysis, but their black-box architectures are often unidentified and difficult to interpret. We introduce the Deep Discrete Encoder (DDE) Copula, an identifiable and interpretable generative model for multivariate data with arbitrary marginal distributions. The model places a hierarchical directed network of binary latent variables inside a copula framework, enabling flexible dependence modeling for mixed discrete and continuous data. Estimation is based on rank likelihoods, which decouple marginal modeling from posterior inference on the DDE parameters and avoid specifying the marginal distributions. We establish conditions for identification of the DDE copula parameters, ensuring that layer-specific parameters provide meaningful summaries of multivariate dependence. We also prove quotient-space posterior consistency for continuous margins under the exact rank likelihood and treat the extended rank likelihood for tied or mixed margins as a generalized likelihood, with concentration under an additional contrast condition. For computation, we propose a stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm for \emph{maximum a posteriori} estimation, together with initialization strategies that improve convergence. To learn network dimension adaptively, we extend Bayesian rank-selection priors to infer layer-specific widths. Simulations show strong finite-sample performance, and a personality-survey analysis reveals interpretable hierarchical latent structure in complex multivariate data.

High-fidelity simulation models are widely used to analyze complex stochastic systems, but their high computational cost motivates the development of cheaper surrogate models that approximate the simulation model's input-output relationship. In parallel, reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a powerful framework for making online decisions in stochastic environments, with increasing attention being given to the use of simulation models as training environments for RL models. We investigate a class of surrogate models suitable for accelerating RL training in settings where the reward structure, model parameters, or system dynamics change over time and explore their interactions with simulation models and RL models. Through numerical experiments on a stochastic service system modeled via discrete-event simulation, we demonstrate that leveraging surrogate models can substantially accelerate RL training and re-training.

Card payment fraud detection is usually framed as a supervised classification problem. Although this approach has generated practical progress, improvement has remained incremental despite major advances in model architecture. We argue that this is not mainly a failure of function approximation or optimization, but a consequence of structural information impairments inherent to the payment ecosystem. We formalize card authorization as a sequential decision problem with delayed, censored, corrupted, and counterfactually missing feedback. We derive a minimax regret lower bound showing that these impairments enter multiplicatively in the denominator of the achievable learning rate. The bound implies that improving issuer reporting quality or reducing censorship can yield larger reductions in the regret floor than increasing model complexity. We also show that heterogeneity across issuers worsens learnability beyond what average impairment rates suggest. The paper contributes a theory of why fraud detection in payment networks is fundamentally harder than in standard online learning settings, identifies ecosystem information quality as the key bottleneck, and provides a theoretical basis for prioritizing investments in reporting infrastructure, dispute process quality, and selective exploration. The paper is theory-first and does not rely on proprietary transaction data.

Safety defenses for large language models (LLMs) are typically trained and evaluated on single-turn prompts, yet real attacks often unfold as indirect, multi-turn probing. To defend against this more nuanced form of deception, we present a unified pipeline that generates realistic multi-turn deceptive question sets via multi-objective genetic prompt optimization with co-evolving mutation operators. We validate this dataset through a human study, which also revealed that early generations yielded the most convincing deception and practical constraints such as adherence filtering and ordering effects. Using this data, we were able to detect deceptive attempts to access prohibited information using simple, explainable geometric signals in embedding space coupled with a lightweight feed-forward classifier. Three geometric features (angular coverage, distance ratio, and linearity) augmented with pairwise similarity statistics led to a compact predictive model that achieved consistently high recall (0.89) across base, reworded, and truncated (three-turn) scenarios, with test-time F1 ranging from 0.74-0.86. The results support a central hypothesis that multi-turn deceptive intent leaves a stable geometric footprint that enables lightweight, transparent screening without expensive end-to-end training. We further discuss responsible uses, limitations, and paths toward larger, more diverse human-evaluated datasets. The primary contribution to artificial intelligence is the multi-objective evolutionary framework for prompt generation, and the engineering application is the deployment of a lightweight geometric detection system for LLM safety infrastructure.