Industry
Forecast Sports Outcomes under Efficient Market Hypothesis: Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of Odds-Only and Generalised Linear Models
Goto, Kaito, Takeishi, Naoya, Yairi, Takehisa
Converting betting odds into accurate outcome probabilities is a fundamental challenge in order to use betting odds as a benchmark for sports forecasting and market efficiency analysis. In this study, we propose two methods to overcome the limitations of existing conversion methods. Firstly, we propose an odds-only method to convert betting odds to probabilities without using historical data for model fitting. While existing odds-only methods, such as Multiplicative, Shin, and Power exist, they do not adjust for biases or relationships we found in our betting odds dataset, which consists of 90014 football matches across five different bookmakers. To overcome these limitations, our proposed Odds-Only-Equal-Profitability-Confidence (OO-EPC) method aligns with the bookmakers' pricing objectives of having equal confidence in profitability for each outcome. We provide empirical evidence from our betting odds dataset that, for the majority of bookmakers, our proposed OO-EPC method outperforms the existing odds-only methods. Beyond controlled experiments, we applied the OO-EPC method under real-world uncertainty by using it for six iterations of an annual basketball outcome forecasting competition. Secondly, we propose a generalised linear model that utilises historical data for model fitting and then converts betting odds to probabilities. Existing generalised linear models attempt to capture relationships that the Efficient Market Hypothesis already captures. To overcome this shortcoming, our proposed Favourite-Longshot-Bias-Adjusted Generalised Linear Model (FL-GLM) fits just one parameter to capture the favourite-longshot bias, providing a more interpretable alternative. We provide empirical evidence from historical football matches where, for all bookmakers, our proposed FL-GLM outperforms the existing multinomial and logistic generalised linear models.
Amazon will invest up to 25 billion in Anthropic in a broad deal
It's the third time Amazon has poured major money into the AI company. Amazon and Anthropic are strengthening their ties once again, with steep financial commitments made on both sides. Today, Amazon announced that it will invest $5 billion in the AI company, along with as much as $20 billion in additional payments if certain milestones are met. This news follows the initial $4 billion investment Amazon made in Anthropic in 2023 and a second $4 billion round from 2024 . On Anthropic's side, it has committed to continued use of Amazon's custom Trainium silicon for its AI models.
A Humanoid Robot Set a Half-Marathon Record in China
An autonomous robot from the company Honor ran a half marathon in 50:26, beating the human record by 7 minutes. A humanoid robot from the Honor remote-controlled team crosses the finish line during the E-Town Humanoid Robot Half Marathon in Beijing on April 19, 2026. Over the weekend in China, a humanoid robot shattered world half-marathon record--the human record--by seven minutes. The star performer was a robot developed by the Chinese company Honor (the smartphone maker), which finished the 13.1-mile race in 50 minutes, 26 seconds. The human record, set by Ugandan Olympic medalist Jacob Kiplimo, is 57 minutes, 20 seconds.
Google brings Gemini in Chrome to users in Asia and the Pacific
Outside of Japan, Google's chatbot is accessible on both desktop and iOS. Google has added a new sidebar to Chrome that allows users to access Gemini from any of their tabs. After debuting in the US, Gemini in Chrome is making its way to more markets. Starting today, Google is rolling out Chrome's built-in chatbot to users in Asia and the Pacific, including Australia, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam. The expansion comes after Google earlier this year made Gemini in Chrome available to people in Canada, India and New Zealand .
Apple CEO Tim Cook Is Stepping Down
John Ternus, the company's senior vice president of hardware engineering, will replace Cook as CEO on September 1. Cook will stay on as executive chairman. Tim Cook is stepping down as the CEO of Apple and transitioning to a role as the company's executive chairman, effective September 1, the company announced on Monday. John Ternus, Apple's senior vice president of hardware engineering, will replace Cook as CEO . Cook's departure had been speculated upon in recent months. In an era when every other Big Tech company has thrown significant resources at developing advanced AI, Apple is widely perceived as a laggard.
Can you best a math Olympiad? Test your skills with the world's largest database of problems.
MathNet contains 30,000 free math problems collected over half a century. More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. The International Mathematical Olympiad was first held in Romania in 1959. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. In 1959, countries around the world sent their most talented students to Romania to compete in the first-ever International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO).
Ben McKenzie Says Crypto Has a Secret Ingredient: Male Loneliness
The actor-director discussed his least favorite currency and read a series of mean tweets--about us!--at our inaugural WIRED@Night event. Ben McKenzie had a question: "When did WIRED die?" Specifically, the actor-director wanted to know when did WIRED "'DIE,' all caps." McKenzie wasn't asking for himself; he was engaging in the time-honored celebrity tradition of reading mean tweets . McKenzie, who famously played Ryan on before becoming a leading voice of crypto skepticism, was sharing the stage with WIRED senior correspondent Andy Greenberg for the first of what will hopefully be a series of smaller events that we are calling WIRED@Night. On April 16, about 100 people gathered at event partner Ace Hotel Brooklyn to sip drinks from Aplos, Faccia Brutto, The Sorting Table, and Manojo and ponder the future of cryptocurrency.
Chilling warning from Nobel physicist as date is set for humanity's final destruction
Nancy Guthrie sheriff's appalling past revealed: Beat handcuffed suspect so badly he needed intensive care, used VILE language about woman and lied in sworn statement Vance grounded at White House as Iran peace talks in turmoil and Trump declares: 'I expect to be bombing' New'Hollywood dose' pill: A-listers hooked on'youth elixir' that dermatologists say is anti-ageing, shrinks pores, smooths wrinkles... and even banishes rosacea Days after we got engaged, the love of my life told me he'd killed a man and buried him in a bog. I reported him to police... but then I made this irreversible mistake Ark of the Covenant's final resting place pinpointed by archaeologists as fresh search begins Ritzy Bay Area town torn apart after teacher's daughter, 16, crashed car while speeding and killed four friends... then posted a TikTok video that poured fuel on the flames Jordon Hudson extends her control over Bill Belichick's empire with secret move that is set to leave his family and friends furious Two CIA officers killed in Mexico when their car skidded off ravine and exploded after meeting about bust of'largest ever drug lab' Life-threatening cantaloupe recall in four states upgraded to FDA's highest risk level... 'reasonable probability of death' AMANDA PLATELL: Why Sarah Ferguson - with the ghost of Princess Diana at her side - is ready to sensationally blow up the Royal Family. She knows ALL their secrets... Trump confronts Xi as US forces seize Chinese ship carrying mysterious'gift' to Iran Team USA Olympics star Noah Lyles slammed for'horrible' reaction to his wife's wedding dress reveal In honour of the Queen's (purple!) reign: Kate mirrors late monarch's colourful wardrobe and wears her pearl earrings and necklace How to lose weight when perimenopause sabotages your metabolism: I'm a trainer but when I hit 46, I piled on the pounds overnight. The new'posh' drug that's easier to order than Uber Eats - and why all my middle-class friends have ditched booze and cocaine for it: JANA HOCKING Fury as murderer marries pen pal behind bars... as teenage victim's mom says: 'I'm serving a life sentence without my son' Autistic woman, 24, worked hard to build independent life for herself... now she's PARALYZED thanks to selfishness of stranger Chilling warning from Nobel physicist as date is set for humanity's final destruction The winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics has issued a stark warning to humanity, saying it could face an existential catastrophe within roughly 35 years. David Gross, who shared the 2004 Nobel Prize in Physics, warned that'due to the danger of nuclear war,' humankind may have just a little more than three decades left.
This prompt trick forces AI to stop flattering you and think harder
When you purchase through links in our articles, we may earn a small commission. Worried your AI chatbot is just yessing you? Here's a prompt that will make it challenge its own assumptions. I wish I had nickel for every time ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini told me I'd hit the nail on the head, stumbled onto a genius idea, or otherwise patted me on the back for a half-formed idea or ill-conceived plan. Flattery and premature congratulations are common foibles of generative AI chatbots, with some models more susceptible to being "yes-bots" than others.
War Memes Are Turning Conflict Into Content
The systems behind them--and the reasons we keep passing around war memes as entertainment--are more serious. As ceasefire announcements between the US and Iran --and separately between Israel and Lebanon --dominated headlines over the past two weeks, they also prompted a look back at how war spread online: through memes. There were jokes about conscription. Captions about getting drafted, but at least with a Bluetooth device. The song "Bazooka" went viral, with users lip-syncing to "Rest in peace my granny, she got hit by a bazooka."