Many experiments compare count outcomes among treatment groups. Examples include the number of successful signups in conversion rate experiments or the number of errors produced by software versions in canary tests. Observations typically arrive in a sequence and practitioners wish to continuously monitor their experiments, sequentially testing hypotheses while maintaining Type I error probabilities under optional stopping and continuation. These goals are frequently complicated in practice by non-stationary time dynamics. We provide practical solutions through sequential tests of multinomial hypotheses, hypotheses about many inhomogeneous Bernoulli processes and hypotheses about many timeinhomogeneous Poisson counting processes. For estimation, we further provide confidence sequences for multinomial probability vectors, all contrasts among probabilities of inhomogeneous Bernoulli processes and all contrasts among intensities of time-inhomogeneous Poisson counting processes. Together, these provide an "anytime-valid" inference framework for a wide variety of experiments dealing with count outcomes, which we illustrate with several industry applications.

After completely excluding the temporal dimension from the model parameter space, we introduced the temporal conditioning operation to handle the temporal information. In particular, this operation enables memory-dependent processing as in biological coding circuits. Figure 6: Performances under di erent hidden state and latent space dimension settings on Movie 2 Retina 2 data. For hidden state experiments, the latent space dimension is set to 32. And for latent space experiments, the hidden state dimension is 64.

The contextual linear bandit is an important online learning problem where given arm features, a learning agent selects an arm at each round to maximize the cumulative rewards in the long run. A line of works, called the clustering of bandits (CB), utilize the collaborative effect over user preferences and have shown significant improvements over classic linear bandit algorithms. However, existing CB algorithms require well-specified linear user models and can fail when this critical assumption does not hold. Whether robust CB algorithms can be designed for more practical scenarios with misspecified user models remains an open problem. In this paper, we are the first to present the important problem of clustering of bandits with misspecified user models (CBMUM), where the expected rewards in user models can be perturbed away from perfect linear models. We devise two robust CB algorithms, RCLUMB and RSCLUMB (representing the learned clustering structure with dynamic graph and sets, respectively), that can accommodate the inaccurate user preference estimations and erroneous clustering caused by model misspecifications. We prove regret upper bounds of O(ϵ T mdlogT + d mT logT) for our algorithms under milder assumptions than previous CB works (notably, we move past a restrictive technical assumption on the distribution of the arms), which match the lower bound asymptotically in T up to logarithmic factors, and also match the state-of-the-art results in several degenerate cases. The techniques in proving the regret caused by misclustering users are quite general and may be of independent interest. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show our outperformance over previous algorithms.

Areas under ROC (AUROC) and precision-recall curves (AUPRC) are common metrics for evaluating classification performance for imbalanced problems. Compared with AUROC, AUPRC is a more appropriate metric for highly imbalanced datasets. While stochastic optimization of AUROC has been studied extensively, principled stochastic optimization of AUPRC has been rarely explored. In this work, we propose a principled technical method to optimize AUPRC for deep learning. Our approach is based on maximizing the averaged precision (AP), which is an unbiased point estimator of AUPRC.

Public goods games represent insightful settings for studying incentives for individual agents to make contributions that, while costly for each of them, benefit the wider society. In this work, we adopt the perspective of a central planner with a global view of a network of self-interested agents and the goal of maximizing some desired property in the context of a best-shot public goods game. Existing algorithms for this known NP-complete problem find solutions that are sub-optimal and cannot optimize for criteria other than social welfare. In order to efficiently solve public goods games, our proposed method directly exploits the correspondence between equilibria and the Maximal Independent Set (mIS) structural property of graphs. In particular, we define a Markov Decision Process which incrementally generates an mIS, and adopt a planning method to search for equilibria, outperforming existing methods. Furthermore, we devise a graph imitation learning technique that uses demonstrations of the search to obtain a graph neural network parametrized policy which quickly generalizes to unseen game instances. Our evaluation results show that this policy is able to reach 99.5% of the performance of the planning method while being three orders of magnitude faster to evaluate on the largest graphs tested. The methods presented in this work can be applied to a large class of public goods games of potentially high societal impact and more broadly to other graph combinatorial optimization problems.