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Dangers of Bayesian Model Averaging under Covariate Shift
Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity approximate inference via full-batch Hamiltonian Monte Carlo achieve poor generalization under covariate shift, even underperforming classical estimation. We explain this surprising result, showing how a Bayesian model average can in fact be problematic under covariate shift, particularly in cases where linear dependencies in the input features cause a lack of posterior contraction. We additionally show why the same issue does not affect many approximate inference procedures, or classical maximum a-posteriori (MAP) training. Finally, we propose novel priors that improve the robustness of BNNs to many sources of covariate shift.
On the Generalizability and Predictability of Recommender Systems
While other areas of machine learning have seen more and more automation, designing a high-performing recommender system still requires a high level of human effort. Furthermore, recent work has shown that modern recommender system algorithms do not always improve over well-tuned baselines. A natural follow-up question is, "how do we choose the right algorithm for a new dataset and performance metric?" In this work, we start by giving the first large-scale study of recommender system approaches by comparing 24 algorithms and 100 sets of hyperparameters across 85 datasets and 315 metrics. We find that the best algorithms and hyperparameters are highly dependent on the dataset and performance metric. However, there is also a strong correlation between the performance of each algorithm and various meta-features of the datasets. Motivated by these findings, we create RecZilla, a meta-learning approach to recommender systems that uses a model to predict the best algorithm and hyperparameters for new, unseen datasets. By using far more meta-training data than prior work, RecZilla is able to substantially reduce the level of human involvement when faced with a new recommender system application.
On the Generalizability and Predictability of Recommender Systems
While other areas of machine learning have seen more and more automation, designing a high-performing recommender system still requires a high level of human effort. Furthermore, recent work has shown that modern recommender system algorithms do not always improve over well-tuned baselines. A natural follow-up question is, "how do we choose the right algorithm for a new dataset and performance metric?" In this work, we start by giving the first large-scale study of recommender system approaches by comparing 24 algorithms and 100 sets of hyperparameters across 85 datasets and 315 metrics. We find that the best algorithms and hyperparameters are highly dependent on the dataset and performance metric. However, there is also a strong correlation between the performance of each algorithm and various meta-features of the datasets. Motivated by these findings, we create RecZilla, a meta-learning approach to recommender systems that uses a model to predict the best algorithm and hyperparameters for new, unseen datasets. By using far more meta-training data than prior work, RecZilla is able to substantially reduce the level of human involvement when faced with a new recommender system application.
Asynchronous Actor-Critic for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning
Synchronizing decisions across multiple agents in realistic settings is problematic since it requires agents to wait for other agents to terminate and communicate about termination reliably. Ideally, agents should learn and execute asynchronously instead. Such asynchronous methods also allow temporally extended actions that can take different amounts of time based on the situation and action executed. Unfortunately, current policy gradient methods are not applicable in asynchronous settings, as they assume that agents synchronously reason about action selection at every time step. To allow asynchronous learning and decision-making, we formulate a set of asynchronous multi-agent actor-critic methods that allow agents to directly optimize asynchronous policies in three standard training paradigms: decentralized learning, centralized learning, and centralized training for decentralized execution. Empirical results (in simulation and hardware) in a variety of realistic domains demonstrate the superiority of our approaches in large multi-agent problems and validate the effectiveness of our algorithms for learning high-quality and asynchronous solutions.
Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Active Voltage Control on Power Distribution Networks
This paper presents a problem in power networks that creates an exciting and yet challenging real-world scenario for application of multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). The emerging trend of decarbonisation is placing excessive stress on power distribution networks. Active voltage control is seen as a promising solution to relieve power congestion and improve voltage quality without extra hardware investment, taking advantage of the controllable apparatuses in the network, such as roof-top photovoltaics (PVs) and static var compensators (SVCs). These controllable apparatuses appear in a vast number and are distributed in a wide geographic area, making MARL a natural candidate. This paper formulates the active voltage control problem in the framework of Dec-POMDP and establishes an open-source environment. It aims to bridge the gap between the power community and the MARL community and be a drive force towards real-world applications of MARL algorithms. Finally, we analyse the special characteristics of the active voltage control problems that cause challenges (e.g.
Making Sense of Dependence: Efficient Black-box Explanations Using Dependence Measure
This paper presents a new efficient black-box attribution method built on HilbertSchmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC). Based on Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS), HSIC measures the dependence between regions of an input image and the output of a model using the kernel embedding of their distributions. It thus provides explanations enriched by RKHS representation capabilities. HSIC can be estimated very efficiently, significantly reducing the computational cost compared to other black-box attribution methods. Our experiments show that HSIC is up to 8 times faster than the previous best black-box attribution methods while being as faithful. Indeed, we improve or match the state-of-the-art of both black-box and white-box attribution methods for several fidelity metrics on Imagenet with various recent model architectures. Importantly, we show that these advances can be transposed to efficiently and faithfully explain object detection models such as YOLOv4. Finally, we extend the traditional attribution methods by proposing a new kernel enabling an ANOVA-like orthogonal decomposition of importance scores based on HSIC, allowing us to evaluate not only the importance of each image patch but also the importance of their pairwise interactions.