Here are our recommendations for apps that help you stay focused on the task at hand. And with attention spans crumbling in the TikTok era, we now have an entire category of apps dedicated to helping you stick to what you're supposed to be doing. These apps all work more or less in the same way, giving you a straightforward method of tracking how long you're spending on a task, and offering some sort of incentive to keep going for the allotted amount of time. Sometimes you get a few extra features as well, like the ability to block access to other apps. In the interest of trying to write this specific article without switching between browser tabs and apps every two minutes, I gave three of the best focus tools a try.

The Ladder of Causation describes three qualitatively different types of activities an agent may be interested in engaging in, namely, seeing (observational), doing (interventional), and imagining (counterfactual) (Pearl and Mackenzie, 2018). The inferential challenge imposed by the causal hierarchy is that data is collected by an agent observing or intervening in a system (layers 1 and 2), while its goal may be to understand what would have happened had it taken a different course of action, contrary to what factually ended up happening (layer 3). While there exists a solid understanding of the conditions under which cross-layer inferences are allowed from observations to interventions, the results are somewhat scarcer when targeting counterfactual quantities. In this paper, we study the identification of nested counterfactuals from an arbitrary combination of observations and experiments. Specifically, building on a more explicit definition of nested counterfactuals, we prove the counterfactual unnesting theorem (CUT), which allows one to map arbitrary nested counterfactuals to unnested ones. For instance, applications in mediation and fairness analysis usually evoke notions of direct, indirect, and spurious effects, which naturally require nesting. Second, we introduce a sufficient and necessary graphical condition for counterfactual identification from an arbitrary combination of observational and experimental distributions. Lastly, we develop an efficient and complete algorithm for identifying nested counterfactuals; failure of the algorithm returning an expression for a query implies it is not identifiable.

We consider the problem of online learning in the presence of distribution shifts that occur at an unknown rate and of unknown intensity. We derive a new Bayesian online inference approach to simultaneously infer these distribution shifts and adapt the model to the detected changes by integrating ideas from change point detection, switching dynamical systems, and Bayesian online learning. Using a binary'change variable,' we construct an informative prior such that-if a change is detected-the model partially erases the information of past model updates by tempering to facilitate adaptation to the new data distribution. Furthermore, the approach uses beam search to track multiple change-point hypotheses and selects the most probable one in hindsight. Our proposed method is model-agnostic, applicable in both supervised and unsupervised learning settings, suitable for an environment of concept drifts or covariate drifts, and yields improvements over state-of-the-art Bayesian online learning approaches.

Segmentation of curvilinear structures such as vasculature and road networks is challenging due to relatively weak signals and complex geometry/topology.

Effectively predicting molecular interactions has the potential to accelerate molecular dynamics by multiple orders of magnitude and thus revolutionize chemical simulations. Graph neural networks (GNNs) have recently shown great successes for this task, overtaking classical methods based on fixed molecular kernels. However, they still appear very limited from a theoretical perspective, since regular GNNs cannot distinguish certain types of graphs. In this work we close this gap between theory and practice. We show that GNNs with directed edge embeddings and two-hop message passing are indeed universal approximators for predictions that are invariant to translation, and equivariant to permutation and rotation. We then leverage these insights and multiple structural improvements to propose the geometric message passing neural network (GemNet). We demonstrate the benefits of the proposed changes in multiple ablation studies. GemNet outperforms previous models on the COLL, MD17, and OC20 datasets by 34 %, 41 %, and 20 %, respectively, and performs especially well on the most challenging molecules. Our implementation is available online. 1

Almost every single image restoration problem has a closely related parameter, such as the scale factor in super-resolution, the noise level in image denoising, and the quality factor in JPEG deblocking. Although recent studies on image restoration problems have achieved great success due to the development of deep neural networks, they handle the parameter involved in an unsophisticated way. Most previous researchers either treat problems with different parameter levels as independent tasks, and train a specific model for each parameter level; or simply ignore the parameter, and train a single model for all parameter levels. The two popular approaches have their own shortcomings. The former is inefficient in computing and the latter is ineffective in performance. In this work, we propose a novel system called functional neural network (FuncNet) to solve a parametric image restoration problem with a single model. Unlike a plain neural network, the smallest conceptual element of our FuncNet is no longer a floating-point variable, but a function of the parameter of the problem. This feature makes it both efficient and effective for a parametric problem.

Welcome to our latest roundup of what's going on in the indie game space. If you're looking for something new to play this weekend, we've got a bunch of options for you. We've also got some interesting upcoming games to tell you about as well. In a press release announcing that Playdate Season 3 is coming later this year, Panic included a line that I've been thinking about a lot this week. Panic is currently relieved and happy that people can make amazing games for Playdate with just 16 megabytes of RAM, it said, a nod toward the ongoing RAM crisis .

Deep neural networks are powerful machines for visual pattern recognition, but reasoning tasks that are easy for humans may still be difficult for neural models. Humans possess the ability to extrapolate reasoning strategies learned on simple problems to solve harder examples, often by thinking for longer. For example, a person who has learned to solve small mazes can easily extend the very same search techniques to solve much larger mazes by spending more time. In computers, this behavior is often achieved through the use of algorithms, which scale to arbitrarily hard problem instances at the cost of more computation. In contrast, the sequential computing budget of feed-forward neural networks is limited by their depth, and networks trained on simple problems have no way of extending their reasoning to accommodate harder problems. In this work, we show that recurrent networks trained to solve simple problems with few recurrent steps can indeed solve much more complex problems simply by performing additional recurrences during inference. We demonstrate this algorithmic behavior of recurrent networks on prefix sum computation, mazes, and chess. In all three domains, networks trained on simple problem instances are able to extend their reasoning abilities at test time simply by "thinking for longer."

In unsupervised causal representation learning for sequential data with time-delayed latent causal influences, strong identifiability results for the disentanglement of causally-related latent variables have been established in stationary settings by leveraging temporal structure. However, in nonstationary setting, existing work only partially addressed the problem by either utilizing observed auxiliary variables (e.g., class labels and/or domain indexes) as side-information or assuming simplified latent causal dynamics. Both constrain the method to a limited range of scenarios. In this study, we further explored the Markov Assumption under time-delayed causally related process in nonstationary setting and showed that under mild conditions, the independent latent components can be recovered from their nonlinear mixture up to a permutation and a component-wise transformation, without the observation of auxiliary variables. We then introduce NCTRL, a principled estimation framework, to reconstruct time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured sequential data only. Empirical evaluations demonstrated the reliable identification of time-delayed latent causal influences, with our methodology substantially outperforming existing baselines that fail to exploit the nonstationarity adequately and then, consequently, cannot distinguish distribution shifts.