Industry
Rao-Blackwell Gradient Estimators for Equivariant Denoising Diffusion
In domains such as molecular and protein generation, physical systems exhibit inherent symmetries that are critical to model. Two main strategies have emerged for learning invariant distributions: designing equivariant network architectures and using data augmentation to approximate equivariance. While equivariant architectures preserve symmetry by design, they often involve greater complexity and pose optimization challenges. Data augmentation, on the other hand, offers flexibility but may fall short in fully capturing symmetries. Our framework enhances both approaches by reducing training variance and providing a provably lower-variance gradient estimator.
Realms for Integrated Agent Intelligence
AI agents today are mostly siloed -- they either retrieve and reason over vast amount of digital information and knowledge obtained online; or interact with the physical world through embodied perception, planning and action -- but rarely both. This separation limits their ability to solve tasks that require integrated physical and digital intelligence, such as cooking from online recipes, navigating with dynamic map data, or interpreting real-world landmarks using web knowledge. We introduce EMBODIEDWEBAGENTS, a novel paradigm for AI agents that fluidly bridge embodiment and web-scale reasoning.
MODEM: AMorton-Order Degradation Estimation Mechanism for Adverse Weather Image Recovery
Restoring images degraded by adverse weather remains a significant challenge due to the highly non-uniform and spatially heterogeneous nature of weather-induced artifacts, e.g., fine-grained rain streaks versus widespread haze. Accurately estimating the underlying degradation can intuitively provide restoration models with more targeted and effective guidance, enabling adaptive processing strategies. To this end, we propose a Morton-Order Degradation Estimation Mechanism (MODEM) for adverse weather image restoration. Central to MODEM is the Morton-Order 2D-Selective-Scan Module (MOS2D), which integrates Morton-coded spatial ordering with selective state-space models to capture long-range dependencies while preserving local structural coherence. Complementing MOS2D, we introduce a Dual Degradation Estimation Module (DDEM) that disentangles and estimates both global and local degradation priors.
Conformal PIDControl for Time Series Prediction
We study the problem of uncertainty quantification for time series prediction, with the goal of providing easy-to-use algorithms with formal guarantees. The algorithms we present build upon ideas from conformal prediction and control theory, are able to prospectively model conformal scores in an online setting, and adapt to the presence of systematic errors due to seasonality, trends, and general distribution shifts. Our theory both simplifies and strengthens existing analyses in online conformal prediction. Experiments on 4-week-ahead forecasting of statewide COVID-19 death counts in the U.S. show an improvement in coverage over the ensemble forecaster used in official CDC communications. We also run experiments on predicting electricity demand, market returns, and temperature using autoregressive, Theta, Prophet, and Transformer models.
Around a fifth of Steam Next Fest demos have a generative AI disclosure
We'll see how players react. Steam Next Fest has come around again, and this season, players may have some extra reason to look closely at the labels for whatever demos they test out. To do the math for you, that's 19.5 percent or just shy of a fifth of the games included in the showcase. The high prevalence is a bit surprising considering how many already released games have seen backlash from players when gen AI materials have been discovered. Many indie game leaders have also been particularly hawkish about when and how AI is used in development.
PSI: ABenchmark for Human Interpretation and Response in Traffic Interactions
Accurately modeling pedestrian intention and understanding driver decisionmaking processes are critical for the development of safe and socially aware autonomous driving systems. However, existing datasets primarily emphasize observable behavior, offering limited insight into the underlying causal reasoning that informs human interpretation and response during traffic interactions. To address this gap, we introduce PSI, a benchmark dataset that captures the dynamic evolution of pedestrian crossing intentions from the driver's perspective, enriched with human-annotated textual explanations that reflect the reasoning behind intention estimation and driving decision making. These annotations offer a unique foundation for developing and benchmarking models that combine predictive performance with interpretable and human-aligned reasoning. PSI supports standardized tasks and evaluation protocols across multiple dimensions, including pedestrian intention prediction, driver decision modeling, reasoning generation, and trajectory forecasting and more. By enabling causal and interpretable evaluation, PSI advances research toward autonomous systems that can reason, act, and explain in alignment with human cognitive processes.
Covariate-moderated Empirical Bayes Matrix Factorization
Matrix factorization is a fundamental method in statistics and machine learning for inferring and summarizing structure in multivariate data. Modern data sets often come with "side information" of various forms (images, text, graphs) that can be leveraged to improve estimation of the underlying structure. However, existing methods that leverage side information are limited in the types of data they can incorporate, and they assume specific parametric models. Here, we introduce a novel method for this problem, covariate-moderated empirical Bayes matrix factorization (cEBMF).
Provably Efficient RL under Episode-Wise Safety in Constrained MDPs with Linear Function Approximation
We study the reinforcement learning (RL) problem in a constrained Markov decision process (CMDP), where an agent explores the environment to maximize the expected cumulative reward while satisfying a single constraint on the expected total utility value in every episode. While this problem is well understood in the tabular setting, theoretical results for function approximation remain scarce. This paper closes the gap by proposing an RL algorithm for linear CMDPs that achieves eO( K) regret with an episode-wise zero-violation guarantee. Furthermore, our method is computationally efficient, scaling polynomially with problem-dependent parameters while remaining independent of the state space size. Our results significantly improve upon recent linear CMDP algorithms, which either violate the constraint or incur exponential computational costs.