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Active Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Post-deployment monitoring of healthcare AI requires statistically valid, label-efficient methods, but gold-standard labels from clinician chart review are expensive. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) and active statistical inference (ASI) reduce label cost by combining a small labeled sample with abundant model predictions, but both are restricted to a single predictor, a poor fit for modern clinical pipelines that have multiple predictors of differing cost and accuracy available at inference time. We propose Active Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference (AM-PPI), which routes each instance to a cost-appropriate predictor subset, samples gold-standard labels in proportion to the chosen subset's residual uncertainty, and reweights predictions to minimize estimator variance, all under a single deployment-time budget. AM-PPI generalizes ASI to leverage multiple predictors and extends Multiple-PPI from global per-predictor allocation to per-instance adaptive routing. We derive closed-form Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions for all three decisions and prove, via biconvexity and strong duality, that the resulting fixed point is a global optimum despite the joint problem being non-jointly-convex. We establish asymptotic normality with valid coverage, minimum-variance unbiasedness within the linear-prediction augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) class, and a closed-form criterion identifying when multiple predictors help. On synthetic data and three healthcare monitoring tasks, AM-PPI produces 10 to 40 percent narrower confidence intervals (CIs) than single-predictor ASI in the budget regime where routing matters, and matches the better baseline elsewhere.


Sinkhorn Treatment Effects: A Causal Optimal Transport Measure

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce the Sinkhorn treatment effect, an entropic optimal transport measure of divergence between counterfactual distributions. Unlike classical quantities such as the average treatment effect, this measure captures differences across entire distributions. We analyze this divergence as a statistical functional and show it can be written as a smooth transformation of counterfactual mean embeddings with an appropriate kernel. This characterization allows us to establish first-order pathwise differentiability in general, and second-order pathwise differentiability under the null hypothesis of equal counterfactual distributions. Leveraging this smoothness, we construct debiased estimators and use them to obtain asymptotically valid tests for distributional treatment effects with a fixed entropic regularization parameter. Because the power of the test depends on this unknown parameter, we further propose an aggregated test that combines evidence across a grid of regularization choices. Experiments on simulated and image data demonstrate the practical advantages of our estimator and testing procedure.


Sliced Inner Product Gromov-Wasserstein Distances

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Gromov-Wasserstein (GW) problem provides a framework for aligning heterogeneous datasets by matching their intrinsic geometry, but its statistical and computational scaling remains an issue for high-dimensional problems. Slicing techniques offer an appealing route to scalability, but, unlike Wasserstein distances, GW problems do not generally admit closed-form solutions in one-dimension. We resolve this problem for the GW problem with inner product cost (IGW), propose a sliced IGW distance that enjoys a natural rotational invariance property, and comprehensively study its structural and computational properties. Numerical experiments validating our theory are presented, followed by applications to heterogeneous clustering of text data and language model representation comparison.


Learnability and Competition in High-Dimensional Multi-Component ICA

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a foundational tool for unsupervised representation learning, yet its high-dimensional theory remains largely limited to single-component recovery. We develop an asymptotically exact mean-field theory for multi-component online ICA, capturing the coupling induced by simultaneous learning and orthogonalization. In the high-dimensional limit, the joint empirical distribution of learned estimates and ground-truth components converges to a deterministic process, yielding a closed ODE system for the overlap matrix between learned directions and true components. This characterization reveals a genuinely multi-component, initialization-driven phase structure: a decoupled regime, where estimates align with distinct components and evolve nearly independently, and a competition regime, where overlapping initializations induce orthogonality-driven conflicts, slow reorientation, and delayed convergence. Our steady-state analysis gives explicit learnability boundaries and competition conditions linking step size, data moments, and initialization. These conditions show that larger higher-order moments and competition shrink the stable learning-rate window, increase convergence times, and predict a staircase phenomenon in which the number of recoverable components changes discretely with the learning rate. Experiments on synthetic data and hyperspectral remote sensing data validate the predicted trajectories and phase behavior.


Core-Halo Decomposition: Decentralizing Large-Scale Fixed-Point Problems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study solving large-scale fixed-point equation x = F(x) with decomposition. Standard strict decomposition assigns each agent a disjoint block and evaluates updates using only owned coordinates. For most operators, however, a block update may depend on variables outside the block. Truncating these dependencies by strict decomposition changes the mean operator and creates structural bias that cannot be removed by more samples, smaller stepsizes, or additional consensus. We therefore propose Core-Halo decomposition, which separates write ownership from read-only evaluation context: each agent updates its own core and reads from an overlapping halo. By aligning the Core-Halo decomposition with the blockdependence structure of F, the original fixed-point problem can be implemented faithfully in a decentralized multi-agent system. We further characterize the fundamental obstruction faced by strict decomposition through a Bellman closure condition and a blockwise bias lower bound, showing that local-only updates can alter the original fixed-point operator. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments across a range of application settings, and demonstrate that Core-Halo achieves near-centralized performance while retaining the parallelism benefits of decentralization.


Simultaneous Monitoring of Shape and Surface Color via 4D Point Clouds: A Registration-free Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Advanced manufacturing technologies allow for the production of intricate parts featuring high shape complexity and spatially-varying material composition. Data fusion of point clouds with chromatic attributes provides 4D point clouds, a compact and informative representation that encodes both shape and material information. In this paper, we present a registration-free framework for Simultaneous Monitoring of shApe and Color (SMAC) via 4D point clouds. The proposed framework leverages Laplace-Beltrami operator spectral properties to capture and monitor geometric features and the relationship between shape and surface color. A combined monitoring scheme is proposed to effectively detect shape deformations and color anomalies, along with a spatially-aware post-signal diagnostic procedure to determine the source of change and localize color anomalies. Importantly, neither component relies on registration or mesh reconstruction, eliminating error-prone and computationally expensive preprocessing steps. A Monte Carlo simulation study and a case study on functionally graded materials demonstrate that SMAC achieves effective detection performance, particularly for subtle defects, while providing diagnostic capabilities to identify the source and location of anomalies.


Measuring and Decomposing Mode Separation via the Canonical Diffusion

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Mode separation, namely how sharply a distribution fragments into barrier-separated clusters, is a fundamental geometric property of densities, difficult to quantify in high dimensions. It is structurally distinct from dispersion, yet existing tools fall short: differential entropy rises with spread regardless of fragmentation, PCA orders directions by variance regardless of barriers, and mutual information requires a mixture decomposition one usually does not have. We measure mode separation through a single stochastic process intrinsic to the density: a unique reversible diffusion with $f$ as its stationary distribution and constant scalar diffusion coefficient. We extract two readouts from its autocovariance matrix: SSA (Sum of Squared Autocorrelations), a scalar barrier-sensitive measure; and DA (Dominant Autocorrelation directions), linear projections ordered by metastability rather than variance. Under an isotropic-Gaussian null, we derive a closed-form spectrum for the empirical autocovariance that generalizes Marchenko--Pastur, with an analytic upper edge that selects the lag at which DA is read off. Both readouts use only samples and a score function, scaling to high dimensions through pretrained score-based generative models via Tweedie's identity. We apply our framework to three settings: (i) synthetic Gaussian mixtures, where SSA tracks mutual information; (ii) SDXL text-to-image generations, where SSA and DA capture structure that entropy and PCA miss; and (iii) molecular dynamics of alanine dipeptide, where DA recovers the known slow backbone dihedrals from static samples alone.


Learning Generative Dynamics with Soft Law Constraints: A McKean-Vlasov FBSDE Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a generative framework for learning stochastic dynamics from endpoint and intermediate distributional observations. The method formulates generation as a McKean-Vlasov control problem in which terminal and time-marginal laws are enforced through soft energy constraints. The associated optimality system is a forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE) whose backward component receives a continuous drift induced by the marginal law penalties. This provides a principled alternative to hard interpolation or optimal transport maps between observed distributions: the model learns a stochastic path law whose dynamics remain globally coupled through the mean-field objective. We derive the reduced FBSDE system for quadratic control cost and constant diffusion, connecting terminal and marginal law flat derivatives to score-like training signals. The resulting neural solver is evaluated on low-dimensional distributional benchmarks, where it recovers smooth stochastic paths matching prescribed marginal laws. In a higher-dimensional ALAE latent space, endpoint supervision is used as a qualitative stress test for transporting non-smiling faces toward smiling ones in a pretrained representation. We then use articulated human motion as a structured high-dimensional case study on a curated AMASS low-to-high position dataset, using SMPL-H pose sequences and reduced pose representations. The experiments show that soft marginal law constraints can produce coherent stochastic trajectories whose intermediate distributions follow the observed evolution of human motion. The code is available at https://github.com/murex/deep-mkv-gen/tree/main.


Survey-aware Machine Learning: A Guideline for Valid Population Health Inference based on Scoping Review

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine Learning (ML) models trained on complex health surveys such as the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) often ignore primary sampling units, stratification variables, and sampling weights. This practice violates the independence assumptions of standard evaluation methods. As a result, estimates become biased, uncertainty is underestimated, and fairness assessments fail to reflect population-level disparities. We propose Survey-aware Machine Learning (SaML), a nine-step guideline that incorporates survey design metadata across the ML lifecycle. Through a scoping review of 16 methodological papers, we summarize existing work on weighted model training, design-based cross-validation, and survey-adjusted performance evaluation. We also identify gaps in hyperparameter tuning and deployment. We provide task-specific guidance that clarifies which steps are required for different analytical objectives. SaML provides a checklist for valid population inference from survey data.


Optimality of Sub-network Laplace Approximations: New Results and Methods

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Although the Laplace approximation offers a simple route to uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks, its reliance on inverting large Hessian matrices has motivated a range of computationally feasible low-dimensional or sparse approximations. A prominent class of such methods - sub-network Laplace approximations, constructs surrogates by restricting attention to a small subset of parameters. Existing approaches in this family typically rely on diagonal, layer-wise, or other architectural heuristics for subset selection, which ignore cross-parameter interactions and lack formal optimality guarantees. In this paper, we provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of the sub-network Laplace paradigm. We prove that all sub-network Laplace methods systematically underestimate the predictive variance of the full Laplace posterior, and that this bias decreases monotonically as the retained sub-matrix expands. Leveraging this insight, we propose two principled, analytically grounded sub-network Hessian approximations: \textit{Gradient-Laplace} selects parameters with the largest average squared gradients of the model output with respect to the parameters over a reference dataset; while \textit{Greedy-Laplace} iteratively refines this selection by accounting for off-diagonal interactions in the precision matrix. We establish theoretical guarantees characterizing their optimality properties and show that Gradient-Laplace provably outperforms existing heuristic approaches. Extensive numerical studies across diverse settings indicate that these methods perform strongly relative to existing benchmarks.