Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) remain vulnerable to transfer-based targeted attacks, where perturbations optimized on open-source surrogate encoders can generalize to closed-source MLLMs. A key challenge for improving adversarial transferability is to effectively capture the intrinsic visual focus shared across different models, such that perturbations align with transferable semantic cues rather than surrogate-specific behaviors. However, existing methods suffer from spatial-domain feature redundancy and surrogate-specific gradient signals, thereby hindering cross-model transferability. In this paper, we propose FRA-Attack, which addresses both challenges from a unified frequency-domain regularization perspective. For feature alignment, a high-pass DCT objective on patch features suppresses redundant global structures and concentrates the loss on the high-frequency band that carries the MLLMs' intrinsic visual focus. For gradient optimization, we introduce Frequency-domain Gradient Regularization (FGR), a \textit{model-agnostic} low-pass regularizer that modulates the surrogate gradient using only the geometric frequency coordinate, \textit{i.e.}, no surrogate-derived statistic is involved, so that FGR is model-agnostic by construction, removing surrogate-specific high-frequency artifacts while preserving transferable low-frequency directions. Together, the two components form a unified frequency-domain treatment of transferability. Extensive experiments on $15$ flagship MLLMs across $7$ vendors show that FRA-Attack achieves superior cross-model transferability, particularly with state-of-the-art performance on GPT-5.4, Claude-Opus-4.6 and Gemini-3-flash.

We study the problem of selecting covariates for unbiased estimation of the total causal effect.Existing approaches typically rely on global causal structure learning over all variables, or on strong assumptions such as causal sufficiency - where observed variables share no latent confounders - or the pretreatment assumption, which limits covariates to those unaffected by the treatment or outcome. These requirements are often unrealistic in practice, and global learning becomes computationally prohibitive in high-dimensional settings.To address these challenges, we propose a novel local learning method for covariate selection in nonparametric causal effect estimation that avoids both the pretreatment and causal sufficiency assumptions. We first characterize a local boundary that contains at least one valid adjustment set whenever one exists for identifying the causal effect, and then develop local identification procedures to efficiently search within this boundary.We prove that the proposed method is sound and complete. Experiments on multiple synthetic datasets and two real-world datasets show that our approach achieves accurate causal effect estimation while substantially improving computational efficiency.

We develop a mean-field theory of dropout as a perturbation of critical signal propagation at the edge of chaos. Dropout shifts the perfect-alignment fixed point, making the depth scale for information propagation finite even at critical initialization. We derive critical and crossover scaling laws for correlation decay and establish that smooth activations and kinked, ReLU-like activations constitute distinct universality classes, with different critical exponents and a universal two-parameter scaling collapse in detuning and dropout strength. The distinction traces to the analytic structure of the correlation map: smooth activations admit a Taylor expansion near perfect alignment, while kinked activations develop a branch point with universal non-analyticity. As a corollary, the framework yields saturated dropout profiles under fixed budget; a rank-flow tie-breaker then selects front-loaded schedules, substantially reducing held-out test loss at no extra computational cost, with accuracy gains as a consistent secondary effect. We test the predictions in MLPs and Vision Transformers and discuss CNN/ResNet extensions.

Reliable deployment of machine learning models requires reasoning under epistemic uncertainty--the ability to recognize when the operating distribution has shifted beyond the scope of what was encountered during training. This challenge is central to test-time adaptation (TTA), a paradigm in which a model pretrained on source distribution Ps receives unlabeled data from a target distribution Pt = Ps at deployment time. Existing TTA methods (Wang et al., 2021; Niu et al., 2023; Zhang et al., 2022a; Yuan et al., 2023; Su et al., 2022) improve accuracy under distribution shift by adapting model parameters using statistics computed from test batches, but they provide no formal guarantees about when predictions should be trusted or how much risk degrades as a function of shift magnitude. This gap is particularly concerning in safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving, medical imaging, and financial risk assessment, where a model that silently degrades under distribution shift can cause significant harm. The inability to quantify how wrong a model's predictions might be in an unseen environment fundamentally limits its trustworthy deployment.

The test-negative design (TND) is a resource-efficient observational study design that can assess vaccine effectiveness and exposure-proximal immune correlates of disease. The TND enrolls symptomatic individuals seeking diagnostic testing and compares case status by an exposure variable, such as vaccination status or immune marker level, that is measured at testing. While the TND reduces confounding by healthcare-seeking behavior, other sources of confounding may remain. TND studies may also have missing data in the exposure variable due to incomplete records or two-phase sampling designs. We present a targeted maximum likelihood estimation approach involving a semiparametric logistic regression model that targets a causal conditional risk ratio of symptomatic disease in the healthcare-seeking population. Under causal and missing at random assumptions, our method produces an efficient, asymptotically linear estimator that provides flexible, data-driven confounding control and valid causal inference when analyzing TND studies with missing exposure variable data. We evaluate our method's finite sample properties using plasmode simulations of a two-phase TND immune correlates study. We also apply our method to assess COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness and antibody marker correlates of COVID-19 from TND study cohorts derived from the Moderna Coronavirus Efficacy phase 3 trial.

Causal discovery from multivariate time series is challenging when causal effects may occur both across time and within the same sampling interval. This issue is especially important in applications such as neuroscience, where the sampling rate may be coarse relative to the underlying dynamics and contemporaneous effects need not form an acyclic graph. We study causal discovery in linear Gaussian structural VAR models under an equal noise variance assumption, meaning that the structural noise terms have a common variance. Unlike the DAG-based cross-sectional equal noise variance setting, the time-series setting considered here does not generally yield point identification of a unique causal graph. Instead, multiple structural VAR parameterizations can induce the same stationary observed process law. We introduce a notion of observational equivalence tailored to this setting and show that the corresponding equivalence class is characterized by orthogonal transformations of the structural equations together with a global positive scale. This characterization leads to an equivalence-aware model discrepancy, the observational alignment discrepancy, which compares structural models modulo transformations that preserve the observed law. Building on this theory, we propose ENVAR, a sparsity-based procedure that searches over the induced observational equivalence class for a sparse normalized structural representative. We evaluate the proposed methodology on synthetic structural VAR data and on an fMRI dataset.

Symbolic regression with genetic programming (GPSR) may suffer from overfitting and structural bloat, especially when noise is present. In this paper we evaluate description length (DL) and fractional Bayes factor (FBF) criteria as principled, data-efficient alternatives to heuristics for selecting compact expressions that generalise well. We implement DL using a Fisher-information-based parameter encoding and compare it to AIC and BIC across multiple datasets, including noisy synthetic benchmarks and real-world regression problems. We study three search/selection strategies: (i) multi-objective search for accuracy and program length followed by DL/FBF selection; (ii) multi-objective search using DL directly as an objective; and (iii) single-objective optimisation with DL/FBF as the fitness. Across datasets we find that DL/FBF post-selection improves test performance compared to AIC/BIC baseline and that BIC in combination with the same function complexity penalty from DL/FBF produces similar results. In contrast, using DL/FBF directly as a fitness function in single-objective GPSR frequently induces premature convergence to overly simple models. We conclude with practical guidance for using DL/FBF as robust model-selection tools in genetic programming workflows.

Shilling is the use of artificial bids to make competition appear stronger and push prices upward. We study repeated first-price auctions in which shilling affects feedback but not allocation: the learner wins or loses against the real competing bid, but after a loss observes the maximum of the real bid and an independent shill bid. Thus the manipulation changes what the learner observes and hence how it learns to bid, without changing the outcome of the current auction. We analyze regret with respect to the best bid benchmark, assuming that the shill-bid distribution is known. Even then, shilling can mask the real bid, while useful side information appears only through intermittent low-shill events. Our algorithm combines a robust interval-elimination branch, which ignores the shilled report and achieves the dynamic-pricing rate $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{2/3})$, with an optimistic branch that debiases losing-side reports and exploits the resulting suffix information when it is reliable and achieves the first-price auctions rate $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$. A validation and racing procedure lets the algorithm use these optimistic updates without knowing the right scale or feedback geometry in advance. We complement the upper bounds with a matching lower bound, up to logarithmic factors, in the single-active-region case. Overall, the results show that even feedback-only shilling can sharply alter the statistical difficulty of repeated bidding.

Survival analysis aims to estimate a time-to-event distribution from data with censored observations. Many existing methods either impose structural assumptions on the hazard function or discretize the time axis, which may limit flexibility and introduce approximation errors. We propose the Survival Diffusion Probabilistic Model (SDPM), a generative approach to continuous-time survival analysis. SDPM models the conditional distribution of the survival outcome, represented by the pair of observed time and censoring indicator, $\mathbb{P}(T,δ\mid \mathbf{x})$, using a denoising diffusion model. Under the assumption of conditionally independent censoring, conditional samples generated by the model can be transformed into survival function estimates using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. This formulation avoids parametric assumptions on the event-time distribution and does not require a discretization of the output time space. The model operates in a transformed target space, using standardized log-times and a continuous Gaussian-mixture representation of the censoring indicator. We evaluate SDPM on ten real survival datasets and compare it with five strong baselines, including tree-based, boosting-based, and neural survival models. Results show that SDPM achieves competitive predictive performance across C-index, integrated time-dependent AUC, and integrated Brier score. A study on synthetic Cox-Weibull data demonstrates that SDPM can recover the shape of an underlying continuous survival distribution more accurately than a strong nonparametric baseline when sufficiently many samples are generated. An ablation study confirms the importance of the proposed target-space transformations, which improve event-rate calibration, reduce invalid generated times, and provide consistent gains in predictive discrimination. Codes implementing the proposed model are publicly available.

The Pro Max model offers a touchscreen smart case with an AI note taker. Following the initial tease of its Thus AI chip, Anker announced the first earbuds with the component during its Anker Day event. The Soundcore Liberty 5 Pro and Liberty 5 Pro Max both utilize the chip for what the company calls Whisper Clear voice performance. Of course, the usual earbud features are here -- active noise cancellation (ANC), voice controls and personalized sound -- but there are some unique tools available on these models as well. Those include an AI Note-Taker on the Liberty 5 Pro Max and touchscreen charging cases for both.