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Agent Models of Political Interactions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

These group interactions can appear to an outside observer to mimic the intelligence of a single entity. In social sciences some prominent theorists have discussed emergence - perhaps without even realising it. In all events, many social phenomena can be modeled using emergence. This paper discusses emergence as a tool of political analysis, examines existing political simulations, and proposes a simple simulation using an agent model to determine emergent characteristics of a political system. The paper is divided into three sections: First, a description of emergence in social science.


Genetic Algorithms for multiple objective vehicle routing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The talk describes a general approach of a genetic algorithm for multiple objective optimization problems. A particular dominance relation between the individuals of the population is used to define a fitness operator, enabling the genetic algorithm to adress even problems with efficient, but convex-dominated alternatives. The algorithm is implemented in a multilingual computer program, solving vehicle routing problems with time windows under multiple objectives. The graphical user interface of the program shows the progress of the genetic algorithm and the main parameters of the approach can be easily modified. In addition to that, the program provides powerful decision support to the decision maker. The software has proved it's excellence at the finals of the European Academic Software Award EASA, held at the Keble college/ University of Oxford/ Great Britain.


The Stock Market as a Game: An Agent Based Approach to Trading in Stocks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Just as war is sometimes fallaciously represented as a zero sum game -- when in fact war is a negative sum game - stock market trading, a positive sum game over time, is often erroneously represented as a zero sum game. This is called the "zero sum fallacy" -- the erroneous belief that one trader in a stock market exchange can only improve their position provided some other trader's position deteriorates. However, a positive sum game in absolute terms can be recast as a zero sum game in relative terms. Similarly it appears that negative sum games in absolute terms have been recast as zero sum games in relative terms: otherwise, why would zero sum games be used to represent situations of war? Such recasting may have heuristic or pedagogic interest but recasting must be clearly explicited or risks generating confusion. Keywords: Game theory, stock trading and agent based AI.


The Correspondence Analysis Platform for Uncovering Deep Structure in Data and Information

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study two aspects of information semantics: (i) the collection of all relationships, (ii) tracking and spotting anomaly and change. The first is implemented by endowing all relevant information spaces with a Euclidean metric in a common projected space. The second is modelled by an induced ultrametric. A very general way to achieve a Euclidean embedding of different information spaces based on cross-tabulation counts (and from other input data formats) is provided by Correspondence Analysis. From there, the induced ultrametric that we are particularly interested in takes a sequential - e.g. temporal - ordering of the data into account. We employ such a perspective to look at narrative, "the flow of thought and the flow of language" (Chafe). In application to policy decision making, we show how we can focus analysis in a small number of dimensions.


Optimal Strategies for Simultaneous Vickrey Auctions with Perfect Substitutes

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

We derive optimal strategies for a bidding agent that participates in multiple, simultaneous second-price auctions with perfect substitutes. We prove that, if everyone else bids locally in a single auction, the global bidder should always place non-zero bids in all available auctions, provided there are no budget constraints. With a budget, however, the optimal strategy is to bid locally if this budget is equal or less than the valuation. Furthermore, for a wide range of valuation distributions, we prove that the problem of finding the optimal bids reduces to two dimensions if all auctions are identical. Finally, we address markets with both sequential and simultaneous auctions, non-identical auctions, and the allocative efficiency of the market.


Qualitative System Identification from Imperfect Data

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Experience in the physical sciences suggests that the only realistic means of understanding complex systems is through the use of mathematical models. Typically, this has come to mean the identification of quantitative models expressed as differential equations. Quantitative modelling works best when the structure of the model (i.e., the form of the equations) is known; and the primary concern is one of estimating the values of the parameters in the model. For complex biological systems, the model-structure is rarely known and the modeler has to deal with both model-identification and parameter-estimation. In this paper we are concerned with providing automated assistance to the first of these problems. Specifically, we examine the identification by machine of the structural relationships between experimentally observed variables. These relationship will be expressed in the form of qualitative abstractions of a quantitative model. Such qualitative models may not only provide clues to the precise quantitative model, but also assist in understanding the essence of that model. Our position in this paper is that background knowledge incorporating system modelling principles can be used to constrain effectively the set of good qualitative models. Utilising the model-identification framework provided by Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) we present empirical support for this position using a series of increasingly complex artificial datasets. The results are obtained with qualitative and quantitative data subject to varying amounts of noise and different degrees of sparsity. The results also point to the presence of a set of qualitative states, which we term kernel subsets, that may be necessary for a qualitative model-learner to learn correct models. We demonstrate scalability of the method to biological system modelling by identification of the glycolysis metabolic pathway from data.


Analogical Dissimilarity: Definition, Algorithms and Two Experiments in Machine Learning

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

This paper defines the notion of analogical dissimilarity between four objects, with a special focus on objects structured as sequences. Firstly, it studies the case where the four objects have a null analogical dissimilarity, i.e. are in analogical proportion. Secondly, when one of these objects is unknown, it gives algorithms to compute it. Thirdly, it tackles the problem of defining analogical dissimilarity, which is a measure of how far four objects are from being in analogical proportion. In particular, when objects are sequences, it gives a definition and an algorithm based on an optimal alignment of the four sequences. It gives also learning algorithms, i.e. methods to find the triple of objects in a learning sample which has the least analogical dissimilarity with a given object. Two practical experiments are described: the first is a classification problem on benchmarks of binary and nominal data, the second shows how the generation of sequences by solving analogical equations enables a handwritten character recognition system to rapidly be adapted to a new writer.


Verified Null-Move Pruning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this article we review standard null-move pruning and introduce our extended version of it, which we call verified null-move pruning. In verified null-move pruning, whenever the shallow null-move search indicates a fail-high, instead of cutting off the search from the current node, the search is continued with reduced depth. Our experiments with verified null-move pruning show that on average, it constructs a smaller search tree with greater tactical strength in comparison to standard null-move pruning. Moreover, unlike standard null-move pruning, which fails badly in zugzwang positions, verified null-move pruning manages to detect most zugzwangs and in such cases conducts a research to obtain the correct result. In addition, verified null-move pruning is very easy to implement, and any standard null-move pruning program can use verified null-move pruning by modifying only a few lines of code. 1. INTRODUCTION Until the mid-1970s most chess programs were trying to search the same way humans think, by generating "plausible" moves. By using extensive chess knowledge at each node, these programs selected a few moves which they considered plausible, and thus pruned large parts of the search tree.


I'm sorry to say, but your understanding of image processing fundamentals is absolutely wrong

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Among the five human senses through which we explore our surrounding, vision takes a unique and a remarkable place. The lion part of information about our near, medium, and distant environment comes to us via the vision channel. It is, therefore, not surprising that almost a half of our cortex is devoted to visual information processing (Milner & Goodale, 1998). In the course of millions of years of evolution, we have even developed a very special attitude to it - we feel an everlasting "hunger" for new visual information. We are "Infovores", as Irving Biederman (Biederman & Vessel, 2006), one of the founders of the contemporary vision theory, wittily defined.


M-DPOP: Faithful Distributed Implementation of Efficient Social Choice Problems

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

In the efficient social choice problem, the goal is to assign values, subject to side constraints, to a set of variables to maximize the total utility across a population of agents, where each agent has private information about its utility function. In this paper we model the social choice problem as a distributed constraint optimization problem (DCOP), in which each agent can communicate with other agents that share an interest in one or more variables. Whereas existing DCOP algorithms can be easily manipulated by an agent, either by misreporting private information or deviating from the algorithm, we introduce M-DPOP, the first DCOP algorithm that provides a faithful distributed implementation for efficient social choice. This provides a concrete example of how the methods of mechanism design can be unified with those of distributed optimization. Faithfulness ensures that no agent can benefit by unilaterally deviating from any aspect of the protocol, neither information-revelation, computation, nor communication, and whatever the private information of other agents. We allow for payments by agents to a central bank, which is the only central authoritythat we require. To achieve faithfulness, we carefully integrate the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) mechanism with the DPOP algorithm, such that each agent is only asked to perform computation, report information, and send messages that is in its own best interest. Determining agent i's payment requires solving the social choice problem without agent i. Here, we present a method to reuse computation performed in solving the main problem in a way that is robust against manipulation by the excluded agent. Experimental results on structured problems show that as much as 87% of the computation required for solving the marginal problems can be avoided by re-use, providing very good scalability in the number of agents. On unstructured problems, we observe a sensitivity of M-DPOP to the density of the problem, and we show that reusability decreases from almost 100% for very sparse problems to around 20% for highly connected problems. We close with a discussion of the features of DCOP that enable faithful implementations in this problem, the challenge of reusing computation from the main problem to marginal problems in other algorithms such as ADOPT and OptAPO, and the prospect of methods to avoid the welfare loss that can occur because of the transfer of payments to the bank.