We provide a systematic study of the problem of finding the source of a rumor in a network. We model rumor spreading in a network with a variant of the popular SIR model and then construct an estimator for the rumor source. This estimator is based upon a novel topological quantity which we term \textbf{rumor centrality}. We establish that this is an ML estimator for a class of graphs. We find the following surprising threshold phenomenon: on trees which grow faster than a line, the estimator always has non-trivial detection probability, whereas on trees that grow like a line, the detection probability will go to 0 as the network grows. Simulations performed on synthetic networks such as the popular small-world and scale-free networks, and on real networks such as an internet AS network and the U.S. electric power grid network, show that the estimator either finds the source exactly or within a few hops of the true source across different network topologies. We compare rumor centrality to another common network centrality notion known as distance centrality. We prove that on trees, the rumor center and distance center are equivalent, but on general networks, they may differ. Indeed, simulations show that rumor centrality outperforms distance centrality in finding rumor sources in networks which are not tree-like.

Learning linear combinations of multiple kernels is an appealing strategy when the right choice of features is unknown. Previous approaches to multiple kernel learning (MKL) promote sparse kernel combinations to support interpretability and scalability. Unfortunately, this 1-norm MKL is rarely observed to outperform trivial baselines in practical applications. To allow for robust kernel mixtures, we generalize MKL to arbitrary norms. We devise new insights on the connection between several existing MKL formulations and develop two efficient interleaved optimization strategies for arbitrary norms, like p-norms with p>1. Empirically, we demonstrate that the interleaved optimization strategies are much faster compared to the commonly used wrapper approaches. A theoretical analysis and an experiment on controlled artificial data experiment sheds light on the appropriateness of sparse, non-sparse and $\ell_\infty$-norm MKL in various scenarios. Empirical applications of p-norm MKL to three real-world problems from computational biology show that non-sparse MKL achieves accuracies that go beyond the state-of-the-art.

Concept drift refers to a non stationary learning problem over time. The training and the application data often mismatch in real life problems. In this report we present a context of concept drift problem 1. We focus on the issues relevant to adaptive training set formation. We present the framework and terminology, and formulate a global picture of concept drift learners design. We start with formalizing the framework for the concept drifting data in Section 1. In Section 2 we discuss the adaptivity mechanisms of the concept drift learners. In Section 3 we overview the principle mechanisms of concept drift learners. In this chapter we give a general picture of the available algorithms and categorize them based on their properties. Section 5 discusses the related research fields and Section 5 groups and presents major concept drift applications. This report is intended to give a bird's view of concept drift research field, provide a context of the research and position it within broad spectrum of research fields and applications.

Motivated by authentication, intrusion and spam detection applications we consider single-class classification (SCC) as a two-person game between the learner and an adversary. In this game the learner has a sample from a target distribution and the goal is to construct a classifier capable of distinguishing observations from the target distribution from observations emitted from an unknown other distribution. The ideal SCC classifier must guarantee a given tolerance for the false-positive error (false alarm rate) while minimizing the false negative error (intruder pass rate). Viewing SCC as a two-person zero-sum game we identify both deterministic and randomized optimal classification strategies for different game variants. We demonstrate that randomized classification can provide a significant advantage. In the deterministic setting we show how to reduce SCC to two-class classification where in the two-class problem the other class is a synthetically generated distribution. We provide an efficient and practical algorithm for constructing and solving the two class problem. The algorithm distinguishes low density regions of the target distribution and is shown to be consistent.

We study graph estimation and density estimation in high dimensions, using a family of density estimators based on forest structured undirected graphical models. For density estimation, we do not assume the true distribution corresponds to a forest; rather, we form kernel density estimates of the bivariate and univariate marginals, and apply Kruskal's algorithm to estimate the optimal forest on held out data. We prove an oracle inequality on the excess risk of the resulting estimator relative to the risk of the best forest. For graph estimation, we consider the problem of estimating forests with restricted tree sizes. We prove that finding a maximum weight spanning forest with restricted tree size is NP-hard, and develop an approximation algorithm for this problem. Viewing the tree size as a complexity parameter, we then select a forest using data splitting, and prove bounds on excess risk and structure selection consistency of the procedure. Experiments with simulated data and microarray data indicate that the methods are a practical alternative to Gaussian graphical models.

Stochastic networks are a plausible representation of the relational information among entities in dynamic systems such as living cells or social communities. While there is a rich literature in estimating a static or temporally invariant network from observation data, little has been done toward estimating time-varying networks from time series of entity attributes. In this paper we present two new machine learning methods for estimating time-varying networks, which both build on a temporally smoothed $l_1$-regularized logistic regression formalism that can be cast as a standard convex-optimization problem and solved efficiently using generic solvers scalable to large networks. We report promising results on recovering simulated time-varying networks. For real data sets, we reverse engineer the latent sequence of temporally rewiring political networks between Senators from the US Senate voting records and the latent evolving regulatory networks underlying 588 genes across the life cycle of Drosophila melanogaster from the microarray time course.

There is growing body of learning problems for which it is natural to organize the parameters into matrix, so as to appropriately regularize the parameters under some matrix norm (in order to impose some more sophisticated prior knowledge). This work describes and analyzes a systematic method for constructing such matrix-based, regularization methods. In particular, we focus on how the underlying statistical properties of a given problem can help us decide which regularization function is appropriate. Our methodology is based on the known duality fact: that a function is strongly convex with respect to some norm if and only if its conjugate function is strongly smooth with respect to the dual norm. This result has already been found to be a key component in deriving and analyzing several learning algorithms. We demonstrate the potential of this framework by deriving novel generalization and regret bounds for multi-task learning, multi-class learning, and kernel learning.

In this book we introduce a mathematically formalized concept of emotion, robot's education and other psychological parameters of intelligent robots. We also introduce unitless coefficients characterizing an emotional memory of a robot. Besides, the effect of a robot's memory upon its emotional behavior is studied, and theorems defining fellowship and conflicts in groups of robots are proved. Also unitless parameters describing emotional states of those groups are introduced, and a rule of making alternative (binary) decisions based on emotional selection is given. We introduce a concept of equivalent educational process for robots and a concept of efficiency coefficient of an educational process, and suggest an algorithm of emotional contacts within a group of robots. And generally, we present and describe a model of a virtual reality with emotional robots. The book is meant for mathematical modeling specialists and emotional robot software developers.

We consider the problem of learning about and comparing the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies on the basis of observational data. We formulate this within a probabilistic decision-theoretic framework. Our approach is compared with related work by Robins and others: in particular, we show how Robins's 'G-computation' algorithm arises naturally from this decision-theoretic perspective. Careful attention is paid to the mathematical and substantive conditions required to justify the use of this formula. These conditions revolve around a property we term stability, which relates the probabilistic behaviours of observational and interventional regimes. We show how an assumption of 'sequential randomization' (or 'no unmeasured confounders'), or an alternative assumption of 'sequential irrelevance', can be used to infer stability. Probabilistic influence diagrams are used to simplify manipulations, and their power and limitations are discussed. We compare our approach with alternative formulations based on causal DAGs or potential response models. We aim to show that formulating the problem of assessing dynamic treatment strategies as a problem of decision analysis brings clarity, simplicity and generality.

Diagrammatic reasoning (DR) is pervasive in human problem solving as a powerful adjunct to symbolic reasoning based on language-like representations. The research reported in this paper is a contribution to building a general purpose DR system as an extension to a SOAR-like problem solving architecture. The work is in a framework in which DR is modeled as a process where subtasks are solved, as appropriate, either by inference from symbolic representations or by interaction with a diagram, i.e., perceiving specified information from a diagram or modifying/creating objects in a diagram in specified ways according to problem solving needs. The perceptions and actions in most DR systems built so far are hand-coded for the specific application, even when the rest of the system is built using the general architecture. The absence of a general framework for executing perceptions/actions poses as a major hindrance to using them opportunistically -- the essence of open-ended search in problem solving. Our goal is to develop a framework for executing a wide variety of specified perceptions and actions across tasks/domains without human intervention. We observe that the domain/task-specific visual perceptions/actions can be transformed into domain/task-independent spatial problems. We specify a spatial problem as a quantified constraint satisfaction problem in the real domain using an open-ended vocabulary of properties, relations and actions involving three kinds of diagrammatic objects -- points, curves, regions. Solving a spatial problem from this specification requires computing the equivalent simplified quantifier-free expression, the complexity of which is inherently doubly exponential. We represent objects as configuration of simple elements to facilitate decomposition of complex problems into simpler and similar subproblems. We show that, if the symbolic solution to a subproblem can be expressed concisely, quantifiers can be eliminated from spatial problems in low-order polynomial time using similar previously solved subproblems. This requires determining the similarity of two problems, the existence of a mapping between them computable in polynomial time, and designing a memory for storing previously solved problems so as to facilitate search. The efficacy of the idea is shown by time complexity analysis. We demonstrate the proposed approach by executing perceptions and actions involved in DR tasks in two army applications.