The human vision system is able to effortlessly perceive both short-range and long-range motion patterns in complex dynamic scenes. Previous work has assumed that two different mechanisms are involved in processing these two types of motion. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical model as a unified framework for modeling both short-range and long-range motion perception. Our model consists of two key components: a data likelihood that proposes multiple motion hypotheses using nonlinear matching, and a hierarchical prior that imposes slowness and spatial smoothness constraints on the motion field at multiple scales. We tested our model on two types of stimuli, random dot kinematograms and multiple-aperture stimuli, both commonly used in human vision research. We demonstrate that the hierarchical model adequately accounts for human performance in psychophysical experiments.

We identify and investigate a strong connection between probabilistic inference and differential privacy, the latter being a recent privacy definition that permits only indirect observation of data through noisy measurement. Previous research on differential privacy has focused on designing measurement processes whose output is likely to be useful on its own. We consider the potential of applying probabilistic inference to the measurements and measurement process to derive posterior distributions over the data sets and model parameters thereof. We find that probabilistic inference can improve accuracy, integrate multiple observations, measure uncertainty, and even provide posterior distributions over quantities that were not directly measured.

While clinicians can accurately identify different types of heartbeats in electrocardiograms (ECGs) from different patients, researchers have had limited success in applying supervised machine learning to the same task. The problem is made challenging by the variety of tasks, inter- and intra-patient differences, an often severe class imbalance, and the high cost of getting cardiologists to label data for individual patients. We address these difficulties using active learning to perform patient-adaptive and task-adaptive heartbeat classification. When tested on a benchmark database of cardiologist annotated ECG recordings, our method had considerably better performance than other recently proposed methods on the two primary classification tasks recommended by the Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation. Additionally, our method required over 90% less patient-specific training data than the methods to which we compared it.

The reinforcement learning community has explored many approaches to obtain- ing value estimates and models to guide decision making; these approaches, how- ever, do not usually provide a measure of confidence in the estimate. Accurate estimates of an agent’s confidence are useful for many applications, such as bi- asing exploration and automatically adjusting parameters to reduce dependence on parameter-tuning. Computing confidence intervals on reinforcement learning value estimates, however, is challenging because data generated by the agent- environment interaction rarely satisfies traditional assumptions. Samples of value- estimates are dependent, likely non-normally distributed and often limited, partic- ularly in early learning when confidence estimates are pivotal. In this work, we investigate how to compute robust confidences for value estimates in continuous Markov decision processes. We illustrate how to use bootstrapping to compute confidence intervals online under a changing policy (previously not possible) and prove validity under a few reasonable assumptions. We demonstrate the applica- bility of our confidence estimation algorithms with experiments on exploration, parameter estimation and tracking.

We propose a discriminative latent model for annotating images with unaligned object-level textual annotations. Instead of using the bag-of-words image representation currently popular in the computer vision community, our model explicitly captures more intricate relationships underlying visual and textual information. In particular, we model the mapping that translates image regions to annotations. This mapping allows us to relate image regions to their corresponding annotation terms. We also model the overall scene label as latent information. This allows us to cluster test images. Our training data consist of images and their associated annotations. But we do not have access to the ground-truth region-to-annotation mapping or the overall scene label. We develop a novel variant of the latent SVM framework to model them as latent variables. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model compared with other baseline methods.

We consider problems for which one has incomplete binary matrices that evolve with time (e.g., the votes of legislators on particular legislation, with each year characterized by a different such matrix). An objective of such analysis is to infer structure and inter-relationships underlying the matrices, here defined by latent features associated with each axis of the matrix. In addition, it is assumed that documents are available for the entities associated with at least one of the matrix axes. By jointly analyzing the matrices and documents, one may be used to inform the other within the analysis, and the model offers the opportunity to predict matrix values (e.g., votes) based only on an associated document (e.g., legislation). The research presented here merges two areas of machine-learning that have previously been investigated separately: incomplete-matrix analysis and topic modeling. The analysis is performed from a Bayesian perspective, with efficient inference constituted via Gibbs sampling. The framework is demonstrated by considering all voting data and available documents (legislation) during the 220-year lifetime of the United States Senate and House of Representatives.

Spontaneous brain activity, as observed in functional neuroimaging, has been shown to display reproducible structure that expresses brain architecture and carries markers of brain pathologies. An important view of modern neuroscience is that such large-scale structure of coherent activity reflects modularity properties of brain connectivity graphs. However, to date, there has been no demonstration that the limited and noisy data available in spontaneous activity observations could be used to learn full-brain probabilistic models that generalize to new data. Learning such models entails two main challenges: i) modeling full brain connectivity is a difficult estimation problem that faces the curse of dimensionality and ii) variability between subjects, coupled with the variability of functional signals between experimental runs, makes the use of multiple datasets challenging. We describe subject-level brain functional connectivity structure as a multivariate Gaussian process and introduce a new strategy to estimate it from group data, by imposing a common structure on the graphical model in the population. We show that individual models learned from functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data using this population prior generalize better to unseen data than models based on alternative regularization schemes. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a cross-validated model of spontaneous brain activity. Finally, we use the estimated graphical model to explore the large-scale characteristics of functional architecture and show for the first time that known cognitive networks appear as the integrated communities of functional connectivity graph.

We propose an algorithm for simultaneously estimating state transitions among neural states, the number of neural states, and nonstationary firing rates using a switching state space model (SSSM). This model enables us to detect state transitions based not only on the discontinuous changes of mean firing rates but also on discontinuous changes in temporal profiles of firing rates, e.g., temporal correlation. We derive a variational Bayes algorithm for a non-Gaussian SSSM whose non-Gaussian property is caused by binary spike events. Synthetic data analysis reveals the high performance of our algorithm in estimating state transitions, the number of neural states, and nonstationary firing rates compared to previous methods. We also analyze neural data recorded from the medial temporal area. The statistically detected neural states probably coincide with transient and sustained states, which have been detected heuristically. Estimated parameters suggest that our algorithm detects the state transition based on discontinuous change in the temporal correlation of firing rates, which transitions previous methods cannot detect. This result suggests the advantage of our algorithm in real-data analysis.

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death globally, resulting in 17 million deaths each year. Despite the availability of various treatment options, existing techniques based upon conventional medical knowledge often fail to identify patients who might have benefited from more aggressive therapy. In this paper, we describe and evaluate a novel unsupervised machine learning approach for cardiac risk stratification. The key idea of our approach is to avoid specialized medical knowledge, and assess patient risk using symbolic mismatch, a new metric to assess similarity in long-term time-series activity. We hypothesize that high risk patients can be identified using symbolic mismatch, as individuals in a population with unusual long-term physiological activity. We describe related approaches that build on these ideas to provide improved medical decision making for patients who have recently suffered coronary attacks. We first describe how to compute the symbolic mismatch between pairs of long term electrocardiographic (ECG) signals. This algorithm maps the original signals into a symbolic domain, and provides a quantitative assessment of the difference between these symbolic representations of the original signals. We then show how this measure can be used with each of a one-class SVM, a nearest neighbor classifier, and hierarchical clustering to improve risk stratification. We evaluated our methods on a population of 686 cardiac patients with available long-term electrocardiographic data. In a univariate analysis, all of the methods provided a statistically significant association with the occurrence of a major adverse cardiac event in the next 90 days. In a multivariate analysis that incorporated the most widely used clinical risk variables, the nearest neighbor and hierarchical clustering approaches were able to statistically significantly distinguish patients with a roughly two-fold risk of suffering a major adverse cardiac event in the next 90 days.

We provide a sound and consistent foundation for the use of \emph{nonrandom} exploration data in ``contextual bandit'' or ``partially labeled'' settings where only the value of a chosen action is learned. The primary challenge in a variety of settings is that the exploration policy, in which ``offline'' data is logged, is not explicitly known. Prior solutions here require either control of the actions during the learning process, recorded random exploration, or actions chosen obliviously in a repeated manner. The techniques reported here lift these restrictions, allowing the learning of a policy for choosing actions given features from historical data where no randomization occurred or was logged. We empirically verify our solution on two reasonably sized sets of real-world data obtained from an Internet %online advertising company.