Spread of infections (diseases, ideas, etc.) in a network can be modeled as the evolution of states of nodes in a graph as a function of the states of their neighbors. Given an initial configuration of a network in which a subset of the nodes have been infected, and an infection propagation function that specifies how the states of the nodes evolve over time, we show how to use model checking to identify, verify, and evaluate the effectiveness of intervention policies for containing the propagation of infection over such networks.

Traditionally routing has focused on finding shortest paths in networks with positive, static edge costs representing the distance between two nodes. Energy-optimal routing for electric vehicles creates novel algorithmic challenges, as simply understanding edge costs as energy values and applying standard algorithms does not work. First, edge costs can be negative due to recuperation, excluding Dijkstra-like algorithms. Second, edge costs may depend on parameters such as vehicle weight only known at query time, ruling out existing preprocessing techniques. Third, considering battery capacity limitations implies that the cost of a path is no longer just the sum of its edge costs. This paper shows how these challenges can be met within the framework of A* search. We show how the specific domain gives rise to a consistent heuristic function yielding an O(n 2 ) routing algorithm. Moreover, we show how battery constraints can be treated by dynamically adapting edge costs and hence can be handled in the same way as parameters given at query time, without increasing run-time complexity. Experimental results with real road networks and vehicle data demonstrate the advantages of our solution.

One proposed approach to managing a large complex Smart Grid is through Broker Agents who buy electrical power from distributed producers, and also sell power to consumers, via a Tariff Market--a new market mechanism where Broker Agents publish concurrent bid and ask prices. A key challenge is the specification of the market strategy that the Broker Agents should use in order to earn profits while maintaining the market's balance of supply and demand. Interestingly, previous work has shown that a Broker Agent can learn its strategy, using Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and Q-learning, and outperform other Broker Agents that use predetermined or randomized strategies. In this work, we investigate the more representative scenario in which multiple Broker Agents, instead of a single one, are independently learning their strategies. Using a simulation environment based on real data, we find that Broker Agents who employ periodic increases in exploration achieve higher rewards. We also find that varying levels of market dominance in customer allocation models result in remarkably distinct outcomes in market prices and aggregate Broker Agent rewards. The latter set of results can be explained by established economic principles regarding the emergence of monopolies in market-based competition, further validating our approach.

Information about the spread of crop disease is vital in developing countries, and as a result the governments of such countries devote scarce resources to gathering such data. Unfortunately, current surveys tend to be slow and expensive, and hence also tend to gather insufficient quantities of data. In this work we describe three general methods for improving the use of survey resources by performing data collection with mobile devices and by directing survey progress through the application of AI techniques. First, we describe a spatial disease density model based on Gaussian process ordinal regression, which offers a better representation of the disease level distribution, as compared to the statistical approaches typically applied. Second, we show how this model can be used to dynamically route survey teams to obtain the most valuable survey possible given a fixed budget. Third, we demonstrate that the diagnosis of plant disease can be automated using images taken by a camera phone, enabling data collection by survey workers with only basic training. We have applied our methods to the specific challenge of viral cassava disease monitoring in Uganda, for which we have implemented a real-time mobile survey system that will soon see practical use.

Sustainable resource management in many domains presents large continuous stochastic optimization problems, which can often be modeled as Markov decision processes (MDPs). To solve such large MDPs, we identify and leverage linearity in state and action sets that is common in resource management. In particular, we introduce linear dynamic programs (LDPs) that generalize resource management problems and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs). We show that the LDP framework makes it possible to adapt point-based methods--the state of the art in solving POMDPs--to solving LDPs. The experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of this approach in managing the water level of a river reservoir. Finally, we discuss the relationship with dual dynamic programming, a method used to optimize hydroelectric systems.

The conservation of wildlife corridors between existing habitat preserves is important for combating the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation facing species of concern. We introduce the Steiner Multigraph Problem to model the problem of minimum-cost wildlife corridor design for multiple species with different landscape requirements. This problem can also model other analogous settings in wireless and social networks. As a generalization of Steiner forest, the goal is to find a minimum-cost subgraph that connects multiple sets of terminals. In contrast to Steiner forest, each set of terminals can only be connected via a subset of the nodes. Generalizing Steiner forest in this way makes the problem NP-hard even when restricted to two pairs of terminals. However, we show that if the node subsets have a nested structure, the problem admits a fixed-parameter tractable algorithm in the number of terminals. We successfully test exact and heuristic solution approaches on a wildlife corridor instance for wolverines and lynx in western Montana, showing that though the problem is computationally hard, heuristics perform well, and provably optimal solutions can still be obtained.

In this paper we present a data-driven approach to modeling end user energy consumption in residential and commercial buildings. Our model is based upon a data set of monthly electricity and gas bills, collected by a utility over the course of several years, for approximately 6,500 buildings in Cambridge, MA. In addition, we use publicly available tax assessor records and geographical survey information to determine corresponding features for the buildings. Using both parametric and non-parametric learning methods, we learn models that predict distributions over energy usage based upon these features, and use these models to develop two end-user systems. For utilities or authorized institutions (those who may obtain access to the full data) we provide a system that visualizes energy consumption for each building in the city; this allows companies to quickly identify outliers (buildings which use much more energy than expected even after conditioning on the relevant predictors), for instance allowing them to target homes for potential retrofits or tiered pricing schemes. For other end users, we provide an interface for entering their own electricity and gas usage, along with basic information about their home, to determine how their consumption compares to that of similar buildings as predicted by our model. Merely allowing users to contextualize their consumption in this way, relating it to the consumption in similar buildings, can itself produce behavior changes to significantly reduce consumption.

Plants can have positive effects on each other in numerous ways, including protection from harsh environmental conditions. This phenomenon, known as facilitation, occurs in water-stressed environments when shade from larger shrubs protects smaller annuals from harsh sun, enabling them to exist on scarce water. The topic of this paper is a model of this phenomenon that allows search algorithms to find residential landscape designs that incorporate facilitation to conserve water. This model is based in botany; it captures the growth requirements of real plant species in a fitness function, but also includes a penalty term in that function that encourages facilitative interactions with other plants on the landscape. To evaluate the effectiveness of this approach, two search strategies--simulated annealing and agent-based search--were applied to models of different collections of simulated plant types and landscapes with different light distributions. These two search strategies produced landscape designs with different spatial distributions of the larger plants. All designs exhibited facilitation and lower water use than designs where facilitation was not included.

Looking ahead to the time when autonomous cars will be common, Dresner and Stone proposed a multiagent systems-based intersection control protocol called Autonomous Intersection Management (AIM). They showed that by leveraging the capacities of autonomous vehicles it is possible to dramatically reduce the time wasted in traffic, and therefore also fuel consumption and air pollution. The proposed protocol, however, handles reservation requests one at a time and does not prioritize reservations according to their relative priorities and waiting times, causing potentially large inequalities in granting reservations. For example, at an intersection between a main street and an alley, vehicles from the alley can take an excessively long time to get reservations to enter the intersection, causing a waste of time and fuel. The same is true in a network of intersections, in which gridlock may occur and cause traffic congestion. In this paper, we introduce the batch processing of reservations in AIM to enforce liveness properties in intersections and analyze the conditions under which no vehicle will get stuck in traffic. Our experimental results show that our prioritizing schemes outperform previous intersection control protocols in unbalanced traffic.

The Green Driver app is a dynamic routing application for GPS-enabled smartphones. Green Driver combines client GPS data with real-time traffic light information provided by cities to determine optimal routes in response to driver route requests. Routes are optimized with respect to travel time, with the intention of saving the driver both time and fuel, and rerouting can occur if warranted. During a routing session, client phones communicate with a centralized server that both collects GPS data and processes route requests. All relevant data are anonymized and saved to databases for analysis; statistics are calculated from the aggregate data and fed back to the routing engine to improve future routing. Analyses can also be performed to discern driver trends: where do drivers tend to go, how long do they stay, when and where does traffic congestion occur, and so on. The system uses a number of techniques from the field of artificial intelligence. We apply a variant of A* search for solving the stochastic shortest path problem in order to find optimal driving routes through a network of roads given light-status information. We also use dynamic programming and hidden Markov models to determine the progress of a driver through a network of roads from GPS data and light-status data. The Green Driver system is currently deployed for testing in Eugene, Oregon, and is scheduled for large-scale deployment in Portland, Oregon, in Spring 2011.