Complex adaptive systems (CAS) promise to be useful in modeling and understanding real-world phenomena, but remain difficult to validate and verify. The authors present an adaptive, tool-chain-based approach to continuous validation and verification that allows the subject matter experts (SMEs) and modelers to interact in a useful manner. A CAS simulation of the ICU at the Mayo Clinic is used as a working example to illustrate the method and its benefits.

International networks, although highly efficient, may produce surprising threshold effects that shift costs to geographically distant locations. International utility, transportation, and information networks facilitate the efficient flow of information, energy, goods and people. These networks exhibit a scale-free network structure with a few large “hubs”. Yet their efficiency belies their lack of robustness. Because such networks transcend national boundaries, furthermore, disruptions to the network in one geographic region may have profound economic and national security costs for countries in another region. To illustrate how complex networks may transmit costs among countries, this paper builds an agent-based model (ABM) of the international air transportation system. The ABM employs a genetic algorithm to identify “small” disruptions that produce cascading network failures. The study makes two contributions. First, it demonstrates how some complex networks evolve into network structures that trade off robustness for efficiency. Second, it illustrates how researchers can combine agent-based modeling, evolutionary computation, and network analysis to simulate differing failure modes for global networks. This convergence of simulation methodologies characterizes the emerging field of computational social science.

Simulation techniques have long sustained research in various domains of physical, biological, and social sciences. Currently, humanists are exploring the usefulness of simulations for addressing various research questions. The nature and challenges of this enterprise are presented here in respect to collaborative work, the relation of humanities to the sciences, the transformative nature of digital methods of research within the humanities. This article describes a coordinated attempt to pursue these issues via a Summer Institute funded by the National Endowment for the Humanities, and briefly notes the projects of three of the Institute’s participants. Their work is described in detail elsewhere within this volume.

We present a graph-theoretic model of discourse based on the Questions Under Discussion (QUD) framework. Questions and assertions are treated as edges connecting discourse states in a rooted graph, modeling the introduction and resolution of various QUDs as paths through this graph. The amount of common ground presupposed by interlocutors at any given point in a discourse corresponds to graphical depth. We introduce a new task-oriented dialogue corpus and show that experts, presuming a richer common ground, initiate discourse at a deeper level than novices. The QUD-graph model thus enables us to quantify the experthood of a speaker relative to a fixed domain and to characterize the ways in which rich common ground facilitates more efficient communication.

I ask why humans are smarter than other primates, and I hypothesize that an important part of the answer lies in what I call the Strong Story Hypothesis, which holds that story telling and understanding have a central role in human intelligence. Next, I introduce another hypothesis, the Driven Perception Hypothesis, which holds that we derive much of our commonsense, including the commonsense required in story understanding, by deploying our perceptual apparatus on real and imagined events. Then, after discussing methodology, I describe the representations and methods embodied in the Genesis system, a story-understanding system that analyzes stories ranging from precis of Shakespeare's plots to descriptions of conflicts in cyberspace. The Genesis system works with short story summaries, provided in English, together with low-level commonsense rules and higher-level reflection patterns, likewise expressed in English. Using only a small collection of commonsense rules and reflection patterns, Genesis demonstrates several story-understanding capabilities, such as determining that both Macbeth and the 2007 Russia-Estonia Cyberwar involve revenge, even though neither the word revenge nor any of its synonyms are mentioned. Finally, I describe Rao's Visio-Spatial Reasoning System, a system that recognizes activities such as approaching, jumping, and giving, and answers commonsense questions posed by Genesis.

Video games are complex simulation environments with many real-world properties that need to be addressed in order to build robust intelligence. In particular, real-time strategy games provide a multi-scale challenge which requires both deliberative and reactive reasoning processes. Experts approach this task by studying a corpus of games, building models for anticipating opponent actions, and practicing within the game environment. We motivate the need for integrating heterogeneous approaches by enumerating a range of competencies involved in gameplay and discuss how they are being implemented in EISBot, a reactive planning agent that we have applied to the task of playing real-time strategy games at the same granularity as humans.

Inference techniques play a central role in many cognitive systems. They transform low-level observations of the environment into high-level, actionable knowledge which then gets used by mechanisms that drive action, problem-solving, and learning. This paper presents an initial effort at combining results from AI and psychology into a pragmatic and scalable computational reasoning system. Our approach combines a numeric notion of plausibility with first-order logic to produce an incremental inference engine that is guided by heuristics derived from the psychological literature. We illustrate core ideas with detailed examples and discuss the advantages of the approach with respect to cognitive systems.

This paper proposes a novel agenda for cognitive systems research focused on the "social agency" problem, which concerns acting to produce mental states in other agents in addition to physical states of the world. The capacity for social agency will enable agents to perform a wide array of tasks in close association with people and is a valuable first step towards broader social cognition. We argue that existing cognitive systems have not addressed social agency because they lack a number of the required mechanisms. We describe an initial approach set in a toy scenario based on capabilities native to the ICARUS cognitive architecture. We utilize an analysis of this approach to highlight the open issues required for social agency and to encourage other researchers to address this important problem.

The Betty’s Brain computer-based learning system provides an open-ended and choice-rich environment for science learning. Using the learning-by-teaching paradigm paired with feedback and support provided by two pedagogical agents, the system also promotes the development of self-regulated learning strategies to support preparation for future learning. We apply metacognitive learning theories and experiential analysis to interpret the results from previous classroom studies. We propose an integrated cognitive and metacognitive model for effective, self-regulated student learning in the Betty’s Brain environment, and then apply this model to interpret and analyze common suboptimal learning strategies students apply during their learning. This comparison is used to derive feedback for helping learners overcome these difficulties and adopt more effective strategies for regulating their learning. Preliminary results demonstrate that students who were responsive to the feedback had better learning performance.

Cognitive systems with human-level intelligence must dis­play a wide range of abilities, including reasoning about the beliefs of others, hypothetical and future situations, quanti­fiers, probabilities, and counterfactuals. While each of these deals in some way with reasoning about alternative states of reality, no single knowledge representation framework deals with them in a unified and scalable manner. As a conse­quence it is difficult to build cognitive systems for domains that require each of these abilities to be used together. To enable this integration we propose a representational framework based on synchronizing beliefs between worlds. Using this framework, each of these tasks can be reformu­lated into a reasoning problem involving worlds. This demonstrates that the notions of worlds and inheritance can bring significant parsimony and broad new abilities to knowledge representation.