In recent years there ha-- been significant progress in algorithms and methods for inducing Bayesian networks from data. However, in complex data analysis problems, we need to go beyond being satisfied with inducing networks with high scores. We need to provide confidence measures on features of these networks: Is the existence of an edge between two nodes warranted? Is the Markov blanket of a given node robust? Can we say something about the ordering of the variables? We should be able to address these questions, even when the amount of data is not enough to induce a high scoring network. In this paper we propose Efron's Bootstrap a-- a computationally efficient approach for answering these questions. In addition, we propose to use these confidence measures to induce better structures from the data, and to detect the presence of latent variables.

This paper describes a Bayesian method for combining an arbitrary mixture of observational and experimental data in order to learn causal Bayesian networks. Observational data are passively observed. Experimental data, such as that produced by randomized controlled trials, result from the experimenter manipulating one or more variables (typically randomly) and observing the states of other variables. The paper presents a Bayesian method for learning the causal structure and parameters of the underlying causal process that is generating the data, given that (1) the data contains a mixture of observational and experimental case records, and (2) the causal process is modeled as a causal Bayesian network. This learning method was applied using as input various mixtures of experimental and observational data that were generated from the ALARM causal Bayesian network. In these experiments, the absolute and relative quantities of experimental and observational data were varied systematically. For each of these training datasets, the learning method was applied to predict the causal structure and to estimate the causal parameters that exist among randomly selected pairs of nodes in ALARM that are not confounded. The paper reports how these structure predictions and parameter estimates compare with the true causal structures and parameters as given by the ALARM network.

Dynamic Bayesian networks provide a compact and natural representation for complex dynamic systems. However, in many cases, there is no expert available from whom a model can be elicited. Learning provides an alternative approach for constructing models of dynamic systems. In this paper, we address some of the crucial computational aspects of learning the structure of dynamic systems, particularly those where some relevant variables are partially observed or even entirely unknown. Our approach is based on the Structural Expectation Maximization (SEM) algorithm. The main computational cost of the SEM algorithm is the gathering of expected sufficient statistics. We propose a novel approximation scheme that allows these sufficient statistics to be computed efficiently. We also investigate the fundamental problem of discovering the existence of hidden variables without exhaustive and expensive search. Our approach is based on the observation that, in dynamic systems, ignoring a hidden variable typically results in a violation of the Markov property. Thus, our algorithm searches for such violations in the data, and introduces hidden variables to explain them. We provide empirical results showing that the algorithm is able to learn the dynamics of complex systems in a computationally tractable way.

Our hypothesis is that by equipping certain agents in a multi-agent system controlling an intelligent building with automated decision support, two important factors will be increased. The first is energy saving in the building. The second is customer value---how the people in the building experience the effects of the actions of the agents. We give evidence for the truth of this hypothesis through experimental findings related to tools for artificial decision making. A number of assumptions related to agent control, through monitoring and delegation of tasks to other kinds of agents, of rooms at a test site are relaxed. Each assumption controls at least one uncertainty that complicates considerably the procedures for selecting actions part of each such agent. We show that in realistic decision situations, room-controlling agents can make bounded rational decisions even under dynamic real-time constraints. This result can be, and has been, generalized to other domains with even harsher time constraints.

Diagnosis and prediction in some domains, like medical and industrial diagnosis, require a representation that combines uncertainty management and temporal reasoning. Based on the fact that in many cases there are few state changes in the temporal range of interest, we propose a novel representation called Temporal Nodes Bayesian Networks (TNBN). In a TNBN each node represents an event or state change of a variable, and an arc corresponds to a causal-temporal relationship. The temporal intervals can differ in number and size for each temporal node, so this allows multiple granularity. Our approach is contrasted with a dynamic Bayesian network for a simple medical example. An empirical evaluation is presented for a more complex problem, a subsystem of a fossil power plant, in which this approach is used for fault diagnosis and prediction with good results.

Efficient online learning with pairwise loss functions is a crucial component in building large-scale learning system that maximizes the area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve. In this paper we investigate the generalization performance of online learning algorithms with pairwise loss functions. We show that the existing proof techniques for generalization bounds of online algorithms with a univariate loss can not be directly applied to pairwise losses. In this paper, we derive the first result providing data-dependent bounds for the average risk of the sequence of hypotheses generated by an arbitrary online learner in terms of an easily computable statistic, and show how to extract a low risk hypothesis from the sequence. We demonstrate the generality of our results by applying it to two important problems in machine learning. First, we analyze two online algorithms for bipartite ranking; one being a natural extension of the perceptron algorithm and the other using online convex optimization. Secondly, we provide an analysis for the risk bound for an online algorithm for supervised metric learning.

We introduce the Self-Adaptive Goal Generation - Robust Intelligent Adaptive Curiosity (SAGG-RIAC) architecture as an intrinsi- cally motivated goal exploration mechanism which allows active learning of inverse models in high-dimensional redundant robots. This allows a robot to efficiently and actively learn distributions of parameterized motor skills/policies that solve a corresponding distribution of parameterized tasks/goals. The architecture makes the robot sample actively novel parameterized tasks in the task space, based on a measure of competence progress, each of which triggers low-level goal-directed learning of the motor policy pa- rameters that allow to solve it. For both learning and generalization, the system leverages regression techniques which allow to infer the motor policy parameters corresponding to a given novel parameterized task, and based on the previously learnt correspondences between policy and task parameters. We present experiments with high-dimensional continuous sensorimotor spaces in three different robotic setups: 1) learning the inverse kinematics in a highly-redundant robotic arm, 2) learning omnidirectional locomotion with motor primitives in a quadruped robot, 3) an arm learning to control a fishing rod with a flexible wire. We show that 1) exploration in the task space can be a lot faster than exploration in the actuator space for learning inverse models in redundant robots; 2) selecting goals maximizing competence progress creates developmental trajectories driving the robot to progressively focus on tasks of increasing complexity and is statistically significantly more efficient than selecting tasks randomly, as well as more efficient than different standard active motor babbling methods; 3) this architecture allows the robot to actively discover which parts of its task space it can learn to reach and which part it cannot.

Stock markets play a fundamental role in the countries' economies, since they allow companies to raise funds for their investments in technology, expansion or infrastructure by selling stocks to the public. At the same time, stocks are, for the stockholders, important assets that can help to maintain or increase the investor's wealth for future use, like retirement, education, etc. On the other hand, stock prices are volatile and depend on several factors like companies' performances, economic activity, etc. Hence, investors and funds managers usually must constantly monitor the behavior of stock prices, in order to take correct trading decisions and to avoid excessive exposition to risky stocks. Data mining techniques have been widely proposed for stock market analysis in order to identify some patterns in price time series.

This paper presents our experience regarding the creation of 3D semantic facility model out of unorganized 3D point clouds. Thus, a knowledge-based detection approach of objects using the OWL ontology language is presented. This knowledge is used to define SWRL detection rules. In addition, the combination of 3D processing built-ins and topological Built-Ins in SWRL rules aims at combining geometrical analysis of 3D point clouds and specialist's knowledge. This combination allows more flexible and intelligent detection and the annotation of objects contained in 3D point clouds. The created WiDOP prototype takes a set of 3D point clouds as input, and produces an indexed scene of colored objects visualized within VRML language as output. The context of the study is the detection of railway objects materialized within the Deutsche Bahn scene such as signals, technical cupboards, electric poles, etc. Therefore, the resulting enriched and populated domain ontology, that contains the annotations of objects in the point clouds, is used to feed a GIS system.

This paper presents a knowledge-based detection of objects approach using the OWL ontology language, the Semantic Web Rule Language, and 3D processing built-ins aiming at combining geometrical analysis of 3D point clouds and specialist's knowledge. Here, we share our experience regarding the creation of 3D semantic facility model out of unorganized 3D point clouds. Thus, a knowledge-based detection approach of objects using the OWL ontology language is presented. This knowledge is used to define SWRL detection rules. In addition, the combination of 3D processing built-ins and topological Built-Ins in SWRL rules allows a more flexible and intelligent detection, and the annotation of objects contained in 3D point clouds. The created WiDOP prototype takes a set of 3D point clouds as input, and produces as output a populated ontology corresponding to an indexed scene visualized within VRML language. The context of the study is the detection of railway objects materialized within the Deutsche Bahn scene such as signals, technical cupboards, electric poles, etc. Thus, the resulting enriched and populated ontology, that contains the annotations of objects in the point clouds, is used to feed a GIS system or an IFC file for architecture purposes.