There is an obvious need for improving the performance and accuracy of a Bayesian network as new data is observed. Because of errors in model construction and changes in the dynamics of the domains, we cannot afford to ignore the information in new data. While sequential update of parameters for a fixed structure can be accomplished using standard techniques, sequential update of network structure is still an open problem. In this paper, we investigate sequential update of Bayesian networks were both parameters and structure are expected to change. We introduce a new approach that allows for the flexible manipulation of the tradeoff between the quality of the learned networks and the amount of information that is maintained about past observations. We formally describe our approach including the necessary modifications to the scoring functions for learning Bayesian networks, evaluate its effectiveness through and empirical study, and extend it to the case of missing data.

As probabilistic systems gain popularity and are coming into wider use, the need for a mechanism that explains the system's findings and recommendations becomes more critical. The system will also need a mechanism for ordering competing explanations. We examine two representative approaches to explanation in the literature - one due to G\"ardenfors and one due to Pearl - and show that both suffer from significant problems. We propose an approach to defining a notion of "better explanation" that combines some of the features of both together with more recent work by Pearl and others on causality.

Performance prediction or forecasting sporting outcomes involves a great deal of insight into the particular area one is dealing with, and a considerable amount of intuition about the factors that bear on such outcomes and performances. The mathematical Theory of Evidence offers representation formalisms which grant experts a high degree of freedom when expressing their subjective beliefs in the context of decision-making situations like performance prediction. Furthermore, this reasoning framework incorporates a powerful mechanism to systematically pool the decisions made by individual subject matter experts. The idea behind such a combination of knowledge is to improve the competence (quality) of the overall decision-making process. This paper reports on a performance prediction experiment carried out during the European Football Championship in 1996. Relying on the knowledge of four predictors, Evidence Theory was used to forecast the final scores of all 31 matches. The results of this empirical study are very encouraging.

Many applications concern sparse signals, for example, detecting anomalies from the differences between consecutive images taken by surveillance cameras. This paper focuses on the problem of recovering a K-sparse signal x in N dimensions. In the mainstream framework of compressed sensing (CS), the vector x is recovered from M non-adaptive linear measurements y = xS, where S (of size N x M) is typically a Gaussian (or Gaussian-like) design matrix, through some optimization procedure such as linear programming (LP). In our proposed method, the design matrix S is generated from an $\alpha$-stable distribution with $\alpha\approx 0$. Our decoding algorithm mainly requires one linear scan of the coordinates, followed by a few iterations on a small number of coordinates which are "undetermined" in the previous iteration. Comparisons with two strong baselines, linear programming (LP) and orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP), demonstrate that our algorithm can be significantly faster in decoding speed and more accurate in recovery quality, for the task of exact spare recovery. Our procedure is robust against measurement noise. Even when there are no sufficient measurements, our algorithm can still reliably recover a significant portion of the nonzero coordinates. To provide the intuition for understanding our method, we also analyze the procedure by assuming an idealistic setting. Interestingly, when K=2, the "idealized" algorithm achieves exact recovery with merely 3 measurements, regardless of N. For general K, the required sample size of the "idealized" algorithm is about 5K.

Visual rendering of graphs is a key task in the mapping of complex network data. Although most graph drawing algorithms emphasize aesthetic appeal, certain applications such as travel-time maps place more importance on visualization of structural network properties. The present paper advocates a graph embedding approach with centrality considerations to comply with node hierarchy. The problem is formulated as one of constrained multi-dimensional scaling (MDS), and it is solved via block coordinate descent iterations with successive approximations and guaranteed convergence to a KKT point. In addition, a regularization term enforcing graph smoothness is incorporated with the goal of reducing edge crossings. Experimental results demonstrate that the algorithm converges, and can be used to efficiently embed large graphs on the order of thousands of nodes.

We present a model for aggregation of product review snippets by joint aspect identification and sentiment analysis. Our model simultaneously identifies an underlying set of ratable aspects presented in the reviews of a product (e.g., sushi and miso for a Japanese restaurant) and determines the corresponding sentiment of each aspect. This approach directly enables discovery of highly-rated or inconsistent aspects of a product. Our generative model admits an efficient variational mean-field inference algorithm. It is also easily extensible, and we describe several modifications and their effects on model structure and inference. We test our model on two tasks, joint aspect identification and sentiment analysis on a set of Yelp reviews and aspect identification alone on a set of medical summaries. We evaluate the performance of the model on aspect identification, sentiment analysis, and per-word labeling accuracy. We demonstrate that our model outperforms applicable baselines by a considerable margin, yielding up to 32% relative error reduction on aspect identification and up to 20% relative error reduction on sentiment analysis.

A novel regularizer of the PARAFAC decomposition factors capturing the tensor's rank is proposed in this paper, as the key enabler for completion of three-way data arrays with missing entries. Set in a Bayesian framework, the tensor completion method incorporates prior information to enhance its smoothing and prediction capabilities. This probabilistic approach can naturally accommodate general models for the data distribution, lending itself to various fitting criteria that yield optimum estimates in the maximum-a-posteriori sense. In particular, two algorithms are devised for Gaussian- and Poisson-distributed data, that minimize the rank-regularized least-squares error and Kullback-Leibler divergence, respectively. The proposed technique is able to recover the "ground-truth'' tensor rank when tested on synthetic data, and to complete brain imaging and yeast gene expression datasets with 50% and 15% of missing entries respectively, resulting in recovery errors at -10dB and -15dB.

Reshef et al. recently proposed a new statistical measure, the "maximal information coefficient" (MIC), for quantifying arbitrary dependencies between pairs of stochastic quantities. MIC is based on mutual information, a fundamental quantity in information theory that is widely understood to serve this need. MIC, however, is not an estimate of mutual information. Indeed, it was claimed that MIC possesses a desirable mathematical property called "equitability" that mutual information lacks. This was not proven; instead it was argued solely through the analysis of simulated data. Here we show that this claim, in fact, is incorrect. First we offer mathematical proof that no (non-trivial) dependence measure satisfies the definition of equitability proposed by Reshef et al.. We then propose a self-consistent and more general definition of equitability that follows naturally from the Data Processing Inequality. Mutual information satisfies this new definition of equitability while MIC does not. Finally, we show that the simulation evidence offered by Reshef et al. was artifactual. We conclude that estimating mutual information is not only practical for many real-world applications, but also provides a natural solution to the problem of quantifying associations in large data sets.

This paper describes a process for constructing situation-specific belief networks from a knowledge base of network fragments. A situation-specific network is a minimal query complete network constructed from a knowledge base in response to a query for the probability distribution on a set of target variables given evidence and context variables. We present definitions of query completeness and situation-specific networks. We describe conditions on the knowledge base that guarantee query completeness. The relationship of our work to earlier work on KBMC is also discussed.

Boltzmann machines are undirected graphical models with two-state stochastic variables, in which the logarithms of the clique potentials are quadratic functions of the node states. They have been widely studied in the neural computing literature, although their practical applicability has been limited by the difficulty of finding an effective learning algorithm. One well-established approach, known as mean field theory, represents the stochastic distribution using a factorized approximation. However, the corresponding learning algorithm often fails to find a good solution. We conjecture that this is due to the implicit uni-modality of the mean field approximation which is therefore unable to capture multi-modality in the true distribution. In this paper we use variational methods to approximate the stochastic distribution using multi-modal mixtures of factorized distributions. We present results for both inference and learning to demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach.