Industry
Network Detection Theory and Performance
Smith, Steven T., Senne, Kenneth D., Philips, Scott, Kao, Edward K., Bernstein, Garrett
Network detection is an important capability in many areas of applied research in which data can be represented as a graph of entities and relationships. Oftentimes the object of interest is a relatively small subgraph in an enormous, potentially uninteresting background. This aspect characterizes network detection as a "big data" problem. Graph partitioning and network discovery have been major research areas over the last ten years, driven by interest in internet search, cyber security, social networks, and criminal or terrorist activities. The specific problem of network discovery is addressed as a special case of graph partitioning in which membership in a small subgraph of interest must be determined. Algebraic graph theory is used as the basis to analyze and compare different network detection methods. A new Bayesian network detection framework is introduced that partitions the graph based on prior information and direct observations. The new approach, called space-time threat propagation, is proved to maximize the probability of detection and is therefore optimum in the Neyman-Pearson sense. This optimality criterion is compared to spectral community detection approaches which divide the global graph into subsets or communities with optimal connectivity properties. We also explore a new generative stochastic model for covert networks and analyze using receiver operating characteristics the detection performance of both classes of optimal detection techniques.
Bayesian Compressed Regression
Guhaniyogi, Rajarshi, Dunson, David B.
As an alternative to variable selection or shrinkage in high dimensional regression, we propose to randomly compress the predictors prior to analysis. This dramatically reduces storage and computational bottlenecks, performing well when the predictors can be projected to a low dimensional linear subspace with minimal loss of information about the response. As opposed to existing Bayesian dimensionality reduction approaches, the exact posterior distribution conditional on the compressed data is available analytically, speeding up computation by many orders of magnitude while also bypassing robustness issues due to convergence and mixing problems with MCMC. Model averaging is used to reduce sensitivity to the random projection matrix, while accommodating uncertainty in the subspace dimension. Strong theoretical support is provided for the approach by showing near parametric convergence rates for the predictive density in the large p small n asymptotic paradigm. Practical performance relative to competitors is illustrated in simulations and real data applications.
A Hybrid LP-RPG Heuristic for Modelling Numeric Resource Flows in Planning
Coles, A., Coles, A., Fox, M., Long, D.
Although the use of metric fluents is fundamental to many practical planning problems, the study of heuristics to support fully automated planners working with these fluents remains relatively unexplored. The most widely used heuristic is the relaxation of metric fluents into interval-valued variables --- an idea first proposed a decade ago. Other heuristics depend on domain encodings that supply additional information about fluents, such as capacity constraints or other resource-related annotations. A particular challenge to these approaches is in handling interactions between metric fluents that represent exchange, such as the transformation of quantities of raw materials into quantities of processed goods, or trading of money for materials. The usual relaxation of metric fluents is often very poor in these situations, since it does not recognise that resources, once spent, are no longer available to be spent again. We present a heuristic for numeric planning problems building on the propositional relaxed planning graph, but using a mathematical program for numeric reasoning. We define a class of producer--consumer planning problems and demonstrate how the numeric constraints in these can be modelled in a mixed integer program (MIP). This MIP is then combined with a metric Relaxed Planning Graph (RPG) heuristic to produce an integrated hybrid heuristic. The MIP tracks resource use more accurately than the usual relaxation, but relaxes the ordering of actions, while the RPG captures the causal propositional aspects of the problem. We discuss how these two components interact to produce a single unified heuristic and go on to explore how further numeric features of planning problems can be integrated into the MIP. We show that encoding a limited subset of the propositional problem to augment the MIP can yield more accurate guidance, partly by exploiting structure such as propositional landmarks and propositional resources. Our results show that the use of this heuristic enhances scalability on problems where numeric resource interaction is key in finding a solution.
Lifelong Learning of Structure in the Space of Policies
Hawasly, Majd (University of Edinburgh) | Ramamoorthy, Subramanian (University of Edinburgh)
We address the problem faced by an autonomous agent that must achieve quick responses to a family of qualitatively-related tasks, such as a robot interacting with different types of human participants. We work in the setting where the tasks share a state-action space and have the same qualitative objective but differ in the dynamics and reward process. We adopt a transfer approach where the agent attempts to exploit common structure in learnt policies to accelerate learning in a new one. Our technique consists of a few key steps. First, we use a probabilistic model to describe the regions in state space which successful trajectories seem to prefer. Then, we extract policy fragments from previously-learnt policies for these regions as candidates for reuse. These fragments may be treated as options with corresponding domains and termination conditions extracted by unsupervised learning. Then, the set of reusable policies is used when learning novel tasks, and the process repeats. The utility of this method is demonstrated through experiments in the simulated soccer domain, where the variability comes from the different possible behaviours of opponent teams, and the agent needs to perform well against novel opponents.
Scalable Lifelong Learning with Active Task Selection
Ruvolo, Paul (Bryn Mawr College) | Eaton, Eric (Bryn Mawr College)
The recently developed Efficient Lifelong Learning Algorithm (ELLA) acquires knowledge incrementally over a sequence of tasks, learning a repository of latent model components that are sparsely shared between models. ELLA shows strong performance in comparison to other multi-task learning algorithms, achieving nearly identical performance to batch multi-task learning methods while learning tasks sequentially in three orders of magnitude (over 1,000x) less time. In this paper, we evaluate several curriculum selection methods that allow ELLA to actively select the next task for learning in order to maximize performance on future learning tasks. Through experiments with three real and one synthetic data set, we demonstrate that active curriculum selection allows an agent to learn up to 50% more efficiently than when the agent has no control over the task order.
Towards Pareto Descent Directions in Sampling Experts for Multiple Tasks in an On-Line Learning Paradigm
Ghosh, Shaona (University of Southampton,UK) | Lovell, Chris (University of Southampton) | Gunn, Steve R. (University of Southampton)
In many real-life design problems, there is a requirement to simultaneously balance multiple tasks or objectives in the system that are conflicting in nature, where minimizing one objective causes another to increase in value, thereby resulting in trade-offs between the objectives. For example, in embedded multi-core mobile devices and very large scale data centers, there is a continuous problem of simultaneously balancing interfering goals of maximal power savings and minimal performance delay with varying trade-off values for different application workloads executing on them. Typically, the optimal trade-offs for the executing workloads, lie on a difficult to determine optimal Pareto front. The nature of the problem requires learning over the lifetime of the mobile device or server with continuous evaluation and prediction of the trade-off settings on the system that balances the interfering objectives optimally. Towards this, we propose an on-line learning method, where the weights of experts for addressing the objectives are updated based on a convex combination of their relative performance in addressing all objectives simultaneously. An additional importance vector that assigns relative importance to each objective at every round is used, and is sampled from a convex cone pointed at the origin Our preliminary results show that the convex combination of the importance vector and the gradient of the potential functions of the learner's regret with respect to each objective ensure that in the next round, the drift (instantaneous regret vector), is the Pareto descent direction that enables better convergence to the optimal Pareto front.
Enhancing Layers of Care House with Assistive Technology for Distributed Caregiving
Sugihara, Taro (Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology) | Fujinami, Tsutomu (Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology) | Jones, Rachel (Instrata Limited) | Kadowaki, Kozo (Meiji University) | Ando, Masaya (Chiba Institute of Technology)
Care homes for persons with dementia are being designed so that caregivers can easily observe and therefore respond to the needs of people with dementia. However, the layout of care homes can then become overly restrictive for its residents, for example, by not supporting intermediate spaces where people can come across one another and start a conversation. We report a case study where a video monitoring system was deployed into a purpose-built care home to help caregivers to observe activities in the blind spots pertaining to the layout. We had carried out a study prior to and subsequent to the deployment of video monitoring in order to understand its impact. We found that both the caregivers and the residents benefitted from video monitoring, provided it is deployed sensitively. Furthermore, the deployment of video monitoring enables the design of more beneficial physical layouts. The deployment of video monitoring goes along with the physical layout of care homes.
Game-Initiated Learning: A Case Study For Disaster Education Research In Taiwan
Lin, Sarah Chen (National Taiwan University) | Tsai, Meng-Han (National Taiwan University ) | Chang, Yu-Lien (National Taiwan University) | Kang, Shih-Chung (National Taiwan University)
Game-based learning has been proven an effective method to engage students in the class. However, it is very challenging to balance playability and learnability when only developing digital games. Some "playable" games may not carry sufficient knowledge; some "learnable" games may reduce the students' interest and curiosity. In this ongoing research, we proposed an innovative learning method, "game-initiated learning." This method consists of three main steps: game, discussion and self-directedlearning. In this model, students can experience real-world problems from the game, discuss problems they found in the game, and finally, the instructors can deliver related knowledge that is useful to solving the problems previously discussed. To validate the proposed method, we selected a topic of disaster education in Taiwan and experimentally developed a set of course materials including a digital game, animation videos and an e-book. We conducted a review meeting, inviting experts from hydraulic engineering, game development, and disaster mediation as well as schoolteachers and students. The reviewers were asked to play the games and review all course materials. From the feedbacks of the reviewers, we found game-initiated learning an educational method with great potential in providing tacit and explicit knowledge about disaster management.
Fuzzy Expert System for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) Management Using Dual Inference Mechanism
Nnamoko, Nonso Alex (JohnMoores University) | Arshad, Farath (JohnMoores University) | England, David (JohnMoores University) | Vora, Jiten (The Royal Liverpool and Broadgreen University Hospitals)
Fuzzy logic is an important technique for modeling uncertainty in expert systems (i.e., in cases where inferencing of conclusion from given evidence is difficult to ascertain). This paper proposes a fuzzy expert system framework that combines case-based and rule-based reasoning effectively to produce a usable tool for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) management. The major targets are on combined therapies (i.e., lifestyle and pharmacologic), and the recognition of management data dynamics (trends) during reasoning. The Knowledge base (KB) is constructed using fuzzified input values which are subsequently de-fuzziffied after reasoning, to produce crisp outputs to patients in the form of low-risk advice. The extended framework features a combined reasoning approach for simplified output in the form of decision support for clinicians. With seven operational input variables and two additional pre-set variables for testing, the results of the proposed work will be compared with other methods using similarity to expert’s decision as metrics.
Symbolic Play and Analogy: a Way to Foster Children’s Creativity
Sefer, Jasmina (Institute for Educational Research, Belgrade)
The author discusses the relationship between symbolic play, abstract thinking, and divergent and associative thinking based on analogies, and finally connects symbolic play with the creative process. Play and the creative act are seen as similar by definition, since they are characterized as divergent, regulative, expressive and autotelic processes. Symbolic play is not only a product of the animistic and concrete logical way of thinking in childhood but also represents a mode of abstract thinking at the fictional symbolic level, which provides different options important for creativity development. Symbolic play is based on analogies with reality, and in this way reality is transformed in the imagination to be comprehended by the child. This transformation, which takes place in the nest of analogy at the symbolic level, is a key for creative production. Analogies in symbolic play are created through the divergent associative thinking process, also basic for any creative activity. The author has already used play as a tool to enhance creative behavior among young students in primary schools, and currently one project is being implemented in Serbia by the Institute for Educational Research with the intention of promoting initiative, cooperation and creativity by using play among other learning methods.