EXAMINATION OF SHAFER'S CANONICAL EXAMPLES Kathryn Blackmond Laskey Decision Science Consortium, Inc. 7700 Leesburg Pike, Suite 421 Falls Church, VA 22043 1 Abstract In the canonical examples underlying Shafer-Dempster theory, beliefs over the hypotheses of interest are derived from a probability model for a set of auxiliary hypotheses. Beliefs are derived via a compatibility relation connecting the auxiliary hypotheses to subsets of the primary hypotheses. A belief function differs from a Bayesian probability model in that one does not condition on those parts of the evidence for which no probabilities are specified. The significance of this difference in conditioning assumptions is illustrated with two examples giving rise to identical belief functions but different Bayesian probability distributions. Introduction The artificial intelligence community is in the midst of a lively debate over the representation and manipulation of uncertainty.

Modifiable combining functions are a synthesis of two general approaches to combining evidence. Because they facilitate the acquisition, representation, explanation, and modification of expert knowledge about combinations of evidence, they are presented as a device for knowledge engineers, not as a normative theory of evidence combination. The basic idea of modifiable combining functions is to acquire degrees of belief for a subset of all possible combinations of evidence, then infer degrees of belief for other combinations in the set.

Crowdsourcing systems, in which numerous tasks are electronically distributed to numerous "information piece-workers", have emerged as an effective paradigm for human-powered solving of large scale problems in domains such as image classification, data entry, optical character recognition, recommendation, and proofreading. Because these low-paid workers can be unreliable, nearly all such systems must devise schemes to increase confidence in their answers, typically by assigning each task multiple times and combining the answers in an appropriate manner, e.g. majority voting. In this paper, we consider a general model of such crowdsourcing tasks and pose the problem of minimizing the total price (i.e., number of task assignments) that must be paid to achieve a target overall reliability. We give a new algorithm for deciding which tasks to assign to which workers and for inferring correct answers from the workers' answers. We show that our algorithm, inspired by belief propagation and low-rank matrix approximation, significantly outperforms majority voting and, in fact, is optimal through comparison to an oracle that knows the reliability of every worker. Further, we compare our approach with a more general class of algorithms which can dynamically assign tasks. By adaptively deciding which questions to ask to the next arriving worker, one might hope to reduce uncertainty more efficiently. We show that, perhaps surprisingly, the minimum price necessary to achieve a target reliability scales in the same manner under both adaptive and non-adaptive scenarios. Hence, our non-adaptive approach is order-optimal under both scenarios. This strongly relies on the fact that workers are fleeting and can not be exploited. Therefore, architecturally, our results suggest that building a reliable worker-reputation system is essential to fully harnessing the potential of adaptive designs.

During the past years there has been an explosion of interest in learning methods based on sparsity regularization. In this paper, we discuss a general class of such methods, in which the regularizer can be expressed as the composition of a convex function $\omega$ with a linear function. This setting includes several methods such the group Lasso, the Fused Lasso, multi-task learning and many more. We present a general approach for solving regularization problems of this kind, under the assumption that the proximity operator of the function $\omega$ is available. Furthermore, we comment on the application of this approach to support vector machines, a technique pioneered by the groundbreaking work of Vladimir Vapnik.

We investigate a family of poisoning attacks against Support Vector Machines (SVM). Such attacks inject specially crafted training data that increases the SVM's test error. Central to the motivation for these attacks is the fact that most learning algorithms assume that their training data comes from a natural or well-behaved distribution. However, this assumption does not generally hold in security-sensitive settings. As we demonstrate, an intelligent adversary can, to some extent, predict the change of the SVM's decision function due to malicious input and use this ability to construct malicious data. The proposed attack uses a gradient ascent strategy in which the gradient is computed based on properties of the SVM's optimal solution. This method can be kernelized and enables the attack to be constructed in the input space even for non-linear kernels. We experimentally demonstrate that our gradient ascent procedure reliably identifies good local maxima of the non-convex validation error surface, which significantly increases the classifier's test error.

We propose a method called ideal regression for approximating an arbitrary system of polynomial equations by a system of a particular type. Using techniques from approximate computational algebraic geometry, we show how we can solve ideal regression directly without resorting to numerical optimization. Ideal regression is useful whenever the solution to a learning problem can be described by a system of polynomial equations. As an example, we demonstrate how to formulate Stationary Subspace Analysis (SSA), a source separation problem, in terms of ideal regression, which also yields a consistent estimator for SSA. We then compare this estimator in simulations with previous optimization-based approaches for SSA.

We study the problem of adaptive control of a high dimensional linear quadratic (LQ) system. Previous work established the asymptotic convergence to an optimal controller for various adaptive control schemes. More recently, for the average cost LQ problem, a regret bound of ${O}(\sqrt{T})$ was shown, apart form logarithmic factors. However, this bound scales exponentially with $p$, the dimension of the state space. In this work we consider the case where the matrices describing the dynamic of the LQ system are sparse and their dimensions are large. We present an adaptive control scheme that achieves a regret bound of ${O}(p \sqrt{T})$, apart from logarithmic factors. In particular, our algorithm has an average cost of $(1+\eps)$ times the optimum cost after $T = \polylog(p) O(1/\eps^2)$. This is in comparison to previous work on the dense dynamics where the algorithm requires time that scales exponentially with dimension in order to achieve regret of $\eps$ times the optimal cost. We believe that our result has prominent applications in the emerging area of computational advertising, in particular targeted online advertising and advertising in social networks.

Robust visual tracking for long video sequences is a research area that has many important applications. The main challenges include how the target image can be modeled and how this model can be updated. In this paper, we model the target using a covariance descriptor, as this descriptor is robust to problems such as pixel-pixel misalignment, pose and illumination changes, that commonly occur in visual tracking. We model the changes in the template using a generative process. We introduce a new dynamical model for the template update using a random walk on the Riemannian manifold where the covariance descriptors lie in. This is done using log-transformed space of the manifold to free the constraints imposed inherently by positive semidefinite matrices. Modeling template variations and poses kinetics together in the state space enables us to jointly quantify the uncertainties relating to the kinematic states and the template in a principled way. Finally, the sequential inference of the posterior distribution of the kinematic states and the template is done using a particle filter. Our results shows that this principled approach can be robust to changes in illumination, poses and spatial affine transformation. In the experiments, our method outperformed the current state-of-the-art algorithm - the incremental Principal Component Analysis method, particularly when a target underwent fast poses changes and also maintained a comparable performance in stable target tracking cases.

Associative classification is a recent and rewarding technique which integrates association rule mining and classification to a model for prediction and achieves maximum accuracy. Associative classifiers are especially fit to applications where maximum accuracy is desired to a model for prediction. There are many domains such as medical where the maximum accuracy of the model is desired. Heart disease is a single largest cause of death in developed countries and one of the main contributors to disease burden in developing countries. Mortality data from the registrar general of India shows that heart disease are a major cause of death in India, and in Andhra Pradesh coronary heart disease cause about 30%of deaths in rural areas. Hence there is a need to develop a decision support system for predicting heart disease of a patient. In this paper we propose efficient associative classification algorithm using genetic approach for heart disease prediction. The main motivation for using genetic algorithm in the discovery of high level prediction rules is that the discovered rules are highly comprehensible, having high predictive accuracy and of high interestingness values. Experimental Results show that most of the classifier rules help in the best prediction of heart disease which even helps doctors in their diagnosis decisions.

Understanding the mutual relationships between information flows and social activity in society today is one of the cornerstones of the social sciences. In financial economics, the key issue in this regard is understanding and quantifying how news of all possible types (geopolitical, environmental, social, financial, economic, etc.) affect trading and the pricing of firms in organized stock markets. In this article, we seek to address this issue by performing an analysis of more than 24 million news records provided by Thompson Reuters and of their relationship with trading activity for 206 major stocks in the S&P US stock index. We show that the whole landscape of news that affect stock price movements can be automatically summarized via simple regularized regressions between trading activity and news information pieces decomposed, with the help of simple topic modeling techniques, into their "thematic" features. Using these methods, we are able to estimate and quantify the impacts of news on trading. We introduce network-based visualization techniques to represent the whole landscape of news information associated with a basket of stocks. The examination of the words that are representative of the topic distributions confirms that our method is able to extract the significant pieces of information influencing the stock market. Our results show that one of the most puzzling stylized fact in financial economies, namely that at certain times trading volumes appear to be "abnormally large," can be partially explained by the flow of news. In this sense, our results prove that there is no "excess trading," when restricting to times when news are genuinely novel and provide relevant financial information.