Bayesian inference systems should be able to explain their reasoning to users, translating from numerical to natural language. Previous empirical work has investigated the correspondence between absolute probabilities and linguistic phrases. This study extends that work to the correspondence between changes in probabilities (updates) and relative probability phrases, such as "much more likely" or "a little less likely." Subjects selected such phrases to best describe numerical probability updates. We examined three hypotheses about the correspondence, and found the most descriptively accurate of these three to be that each such phrase corresponds to a fixed difference in probability (rather than fixed ratio of probabilities or of odds). The empirically derived phrase selection function uses eight phrases and achieved a 72% accuracy in correspondence with the subjects' actual usage.

Unaided human decision making appears to systematically violate consistency constraints imposed by normative theories; these biases in turn appear to justify the application of formal decision-analytic models. It is argued that both claims are wrong. In particular, we will argue that the "confirmation bias" is premised on an overly narrow view of how conflicting evidence is and ought to be handled. Effective decision aiding should focus on supporting the contral processes by means of which knowledge is extended into novel situations and in which assumptions are adopted, utilized, and revised. The Non- Monotonic Probabilist represents initial work toward such an aid.

In recent years, researchers in decision analysis and artificial intelligence (Al) have used Bayesian belief networks to build models of expert opinion. Using standard methods drawn from the theory of computational complexity, workers in the field have shown that the problem of probabilistic inference in belief networks is difficult and almost certainly intractable. K N ET, a software environment for constructing knowledge-based systems within the axiomatic framework of decision theory, contains a randomized approximation scheme for probabilistic inference. The algorithm can, in many circumstances, perform efficient approximate inference in large and richly interconnected models of medical diagnosis. Unlike previously described stochastic algorithms for probabilistic inference, the randomized approximation scheme computes a priori bounds on running time by analyzing the structure and contents of the belief network. In this article, we describe a randomized algorithm for probabilistic inference and analyze its performance mathematically. Then, we devote the major portion of the paper to a discussion of the algorithm's empirical behavior. The results indicate that the generation of good trials (that is, trials whose distribution closely matches the true distribution), rather than the computation of numerous mediocre trials, dominates the performance of stochastic simulation. Key words: probabilistic inference, belief networks, stochastic simulation, computational complexity theory, randomized algorithms.

Rather than discussing the isolated merits of a nominative theory of uncertainty, this paper focuses on a class of problems, referred to as Dynamic Classification Problem (DCP), which requires the integration of many theories, including a prescriptive theory of uncertainty. We start by analyzing the Dynamic Classification Problem and by defining its induced requirements on a supporting (plausible) reasoning system. We provide a summary of the underlying theory (based on the semantics of many-valed logics) and illustrate the constraints imposed upon it to ensure the modularity and computational performance required by the applications. We describe the technologies used for knowledge engineering (such as object-based simulator to exercise requirements, and development tools to build the Knowledge Base and functionally validate it). We emphasize the difference between development environment and run-time system, describe the rule cross-compiler, and the real-time inference engine with meta-reasoning capabilities. Finally, we illustrate how our proposed technology satisfies the pop's requirements and analyze some of the lessons reamed from its applications to situation assessment problems for Pilot's Associate and Submarine Commander Associate.

In this paper we explore representations of temporal knowledge based upon the formalism of Causal Probabilistic Networks (CPNs). Two different ?continuous-time? representations are proposed. In the first, the CPN includes variables representing ?event-occurrence times?, possibly on different time scales, and variables representing the ?state? of the system at these times. In the second, the CPN describes the influences between random variables with values in () representing dates, i.e. time-points associated with the occurrence of relevant events. However, structuring a system of inter-related dates as a network where all links commit to a single specific notion of cause and effect is in general far from trivial and leads to severe difficulties. We claim that we should recognize explicitly different kinds of relation between dates, such as ?cause?, ?inhibition?, ?competition?, etc., and propose a method whereby these relations are coherently embedded in a CPN using additional auxiliary nodes corresponding to "instrumental" variables. Also discussed, though not covered in detail, is the topic concerning how the quantitative specifications to be inserted in a temporal CPN can be learned from specific data.

After a brief introduction to causal probabilistic networks and the HUGIN approach, the problem of conflicting data is discussed. A measure of conflict is defined, and it is used in the medical diagnostic system MUNIN. Finally, it is discussed how to distinguish between conflicting data and a rare case.

A scientific reasoning system makes decisions using objective evidence in the form of independent experimental trials, propositional axioms, and constraints on the probabilities of events. As a first step towards this goal, we propose a system that derives probability intervals from objective evidence in those forms. Our reasoning system can manage uncertainty about data and rules in a rule based expert system. We expect that our system will be particularly applicable to diagnosis and analysis in domains with a wealth of experimental evidence such as medicine. We discuss limitations of this solution and propose future directions for this research. This work can be considered a generalization of Nilsson's "probabilistic logic" [Nil86] to intervals and experimental observations.

We analyzed the convergence properties of likelihood- weighting algorithms on a two-level, multiply connected, belief-network representation of the QMR knowledge base of internal medicine. Specifically, on two difficult diagnostic cases, we examined the effects of Markov blanket scoring, importance sampling, demonstrating that the Markov blanket scoring and self-importance sampling significantly improve the convergence of the simulation on our model.

This paper derives a formula for computing the conditional probability of a set of candidates, where a candidate is a set of disorders that explain a given set of positive findings. Such candidate sets are produced by a recent method for multidisorder diagnosis called symptom clustering. A symptom clustering represents a set of candidates compactly as a cartesian product of differential diagnoses. By evaluating the probability of a candidate set, then, a large set of candidates can be validated or pruned simultaneously. The probability of a candidate set is then specialized to obtain the probability of a single candidate. Unlike earlier results, the equation derived here allows the specification of positive, negative, and unknown symptoms and does not make assumptions about disorders not in the candidate.

Decision-theoretic control of search has previously used as its basic unit. of computation the generation and evaluation of a complete set of successors. Although this simplifies analysis, it results in some lost opportunities for pruning and satisficing. This paper therefore extends the analysis of the value of computation to cover individual successor evaluations. The analytic techniques used may prove useful for control of reasoning in more general settings. A formula is developed for the expected value of a node, k of whose n successors have been evaluated. This formula is used to estimate the value of expanding further successors, using a general formula for the value of a computation in game-playing developed in earlier work. We exhibit an improved version of the MGSS* algorithm, giving empirical results for the game of Othello.