Security is a critical concern around the world. Since resources for security are always limited, lots of interest have arisen in using game theory to handle security resource allocation problems. However, most of the existing work does not address adequately how a defender chooses his optimal strategy in a game with absent, inaccurate, uncertain, and even ambiguous strategy profiles' payoffs. To address this issue, we propose a general framework of security games under ambiguities based on Dempster-Shafer theory and the ambiguity aversion principle of minimax regret. Then, we reveal some properties of this framework. Also, we present two methods to reduce the influence of complete ignorance. Our investigation shows that this new framework is better in handling security resource allocation problems under ambiguities.

This paper details the development and evaluation of AstonTAC, an energy broker that successfully participated in the 2012 Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC). AstonTAC buys electrical energy from the wholesale market and sells it in the retail market. The main focus of the paper is on the broker's bidding strategy in the wholesale market. In particular, it employs Markov Decision Processes (MDP) to purchase energy at low prices in a day-ahead power wholesale market, and keeps energy supply and demand balanced. Moreover, we explain how the agent uses Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHHMM) to forecast energy demand and price. An evaluation and analysis of the 2012 Power TAC finals show that AstonTAC is the only agent that can buy energy at low price in the wholesale market and keep energy imbalance low.

Coordination in cooperative multiagent systems is an important problem in multiagent learning literature. In practical complex environments, the interactions between agents can be sparse, and each agent's interacting partners may change frequently and randomly. To this end, we investigate the multiagent coordination problems in cooperative environments under the social learning framework. We consider a large population of agents where each agent interacts with another agent randomly chosen from the population in each round. Each agent learns its policy through repeated interactions with the rest of agents via social learning. It is not clear a priori if all agents can learn a consistent optimal coordination policy in such a situation. We distinguish two types of learners: individual action learner and joint action learner. The learning performance of both learners are evaluated under a number of challenging cooperative games, and the influence of the information sharing degree on the learning performance is investigated as well.

We focus on solving two-player zero-sum extensive-form games with perfect information and simultaneous moves. In these games, both players fully observe the current state of the game where they simultaneously make a move determining the next state of the game. We solve these games by a novel algorithm that relies on two components: (1) it iteratively solves the games that correspond to a single simultaneous move using a double-oracle method, and (2) it prunes the states of the game using bounds on the sub-game values obtained by the classical Alpha-Beta search on a serialized variant of the game. We experimentally evaluate our algorithm on the Goofspiel card game, a pursuit-evasion game, and randomly generated games. The results show that our novel algorithm typically provides significant running-time improvements and reduction in the number of evaluated nodes compared to the full search algorithm.

Department of Mathematics, South Kensington Campus, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ Abstract The area under the ROC curve is widely used as a measure of performance of classification rules. However, it has recently been shown that the measure is fundamentally incoherent, in the sense that it treats the relative severities of misclassifications differently when different classifiers are used. To overcome this, [5, 6] proposed the H measure, which allows a given researcher to fix the distribution of relative severities to a classifier-independent setting on a given problem. Keywords: supervised classification, classifier performance, AUC, ROC curve, H measure 1. Introduction The aim of supervised classification is to construct a rule which will allow one to assign objects to one of M classes, on the basis of vectors of descriptive features of those objects. The rule will be constructed using a'training' set (machine learning and pattern recognition terminology) or'design' set (statistics terminology) of data which includes both descriptive vectors and true classes for a sample of objects.

We introduce a modular framework for market making. It combines cost-function based automated market makers with bandit algorithms. We obtain worst-case profits guarantee's relative to the best in hindsight within a class of natural "overround" cost functions . This combination allow us to have distribution-free guarantees on the regret of profits while preserving the bounded worst-case losses and computational tractability over combinatorial spaces of the cost function based approach. We present simulation results to better understand the practical behaviour of market makers from the framework.

We present an efficient algorithm for simultaneously training sparse generalized linear models across many related problems, which may arise from bootstrapping, cross-validation and nonparametric permutation testing. Our approach leverages the redundancies across problems to obtain significant computational improvements relative to solving the problems sequentially by a conventional algorithm. We demonstrate our fast simultaneous training of generalized linear models (FaSTGLZ) algorithm on a number of real-world datasets, and we run otherwise computationally intensive bootstrapping and permutation test analyses that are typically necessary for obtaining statistically rigorous classification results and meaningful interpretation. Code is freely available at http://liinc.bme.columbia.edu/fastglz.

The level set tree approach of Hartigan (1975) provides a probabilistically based and highly interpretable encoding of the clustering behavior of a dataset. By representing the hierarchy of data modes as a dendrogram of the level sets of a density estimator, this approach offers many advantages for exploratory analysis and clustering, especially for complex and high-dimensional data. Several R packages exist for level set tree estimation, but their practical usefulness is limited by computational inefficiency, absence of interactive graphical capabilities and, from a theoretical perspective, reliance on asymptotic approximations. To make it easier for practitioners to capture the advantages of level set trees, we have written the Python package DeBaCl for DEnsity-BAsed CLustering. In this article we illustrate how DeBaCl's level set tree estimates can be used for difficult clustering tasks and interactive graphical data analysis. The package is intended to promote the practical use of level set trees through improvements in computational efficiency and a high degree of user customization. In addition, the flexible algorithms implemented in DeBaCl enjoy finite sample accuracy, as demonstrated in recent literature on density clustering. Finally, we show the level set tree framework can be easily extended to deal with functional data. Keywords: density-based clustering, level set tree, Python, interactive graphics, functional data analysis.

Prior-weighted logistic regression has become a standard tool for calibration in speaker recognition. Logistic regression is the optimization of the expected value of the logarithmic scoring rule. We generalize this via a parametric family of proper scoring rules. Our theoretical analysis shows how different members of this family induce different relative weightings over a spectrum of applications of which the decision thresholds range from low to high. Special attention is given to the interaction between prior weighting and proper scoring rule parameters. Experiments on NIST SRE'12 suggest that for applications with low false-alarm rate requirements, scoring rules tailored to emphasize higher score thresholds may give better accuracy than logistic regression.

Penetration Testing is a methodology for assessing network security, by generating and executing possible hacking attacks. Doing so automatically allows for regular and systematic testing. A key question is how to generate the attacks. This is naturally formulated as planning under uncertainty, i.e., under incomplete knowledge about the network configuration. Previous work uses classical planning, and requires costly pre-processes reducing this uncertainty by extensive application of scanning methods. By contrast, we herein model the attack planning problem in terms of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP). This allows to reason about the knowledge available, and to intelligently employ scanning actions as part of the attack. As one would expect, this accurate solution does not scale. We devise a method that relies on POMDPs to find good attacks on individual machines, which are then composed into an attack on the network as a whole. This decomposition exploits network structure to the extent possible, making targeted approximations (only) where needed. Evaluating this method on a suitably adapted industrial test suite, we demonstrate its effectiveness in both runtime and solution quality.