Multi-step-ahead time series prediction is one of the most challenging research topics in the field of time series modeling and prediction, and is continually under research. Recently, the multiple-input several multiple-outputs (MISMO) modeling strategy has been proposed as a promising alternative for multi-step-ahead time series prediction, exhibiting advantages compared with the two currently dominating strategies, the iterated and the direct strategies. Built on the established MISMO strategy, this study proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based MISMO modeling strategy, which is capable of determining the number of sub-models in a self-adaptive mode, with varying prediction horizons. Rather than deriving crisp divides with equal-size s prediction horizons from the established MISMO, the proposed PSO-MISMO strategy, implemented with neural networks, employs a heuristic to create flexible divides with varying sizes of prediction horizons and to generate corresponding sub-models, providing considerable flexibility in model construction, which has been validated with simulated and real datasets.

Variational inference has become a widely used method to approximate posteriors in complex latent variables models. However, deriving a variational inference algorithm generally requires significant model-specific analysis, and these efforts can hinder and deter us from quickly developing and exploring a variety of models for a problem at hand. In this paper, we present a "black box" variational inference algorithm, one that can be quickly applied to many models with little additional derivation. Our method is based on a stochastic optimization of the variational objective where the noisy gradient is computed from Monte Carlo samples from the variational distribution. We develop a number of methods to reduce the variance of the gradient, always maintaining the criterion that we want to avoid difficult model-based derivations. We evaluate our method against the corresponding black box sampling based methods. We find that our method reaches better predictive likelihoods much faster than sampling methods. Finally, we demonstrate that Black Box Variational Inference lets us easily explore a wide space of models by quickly constructing and evaluating several models of longitudinal healthcare data.

Consider observing an undirected network that is `noisy' in the sense that there are Type I and Type II errors in the observation of edges. Such errors can arise, for example, in the context of inferring gene regulatory networks in genomics or functional connectivity networks in neuroscience. Given a single observed network then, to what extent are summary statistics for that network representative of their analogues for the true underlying network? Can we infer such statistics more accurately by taking into account the noise in the observed network edges? In this paper, we answer both of these questions. In particular, we develop a spectral-based methodology using the adjacency matrix to `denoise' the observed network data and produce more accurate inference of the summary statistics of the true network. We characterize performance of our methodology through bounds on appropriate notions of risk in the $L^2$ sense, and conclude by illustrating the practical impact of this work on synthetic and real-world data.

Gaussian processes are rich distributions over functions, which provide a Bayesian nonparametric approach to smoothing and interpolation. We introduce simple closed form kernels that can be used with Gaussian processes to discover patterns and enable extrapolation. These kernels are derived by modelling a spectral density -- the Fourier transform of a kernel -- with a Gaussian mixture. The proposed kernels support a broad class of stationary covariances, but Gaussian process inference remains simple and analytic. We demonstrate the proposed kernels by discovering patterns and performing long range extrapolation on synthetic examples, as well as atmospheric CO2 trends and airline passenger data. We also show that we can reconstruct standard covariances within our framework.

This paper proposes the formalization and implementation of a novel class of constraints aimed at modeling problems related to placement of multi-body systems in the 3-dimensional space. Each multi-body is a system composed of body elements, connected by joint relationships and constrained by geometric properties. The emphasis of this investigation is the use of multi-body systems to model native conformations of protein structures---where each body represents an entity of the protein (e.g., an amino acid, a small peptide) and the geometric constraints are related to the spatial properties of the composing atoms. The paper explores the use of the proposed class of constraints to support a variety of different structural analysis of proteins, such as loop modeling and structure prediction. The declarative nature of a constraint-based encoding provides elaboration tolerance and the ability to make use of any additional knowledge in the analysis studies. The filtering capabilities of the proposed constraints also allow to control the number of representative solutions that are withdrawn from the conformational space of the protein, by means of criteria driven by uniform distribution sampling principles. In this scenario it is possible to select the desired degree of precision and/or number of solutions. The filtering component automatically excludes configurations that violate the spatial and geometric properties of the composing multi-body system. The paper illustrates the implementation of a constraint solver based on the multi-body perspective and its empirical evaluation on protein structure analysis problems.

Multi-task learning has shown to significantly enhance the performance of multiple related learning tasks in a variety of situations. We present the fused logistic regression, a sparse multi-task learning approach for binary classification. Specifically, we introduce sparsity inducing penalties over parameter differences of related logistic regression models to encode similarity across related tasks. The resulting joint learning task is cast into a form that lends itself to be efficiently optimized with a recursive variant of the alternating direction method of multipliers. We show results on synthetic data and describe the regime of settings where our multi-task approach achieves significant improvements over the single task learning approach and discuss the implications on applying the fused logistic regression in different real world settings.

Training large machine learning (ML) models with many variables or parameters can take a long time if one employs sequential procedures even with stochastic updates. A natural solution is to turn to distributed computing on a cluster; however, naive, unstructured parallelization of ML algorithms does not usually lead to a proportional speedup and can even result in divergence, because dependencies between model elements can attenuate the computational gains from parallelization and compromise correctness of inference. Recent efforts toward this issue have benefited from exploiting the static, a priori block structures residing in ML algorithms. In this paper, we take this path further by exploring the dynamic block structures and workloads therein present during ML program execution, which offers new opportunities for improving convergence, correctness, and load balancing in distributed ML. We propose and showcase a general-purpose scheduler, STRADS, for coordinating distributed updates in ML algorithms, which harnesses the aforementioned opportunities in a 1 systematic way. We provide theoretical guarantees for our scheduler, and demonstrate its efficacy versus static block structures on Lasso and Matrix Factorization. 1. INTRODUCTION Sensory techniques and digital storage media have improved at a breakneck pace, leading to massive collections of data. The resultant so-called Big Data problems have been a common focus in recent enthusiasms toward scalable machine learning, and numerous algorithmic and system solutions have been proposed to alleviate the time-bottleneck due to Big Data by exploring various heuristic or principled strategies for data parallelism [3, 18, 20, 28].

Problems in machine learning (ML) can involve noisy input data, and ML classification methods have reached limiting accuracies when based on standard ML data sets consisting of feature vectors and their classes. Greater accuracy will require incorporation of prior structural information on data into learning. We study methods to regularize feature vectors (unsupervised regularization methods), analogous to supervised regularization for estimating functions in ML. We study regularization (denoising) of ML feature vectors using Tikhonov and other regularization methods for functions on ${\bf R}^n$. A feature vector ${\bf x}=(x_1,\ldots,x_n)=\{x_q\}_{q=1}^n$ is viewed as a function of its index $q$, and smoothed using prior information on its structure. This can involve a penalty functional on feature vectors analogous to those in statistical learning, or use of proximity (e.g. graph) structure on the set of indices. Such feature vector regularization inherits a property from function denoising on ${\bf R}^n$, in that accuracy is non-monotonic in the denoising (regularization) parameter $\alpha$. Under some assumptions about the noise level and the data structure, we show that the best reconstruction accuracy also occurs at a finite positive $\alpha$ in index spaces with graph structures. We adapt two standard function denoising methods used on ${\bf R}^n$, local averaging and kernel regression. In general the index space can be any discrete set with a notion of proximity, e.g. a metric space, a subset of ${\bf R}^n$, or a graph/network, with feature vectors as functions with some notion of continuity. We show this improves feature vector recovery, and thus the subsequent classification or regression done on them. We give an example in gene expression analysis for cancer classification with the genome as an index space and network structure based protein-protein interactions.

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating multiple graphical models simultaneously using the fused lasso penalty, which encourages adjacent graphs to share similar structures. A motivating example is the analysis of brain networks of Alzheimer's disease using neuroimaging data. Specifically, we may wish to estimate a brain network for the normal controls (NC), a brain network for the patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and a brain network for Alzheimer's patients (AD). We expect the two brain networks for NC and MCI to share common structures but not to be identical to each other; similarly for the two brain networks for MCI and AD. The proposed formulation can be solved using a second-order method. Our key technical contribution is to establish the necessary and sufficient condition for the graphs to be decomposable. Based on this key property, a simple screening rule is presented, which decomposes the large graphs into small subgraphs and allows an efficient estimation of multiple independent (small) subgraphs, dramatically reducing the computational cost. We perform experiments on both synthetic and real data; our results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Today, with respect to the increasing growth of demand to get credit from the customers of banks and finance and credit institutions, using an effective and efficient method to decrease the risk of non-repayment of credit given is very necessary. Assessment of customers' credit is one of the most important and the most essential duties of banks and institutions, and if an error occurs in this field, it would leads to the great losses for banks and institutions. Thus, using the predicting computer systems has been significantly progressed in recent decades. The data that are provided to the credit institutions' managers help them to make a straight decision for giving the credit or not-giving it. In this paper, we will assess the customer credit through a combined classification using artificial neural networks, genetics algorithm and Bayesian probabilities simultaneously, and the results obtained from three methods mentioned above would be used to achieve an appropriate and final result. We use the K_folds cross validation test in order to assess the method and finally, we compare the proposed method with the methods such as Clustering-Launched Classification (CLC), Support Vector Machine (SVM) as well as GA SVM where the genetics algorithm has been used to improve them. Keywords-Data classification; Combined Clustring; Artificial Neural Networks; Genetics Algorithm; Bayyesian Probabilities.