Fitting high-dimensional statistical models often requires the use of non-linear parameter estimation procedures. As a consequence, it is generally impossible to obtain an exact characterization of the probability distribution of the parameter estimates. This in turn implies that it is extremely challenging to quantify the `uncertainty' associated with a certain parameter estimate. Concretely, no commonly accepted procedure exists for computing classical measures of uncertainty and statistical significance as confidence intervals or p-values. We consider here a broad class of regression problems, and propose an efficient algorithm for constructing confidence intervals and p-values. The resulting confidence intervals have nearly optimal size. When testing for the null hypothesis that a certain parameter is vanishing, our method has nearly optimal power. Our approach is based on constructing a `de-biased' version of regularized M-estimators. The new construction improves over recent work in the field in that it does not assume a special structure on the design matrix. Furthermore, proofs are remarkably simple. We test our method on a diabetes prediction problem.

Inspired by real-time ad exchanges for online display advertising, we consider the problem of inferring a buyer's value distribution for a good when the buyer is repeatedly interacting with a seller through a posted-price mechanism.Wemodel the buyer as a strategic agent, whose goal is to maximize her long-term surplus, and we are interested in mechanisms that maximize the seller's long-term revenue. We define the natural notion of strategic regret --thelostrevenueasmeasured against a truthful (non-strategic) buyer. We present seller algorithms that are no- (strategic)-regret when the buyer discounts her future surplus -- i.e. the buyer prefers showing advertisements to users sooner rather than later. We also give a lower bound on strategic regret that increases as the buyer's discountingweakens and shows, in particular, that any seller algorithm will suffer linear strategic regret if there is no discounting.

Principal component analysis (PCA), a well-established technique for data analysis andprocessing, provides a convenient form of dimensionality reduction that is effective for cleaning small Gaussian noises presented in the data. However, the applicability of standard principal component analysis in real scenarios is limited by its sensitivity to large errors. In this paper, we tackle the challenge problem of recovering data corrupted with errors of high magnitude by developing a novel robust transfer principal component analysis method. Our method is based on the assumption that useful information for the recovery of a corrupted data matrix can be gained from an uncorrupted related data matrix. Specifically, we formulate the data recovery problem as a joint robust principal component analysis problem on the two data matrices, with common principal components shared across matrices and individual principal components specific to each data matrix. The formulated optimization problem is a minimization problem over a convex objective function but with non-convex rank constraints. We develop an efficient proximal projected gradient descent algorithm to solve the proposed optimization problem with convergence guarantees.Our empirical results over image denoising tasks show the proposed method can effectively recover images with random large errors, and significantly outperformboth standard PCA and robust PCA with rank constraints.

We consider design of linear projection measurements for a vector Poisson signal model. The projections are performed on the vector Poisson rate, $X\in\mathbb{R}_+^n$, and the observed data are a vector of counts, $Y\in\mathbb{Z}_+^m$. The projection matrix is designed by maximizing mutual information between $Y$ and $X$, $I(Y;X)$. When there is a latent class label $C\in\{1,\dots,L\}$ associated with $X$, we consider the mutual information with respect to $Y$ and $C$, $I(Y;C)$. New analytic expressions for the gradient of $I(Y;X)$ and $I(Y;C)$ are presented, with gradient performed with respect to the measurement matrix. Connections are made to the more widely studied Gaussian measurement model. Example results are presented for compressive topic modeling of a document corpora (word counting), and hyperspectral compressive sensing for chemical classification (photon counting).

Inspired by a two-level theory that unifies agenda setting and ideological framing, we propose supervised hierarchical latent Dirichlet allocation (SHLDA) which jointly captures documents' multi-level topic structure and their polar response variables. Our model extends the nested Chinese restaurant process to discover a tree-structured topic hierarchy and uses both per-topic hierarchical and per-word lexical regression parameters to model the response variables. Experiments in a political domain and on sentiment analysis tasks show that SHLDA improves predictive accuracy while adding a new dimension of insight into how topics under discussion are framed.

For classifying time series, a nearest-neighbor approach is widely used in practice with performance often competitive with or better than more elaborate methods such as neural networks, decision trees, and support vector machines. We develop theoretical justification for the effectiveness of nearest-neighbor-like classification of time series. Our guiding hypothesis is that in many applications, such as forecasting which topics will become trends on Twitter, there aren't actually that many prototypical time series to begin with, relative to the number of time series we have access to, e.g., topics become trends on Twitter only in a few distinct manners whereas we can collect massive amounts of Twitter data. To operationalize this hypothesis, we propose a latent source model for time series, which naturally leads to a weighted majority voting" classification rule that can be approximated by a nearest-neighbor classifier. We establish nonasymptotic performance guarantees of both weighted majority voting and nearest-neighbor classification under our model accounting for how much of the time series we observe and the model complexity. Experimental results on synthetic data show weighted majority voting achieving the same misclassification rate as nearest-neighbor classification while observing less of the time series. We then use weighted majority to forecast which news topics on Twitter become trends, where we are able to detect such "trending topics" in advance of Twitter 79% of the time, with a mean early advantage of 1 hour and 26 minutes, a true positive rate of 95%, and a false positive rate of 4%."

Discovering hierarchical regularities in data is a key problem in interacting with large datasets, modeling cognition, and encoding knowledge. A previous Bayesian solution---Kingman's coalescent---provides a convenient probabilistic model for data represented as a binary tree. Unfortunately, this is inappropriate for data better described by bushier trees. We generalize an existing belief propagation framework of Kingman's coalescent to the beta coalescent, which models a wider range of tree structures. Because of the complex combinatorial search over possible structures, we develop new sampling schemes using sequential Monte Carlo and Dirichlet process mixture models, which render inference efficient and tractable. We present results on both synthetic and real data that show the beta coalescent outperforms Kingman's coalescent on real datasets and is qualitatively better at capturing data in bushy hierarchies.

Lasso is a widely used regression technique to find sparse representations. When the dimension of the feature space and the number of samples are extremely large, solving the Lasso problem remains challenging. To improve the efficiency of solving large-scale Lasso problems, El Ghaoui and his colleagues have proposed the SAFE rules which are able to quickly identify the inactive predictors, i.e., predictors that have $0$ components in the solution vector. Then, the inactive predictors or features can be removed from the optimization problem to reduce its scale. By transforming the standard Lasso to its dual form, it can be shown that the inactive predictors include the set of inactive constraints on the optimal dual solution. In this paper, we propose an efficient and effective screening rule via Dual Polytope Projections (DPP), which is mainly based on the uniqueness and nonexpansiveness of the optimal dual solution due to the fact that the feasible set in the dual space is a convex and closed polytope. Moreover, we show that our screening rule can be extended to identify inactive groups in group Lasso. To the best of our knowledge, there is currently no exact" screening rule for group Lasso. We have evaluated our screening rule using many real data sets. Results show that our rule is more effective to identify inactive predictors than existing state-of-the-art screening rules for Lasso."

Seriation seeks to reconstruct a linear order between variables using unsorted similarity information. It has direct applications in archeology and shotgun gene sequencing for example. We prove the equivalence between the seriation and the combinatorial 2-sum problem (a quadratic minimization problem over permutations) over a class of similarity matrices. The seriation problem can be solved exactly by a spectral algorithm in the noiseless case and we produce a convex relaxation for the 2-sum problem to improve the robustness of solutions in a noisy setting. This relaxation also allows us to impose additional structural constraints on the solution, to solve semi-supervised seriation problems. We present numerical experiments on archeological data, Markov chains and gene sequences.

The efficiency of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI) largely depends upon a reliable extraction of informative features from the high-dimensional EEG signal. A crucial step in this protocol is the computation of spatial filters. The Common Spatial Patterns (CSP) algorithm computes filters that maximize the difference in band power between two conditions, thus it is tailored to extract the relevant information in motor imagery experiments. However, CSP is highly sensitive to artifacts in the EEG data, i.e. few outliers may alter the estimate drastically and decrease classification performance. Inspired by concepts from the field of information geometry we propose a novel approach for robustifying CSP. More precisely, we formulate CSP as a divergence maximization problem and utilize the property of a particular type of divergence, namely beta divergence, for robustifying the estimation of spatial filters in the presence of artifacts in the data. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method on toy data and on EEG recordings from 80 subjects.