We propose a new high dimensional semiparametric principal component analysis (PCA) method, named Copula Component Analysis (COCA). The semiparametric model assumes that, after unspecified marginally monotone transformations, the distributions are multivariate Gaussian. COCA improves upon PCA and sparse PCA in three aspects: (i) It is robust to modeling assumptions; (ii) It is robust to outliers and data contamination; (iii) It is scale-invariant and yields more interpretable results. We prove that the COCA estimators obtain fast estimation rates and are feature selection consistent when the dimension is nearly exponentially large relative to the sample size. Careful experiments confirm that COCA outperforms sparse PCA on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

CMF is a technique for simultaneously learning low-rank representations based on a collection of matrices with shared entities. A typical example is the joint modeling of user-item, item-property, and user-feature matrices in a recommender system. The key idea in CMF is that the embeddings are shared across the matrices, which enables transferring information between them. The existing solutions, however, break down when the individual matrices have low-rank structure not shared with others. In this work we present a novel CMF solution that allows each of the matrices to have a separate low-rank structure that is independent of the other matrices, as well as structures that are shared only by a subset of them. We compare MAP and variational Bayesian solutions based on alternating optimization algorithms and show that the model automatically infers the nature of each factor using group-wise sparsity. Our approach supports in a principled way continuous, binary and count observations and is efficient for sparse matrices involving missing data. We illustrate the solution on a number of examples, focusing in particular on an interesting use-case of augmented multi-view learning.

Set classification problems arise when classification tasks are based on sets of observations as opposed to individual observations. In set classification, a classification rule is trained with $N$ sets of observations, where each set is labeled with class information, and the prediction of a class label is performed also with a set of observations. Data sets for set classification appear, for example, in diagnostics of disease based on multiple cell nucleus images from a single tissue. Relevant statistical models for set classification are introduced, which motivate a set classification framework based on context-free feature extraction. By understanding a set of observations as an empirical distribution, we employ a data-driven method to choose those features which contain information on location and major variation. In particular, the method of principal component analysis is used to extract the features of major variation. Multidimensional scaling is used to represent features as vector-valued points on which conventional classifiers can be applied. The proposed set classification approaches achieve better classification results than competing methods in a number of simulated data examples. The benefits of our method are demonstrated in an analysis of histopathology images of cell nuclei related to liver cancer.

Unsupervised ranking faces one critical challenge in evaluation applications, that is, no ground truth is available. When PageRank and its variants show a good solution in related subjects, they are applicable only for ranking from link-structure data. In this work, we focus on unsupervised ranking from multi-attribute data which is also common in evaluation tasks. To overcome the challenge, we propose five essential meta-rules for the design and assessment of unsupervised ranking approaches: scale and translation invariance, strict monotonicity, linear/nonlinear capacities, smoothness, and explicitness of parameter size. These meta-rules are regarded as high level knowledge for unsupervised ranking tasks. Inspired by the works in [8] and [14], we propose a ranking principal curve (RPC) model, which learns a one-dimensional manifold function to perform unsupervised ranking tasks on multi-attribute observations. Furthermore, the RPC is modeled to be a cubic B\'ezier curve with control points restricted in the interior of a hypercube, thereby complying with all the five meta-rules to infer a reasonable ranking list. With control points as the model parameters, one is able to understand the learned manifold and to interpret the ranking list semantically. Numerical experiments of the presented RPC model are conducted on two open datasets of different ranking applications. In comparison with the state-of-the-art approaches, the new model is able to show more reasonable ranking lists.

Collecting and maintaining accurate world knowledge in a dynamic, complex, adversarial, and stochastic environment such as the RoboCup 3D Soccer Simulation is a challenging task. Knowledge should be learned in real-time with time constraints. We use recently introduced Off-Policy Gradient Descent algorithms within Reinforcement Learning that illustrate learnable knowledge representations for dynamic role assignments. The results show that the agents have learned competitive policies against the top teams from the RoboCup 2012 competitions for three vs three, five vs five, and seven vs seven agents. We have explicitly used subsets of agents to identify the dynamics and the semantics for which the agents learn to maximize their performance measures, and to gather knowledge about different objectives, so that all agents participate effectively and efficiently within the group.

Ranking measures play an important role in model evaluation and selection. Using both synthetic and real-world data sets, we investigate how different types and levels of noise affect the area under the ROC curve (AUC), the area under the ROC convex hull, the scored AUC, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, and the H-measure. In our experiments, the AUC was, overall, the most robust among these measures, thereby reinvigorating it as a reliable metric despite its well-known deficiencies. This paper also introduces a novel ranking measure, which is remarkably robust to noise yet conceptually simple.

In this paper we consider a problem of searching a space of predictive models for a given training data set. We propose an iterative procedure for deriving a sequence of improving models and a corresponding sequence of sets of non-linear features on the original input space. After a finite number of iterations N, the non-linear features become 2^N -degree polynomials on the original space. We show that in a limit of an infinite number of iterations derived non-linear features must form an associative algebra: a product of two features is equal to a linear combination of features from the same feature space for any given input point. Because each iteration consists of solving a series of convex problems that contain all previous solutions, the likelihood of the models in the sequence is increasing with each iteration while the dimension of the model parameter space is set to a limited controlled value.

We present a formal model of human decision-making in explore-exploit tasks using the context of multi-armed bandit problems, where the decision-maker must choose among multiple options with uncertain rewards. We address the standard multi-armed bandit problem, the multi-armed bandit problem with transition costs, and the multi-armed bandit problem on graphs. We focus on the case of Gaussian rewards in a setting where the decision-maker uses Bayesian inference to estimate the reward values. We model the decision-maker's prior knowledge with the Bayesian prior on the mean reward. We develop the upper credible limit (UCL) algorithm for the standard multi-armed bandit problem and show that this deterministic algorithm achieves logarithmic cumulative expected regret, which is optimal performance for uninformative priors. We show how good priors and good assumptions on the correlation structure among arms can greatly enhance decision-making performance, even over short time horizons. We extend to the stochastic UCL algorithm and draw several connections to human decision-making behavior. We present empirical data from human experiments and show that human performance is efficiently captured by the stochastic UCL algorithm with appropriate parameters. For the multi-armed bandit problem with transition costs and the multi-armed bandit problem on graphs, we generalize the UCL algorithm to the block UCL algorithm and the graphical block UCL algorithm, respectively. We show that these algorithms also achieve logarithmic cumulative expected regret and require a sub-logarithmic expected number of transitions among arms. We further illustrate the performance of these algorithms with numerical examples.

A general game player is a system that can play previously unknown games just by being given their rules. For this purpose, the Game Description Language (GDL) has been developed as a high-level knowledge representation formalism to communicate game rules to players. In this paper, we address a fundamental limitation of state-of-the-art methods and systems for General Game Playing, namely, their being confined to deterministic games with complete information about the game state. We develop a simple yet expressive extension of standard GDL that allows for formalising the rules of arbitrary finite, n-player games with randomness and incomplete state knowledge. In the second part of the paper, we address the intricate reasoning challenge for general game-playing systems that comes with the new description language. We develop a full embedding of extended GDL into the Situation Calculus augmented by Scherl and Levesque's knowledge fluent. We formally prove that this provides a sound and complete reasoning method for players' knowledge about game states as well as about the knowledge of the other players.

The law of total probability may be deployed in binary classification exercises to estimate the unconditional class probabilities if the class proportions in the training set are not representative of the population class proportions. We argue that this is not a conceptually sound approach and suggest an alternative based on the new law of total odds. We quantify the bias of the total probability estimator of the unconditional class probabilities and show that the total odds estimator is unbiased. The sample version of the total odds estimator is shown to coincide with a maximum-likelihood estimator known from the literature. The law of total odds can also be used for transforming the conditional class probabilities if independent estimates of the unconditional class probabilities of the population are available. Keywords: Total probability, likelihood ratio, Bayes' formula, binary classification, relative odds, unbiased estimator, supervised learning, dataset shift.