The analysis of high dimensional data, in which the number of measured predictors is large and can exceed the number of samples, is an important and common problem in statistical applications. When samples are accompanied by a real or categorical response, data analysis typically includes model fitting with the aim of doing prediction or variable selection, or both. The goal of prediction is to derive a rule capable of accurately predicting the response of a new, unlabeled sample. The goal of variable selection is to select a (small) subset of the measured predictors whose individual or coordinated activity is significantly related to the response. In both cases, it is common to assume that the observed data arise from an underlying model that is sparse, in the sense that only a small subset of the predictors are related to the response. Whether sparsity is assumed, or viewed as a desirable feature of a model, analysis of high dimensional data is often carried out by penalized methods that produce models in which a relatively small subset of the available predictors are included. Popular penalized methods include the LASSO (Tibshirani, 1996), its numerous variations, and SCAD (Fan and Li, 2001). In what follows, we focus our attention on the LASSO. The LASSO and its variants require specification of a penalty/tuning parameter that controls the tradeoff between model fit and model size.

Archetypal analysis (AA) represents observations as composition of pure patterns, i.e., archetypes, or equivalently convex combinations of extreme values (Cutler and Breiman, 1994). Although AA bears resemblance with many well established prototypical analysis tools, such as principal component analysis (PCA, Mohamed et al, 2009), nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF, F evotte and Idier, 2011), probabilistic latent semantic analysis (Hofmann, 2013), andk -means (Steinley, 2006); AA is arguably unique, both conceptually and computationally . Conceptually, AA imitates the human tendency of representing a group of objects by its extreme elements (Davis and Love, 2010): this makes AA an interesting exploratory tool for applied scientists (e.g., Eugster, 2012; Seiler and Wohlrabe, 2013). Computationally, AA is data-driven, and requires the factors to be probability vectors: these make AA a computationally demanding tool, yet brings better interpretability . The concept of AA was originally formulated by Cutler and Breiman (1994).

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on out-of-sample data. Using probit regression as an illustrative working example, this paper presents a general and effective methodology based on the pseudo-marginal approach to Markov chain Monte Carlo that efficiently addresses both of these issues. The results presented in this paper show improvements over existing sampling methods to simulate from the posterior distribution over the parameters defining the covariance function of the Gaussian Process prior. This is particularly important as it offers a powerful tool to carry out full Bayesian inference of Gaussian Process based hierarchic statistical models in general. The results also demonstrate that Monte Carlo based integration of all model parameters is actually feasible in this class of models providing a superior quantification of uncertainty in predictions. Extensive comparisons with respect to state-of-the-art probabilistic classifiers confirm this assertion.

This paper considers a portfolio trading strategy formulated by algorithms in the field of machine learning. The profitability of the strategy is measured by the algorithm's capability to consistently and accurately identify stock indices with positive or negative returns, and to generate a preferred portfolio allocation on the basis of a learned model. Stocks are characterized by time series data sets consisting of technical variables that reflect market conditions in a previous time interval, which are utilized produce binary classification decisions in subsequent intervals. The learned model is constructed as a committee of random forest classifiers, a nonlinear support vector machine classifier, a relevance vector machine classifier, and a constituent ensemble of k-nearest neighbors classifiers. This selection of algorithms is appealing for two reasons: first, there is strikingly little research in economic time-series forecasting that employs learners beyond neural networks and clustering algorithms, and this construction offers a viable alternative; second, this selection incorporates an array of techniques that have both theoretically optimal classification properties and high empirical success rates in areas outside of finance, in addition to offering a mixture of parametric and nonparametric models. The ensemble committee is augmented by a boosting meta-algorithm and feature selection is performed by a supervised Relief algorithm. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) is used to explore the ensemble model's efficacy within the context of various fields of investment including Energy, Materials, Financials, and Information Technology. Data from 2006 to 2012, inclusive, are considered, which are chosen for providing a range of market circumstances for evaluating the model. The model is observed to achieve an accuracy of approximately 70% when predicting stock price returns three months in advance.

We describe a constraint-based timetabling system that was developed for the dental school based at Cork University Hospital in Ireland. Dental school timetabling differs from other university course scheduling in that certain clinic sessions can be used by multiple courses at the same time, provided a limit on room capacity is satisfied. Solutions for the years 2010, 2011 and 2012 have been used in the dental school, replacing a manual timetabling process, which could no longer cope with increasing student numbers and resulting resource bottlenecks. The use of the automated system allowed the dental school to increase the number of students enrolled to the maximum possible given the available resources.

Useful feedback makes use of models of domain-specific knowledge, especially models that are commonly held by potential students. To empirically determine what these models are, student data can be clustered to reveal common misconceptions or common problem-solving strategies. We use this approach to cluster a corpus of hand-drawn student sketches to discover common answers.

Inappropriate prescribing of antimicrobials is a major clinical concern that affects as many as 50 percent of prescriptions. To solve this problem, we have developed and deployed an automated antimicrobial prescription surveillance system that assists hospital pharmacists in identifying and reporting inappropriate prescriptions. Since its deployment, the system has improved antimicrobial prescribing and decreased antimicrobial use. As a remedy, we are developing a machine learning algorithm that combines instance-based learning and rule induction techniques to discover new rules for detecting inappropriate prescriptions from previous false alerts.

This article focuses on the problem of patterns of life (POL), which emerge from human social systems. It describes conflicting requirements for this problem and potential AI solutions.

These articles were selected for their description of AI technologies that are either in practical use or close to it. Five of the articles describe deployed application case studies. These articles present fielded AI applications that distinguish themselves for their innovative use of AI technology. One article describes an emerging application. It presents an area where AI technology can have a practical impact. Another article describes a challenge problem; it presents to the AI community at large a problem where AI could make a significant difference.

This article describes GRADE, a statistical machine learning system developed to support the work of the graduate admissions committee at the University of Texas at Austin Department of Computer Science (UTCS). In recent years, the number of applications to the UTCS PhD program has become too large to manage with a traditional review process. GRADE uses historical admissions data to predict how likely the committee is to admit each new applicant. It reports each prediction as a score similar to those used by human reviewers, and accompanies each by an explanation of what applicant features most influenced its prediction. GRADE makes the review process more efficient by enabling reviewers to spend most of their time on applicants near the decision boundary and by focusing their attention on parts of each applicant’s file that matter the most. An evaluation over two seasons of PhD admissions indicates that the system leads to dramatic time savings, reducing the total time spent on reviews by at least 74 percent.