We introduce a new framework to model interactions among agents which seek to trade to minimize their risk with respect to some future outcome. We quantify this risk using the concept of risk measures from finance, and introduce a class of trade dynamics which allow agents to trade contracts contingent upon the future outcome. We then show that these trade dynamics exactly correspond to a variant of randomized coordinate descent. By extending the analysis of these coordinate descent methods to account for our more organic setting, we are able to show convergence rates for very general trade dynamics, showing that the market or network converges to a unique steady state. Applying these results to prediction markets, we expand on recent results by adding convergence rates and general aggregation properties. Finally, we illustrate the generality of our framework by applying it to agent interactions on a scale-free network.

In this manuscript we consider the problem of jointly estimating multiple graphical models in high dimensions. We assume that the data are collected from n subjects, each of which consists of T possibly dependent observations. The graphical models of subjects vary, but are assumed to change smoothly corresponding to a measure of closeness between subjects. We propose a kernel based method for jointly estimating all graphical models. Theoretically, under a double asymptotic framework, where both (T,n) and the dimension d can increase, we provide the explicit rate of convergence in parameter estimation. It characterizes the strength one can borrow across different individuals and impact of data dependence on parameter estimation. Empirically, experiments on both synthetic and real resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Measuring the effectiveness of corporate environmental reports, it being highly qualitative and less regulated, is often considered as a daunting task. The task becomes more complex if comparisons are to be performed. This study is undertaken to overcome the physical verification problems by implementing data mining technique. It further explores on the effectiveness by performing exploratory analysis and structural equation model to bring out the significant linkages between the selected 10 variables. Samples of five hundred and thirty nine reports across various countries are used from an international directory to perform the statistical analysis like: One way ANOVA (Analysis of Variance), MDA (Multivariate Discriminant Analysis) and SEM (Structural Equation Modeling). The results indicate the significant differences among the various types of industries in their environmental reporting, and the exploratory factors like stakeholder, organization strategy and industrial oriented factors, proved significant. The major accomplishment is that the findings correlate with the conceptual frame work of GRI.

This paper deals with the problem of classical planning for multiple cooperative agents who have private information about their local state and capabilities they do not want to reveal. Two main approaches have recently been proposed to solve this type of problem -- one is based on reduction to distributed constraint satisfaction, and the other on partial-order planning techniques. In classical single-agent planning, constraint-based and partial-order planning techniques are currently dominated by heuristic forward search. The question arises whether it is possible to formulate a distributed heuristic forward search algorithm for privacy-preserving classical multi-agent planning. Our work provides a positive answer to this question in the form of a general approach to distributed state-space search in which each agent performs only the part of the state expansion relevant to it. The resulting algorithms are simple and efficient -- outperforming previous algorithms by orders of magnitude -- while offering similar flexibility to that of forward-search algorithms for single-agent planning. Furthermore, one particular variant of our general approach yields a distributed version of the A* algorithm that is the first cost-optimal distributed algorithm for privacy-preserving planning.

On the Properties of Neural Machine Translation: Encoder-Decoder Approaches Kyunghyun Cho Bart van Merri enboer Universit e de Montr eal Dzmitry Bahdanau Jacobs University, Germany Yoshua Bengio Universit e de Montr eal, CIFAR Senior Fellow Abstract Neural machine translation is a relatively new approach to statistical machine translation based purely on neural networks. The neural machine translation models often consist of an encoder and a decoder. The encoder extracts a fixed-length representation from a variable-length input sentence, and the decoder generates a correct translation from this representation. In this paper, we focus on analyzing the properties of the neural machine translation using two models; RNN Encoder-Decoder and a newly proposed gated recursive con-volutional neural network. We show that the neural machine translation performs relatively well on short sentences without unknown words, but its performance degrades rapidly as the length of the sentence and the number of unknown words increase. Furthermore, we find that the proposed gated recursive convolutional network learns a grammatical structure of a sentence automatically. 1 Introduction A new approach for statistical machine translation based purely on neural networks has recently been proposed (Kalchbrenner and Blunsom, 2013; Sutskever et al., 2014). This new approach, which we refer to as neural machine translation, is inspired by the recent trend of deep representational learning. All the neural network models used in (Kalchbrenner and Blunsom, 2013; Sutskever et al., 2014; Cho et al., 2014) consist of an encoder and a decoder.

In recent years, the field of pattern recognition has seen many problems that are difficult to formulate as regular supervised classification problems where (feature vector, label) pairs are available to train a classifier that, in turn, can predict labels for previously unseen feature vectors. A subset of these problems contains learning scenarios where (part of) the objects are represented by sets or bags of feature vectors or instances. Such learning scenarios include multiple instance learning [11], set classification [42], group-based classification [47] and many others. In this paper we review these learning scenarios. There are several reasons why a bag representation might be chosen in a pattern recognition problem. The first reason is that a single feature vector is often too restrictive to describe an object. For example, in drug activity prediction, we are interested in classifying molecules as having the desired effect (active) or not. However, a molecule is not just a list of its elements: most molecules can fold into different shapes or conformations, which can influence the activity of that molecule.

Large-scale recurrent networks have drawn increasing attention recently because of their capabilities in modeling a large variety of real-world phenomena and physical mechanisms. This paper studies how to identify all authentic connections and estimate system parameters of a recurrent network, given a sequence of node observations. This task becomes extremely challenging in modern network applications, because the available observations are usually very noisy and limited, and the associated dynamical system is strongly nonlinear. By formulating the problem as multivariate sparse sigmoidal regression, we develop simple-to-implement network learning algorithms, with rigorous convergence guarantee in theory, for a variety of sparsity-promoting penalty forms. A quantile variant of progressive recurrent network screening is proposed for efficient computation and allows for direct cardinality control of network topology in estimation. Moreover, we investigate recurrent network stability conditions in Lyapunov's sense, and integrate such stability constraints into sparse network learning. Experiments show excellent performance of the proposed algorithms in network topology identification and forecasting.

We present an approximation scheme for support vector machine models that use an RBF kernel. A second-order Maclaurin series approximation is used for exponentials of inner products between support vectors and test instances. The approximation is applicable to all kernel methods featuring sums of kernel evaluations and makes no assumptions regarding data normalization. The prediction speed of approximated models no longer relates to the amount of support vectors but is quadratic in terms of the number of input dimensions. If the number of input dimensions is small compared to the amount of support vectors, the approximated model is significantly faster in prediction and has a smaller memory footprint. An optimized C++ implementation was made to assess the gain in prediction speed in a set of practical tests. We additionally provide a method to verify the approximation accuracy, prior to training models or during run-time, to ensure the loss in accuracy remains acceptable and within known bounds.

This work establishes distribution-free upper and lower bounds on the minimax label complexity of active learning with general hypothesis classes, under various noise models. The results reveal a number of surprising facts. In particular, under the noise model of Tsybakov (2004), the minimax label complexity of active learning with a VC class is always asymptotically smaller than that of passive learning, and is typically significantly smaller than the best previously-published upper bounds in the active learning literature. In high-noise regimes, it turns out that all active learning problems of a given VC dimension have roughly the same minimax label complexity, which contrasts with well-known results for bounded noise. In low-noise regimes, we find that the label complexity is well-characterized by a simple combinatorial complexity measure we call the star number. Interestingly, we find that almost all of the complexity measures previously explored in the active learning literature have worst-case values exactly equal to the star number. We also propose new active learning strategies that nearly achieve these minimax label complexities.

The logistic normal distribution has recently been adapted via the transformation of multivariate Gaus- sian variables to model the topical distribution of documents in the presence of correlations among topics. In this paper, we propose a probit normal alternative approach to modelling correlated topical structures. Our use of the probit model in the context of topic discovery is novel, as many authors have so far con- centrated solely of the logistic model partly due to the formidable inefficiency of the multinomial probit model even in the case of very small topical spaces. We herein circumvent the inefficiency of multinomial probit estimation by using an adaptation of the diagonal orthant multinomial probit in the topic models context, resulting in the ability of our topic modelling scheme to handle corpuses with a large number of latent topics. An additional and very important benefit of our method lies in the fact that unlike with the logistic normal model whose non-conjugacy leads to the need for sophisticated sampling schemes, our ap- proach exploits the natural conjugacy inherent in the auxiliary formulation of the probit model to achieve greater simplicity. The application of our proposed scheme to a well known Associated Press corpus not only helps discover a large number of meaningful topics but also reveals the capturing of compellingly intuitive correlations among certain topics. Besides, our proposed approach lends itself to even further scalability thanks to various existing high performance algorithms and architectures capable of handling millions of documents.