We discuss two views on extending existing methods for complex network modeling which we dub the communities first and the networks first view, respectively. Inspired by the networks first view that we attribute to White, Boorman, and Breiger (1976)[1], we formulate the multiple-networks stochastic blockmodel (MNSBM), which seeks to separate the observed network into subnetworks of different types and where the problem of inferring structure in each subnetwork becomes easier. We show how this model is specified in a generative Bayesian framework where parameters can be inferred efficiently using Gibbs sampling. The result is an effective multiple-membership model without the drawbacks of introducing complex definitions of "groups" and how they interact. We demonstrate results on the recovery of planted structure in synthetic networks and show very encouraging results on link prediction performances using multiple-networks models on a number of real-world network data sets.

Rodent hippocampal population codes represent important spatial information about the environment during navigation. Several computational methods have been developed to uncover the neural representation of spatial topology embedded in rodent hippocampal ensemble spike activity. Here we extend our previous work and propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach to infer rat hippocampal population codes during spatial navigation. To tackle the model selection problem, we leverage a nonparametric Bayesian model. Specifically, to analyze rat hippocampal ensemble spiking activity, we apply a hierarchical Dirichlet process-hidden Markov model (HDP-HMM) using two Bayesian inference methods, one based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the other based on variational Bayes (VB). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian approaches on recordings from a freely-behaving rat navigating in an open field environment. We find that MCMC-based inference with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) hyperparameter sampling is flexible and efficient, and outperforms VB and MCMC approaches with hyperparameters set by empirical Bayes.

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based model is a computational approach commonly used for modeling the complex relationships between input and output parameters. Prediction of the flow rate of a river is a requisite for any successful water resource management and river basin planning. In the current survey, the effectiveness of an Artificial Neural Network was examined to predict the Colorado River discharge. In this modeling process, an ANN model was used to relate the discharge of the Colorado River to such parameters as the amount of precipitation, ambient temperature and snowpack level at a specific time of the year. The model was able to precisely study the impact of climatic parameters on the flow rate of the Colorado River. Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Discharge, Colorado River, River basin planning 1. Introduction The volumetric flow rate of a river, also called its discharge, at a particular point, is the volume of water passing through the cross section of the river at that point in a unit of time. As aforementioned, forecasting the flow rate of a river could be very useful in water resources management. Any seasonal river basin planning for designation of water between different consumers can not succeed without knowing/predicting the amount of water (i.e.

The problem of finding the missing values of a matrix given a few of its entries, called matrix completion, has gathered a lot of attention in the recent years. Although the problem under the standard low rank assumption is NP-hard, Cand\`es and Recht showed that it can be exactly relaxed if the number of observed entries is sufficiently large. In this work, we introduce a novel matrix completion model that makes use of proximity information about rows and columns by assuming they form communities. This assumption makes sense in several real-world problems like in recommender systems, where there are communities of people sharing preferences, while products form clusters that receive similar ratings. Our main goal is thus to find a low-rank solution that is structured by the proximities of rows and columns encoded by graphs. We borrow ideas from manifold learning to constrain our solution to be smooth on these graphs, in order to implicitly force row and column proximities. Our matrix recovery model is formulated as a convex non-smooth optimization problem, for which a well-posed iterative scheme is provided. We study and evaluate the proposed matrix completion on synthetic and real data, showing that the proposed structured low-rank recovery model outperforms the standard matrix completion model in many situations.

Identifying important components or factors in large amounts of noisy data is a key problem in machine learning and data mining. Motivated by a pattern decomposition problem in materials discovery, aimed at discovering new materials for renewable energy, e.g. for fuel and solar cells, we introduce CombiFD, a framework for factor based pattern decomposition that allows the incorporation of a-priori knowledge as constraints, including complex combinatorial constraints. In addition, we propose a new pattern decomposition algorithm, called AMIQO, based on solving a sequence of (mixed-integer) quadratic programs. Our approach considerably outperforms the state of the art on the materials discovery problem, scaling to larger datasets and recovering more precise and physically meaningful decompositions. We also show the effectiveness of our approach for enforcing background knowledge on other application domains.

We propose a new algorithm called PLUTO for building logistic regression trees to binary response data. PLUTO can capture the nonlinear and interaction patterns in messy data by recursively partitioning the sample space. It fits a simple or a multiple linear logistic regression model in each partition. PLUTO employs the cyclical coordinate descent method for estimation of multiple linear logistic regression models with elastic net penalties, which allows it to deal with high-dimensional data efficiently. The tree structure comprises a graphical description of the data. Together with the logistic regression models, it provides an accurate classifier as well as a piecewise smooth estimate of the probability of "success". PLUTO controls selection bias by: (1) separating split variable selection from split point selection; (2) applying an adjusted chi-squared test to find the split variable instead of exhaustive search. A bootstrap calibration technique is employed to further correct selection bias. Comparison on real datasets shows that on average, the multiple linear PLUTO models predict more accurately than other algorithms.

We propose the product-of-filters (PoF) model, a generative model that decomposes audio spectra as sparse linear combinations of "filters" in the log-spectral domain. PoF makes similar assumptions to those used in the classic homomorphic filtering approach to signal processing, but replaces hand-designed decompositions built of basic signal processing operations with a learned decomposition based on statistical inference. This paper formulates the PoF model and derives a mean-field method for posterior inference and a variational EM algorithm to estimate the model's free parameters. We demonstrate PoF's potential for audio processing on a bandwidth expansion task, and show that PoF can serve as an effective unsupervised feature extractor for a speaker identification task.

We explore the idea that authoring a piece of text is an act of maximizing one's expected utility. To make this idea concrete, we consider the societally important decisions of the Supreme Court of the United States. Extensive past work in quantitative political science provides a framework for empirically modeling the decisions of justices and how they relate to text. We incorporate into such a model texts authored by amici curiae ("friends of the court" separate from the litigants) who seek to weigh in on the decision, then explicitly model their goals in a random utility model. We demonstrate the benefits of this approach in improved vote prediction and the ability to perform counterfactual analysis.

This dissertation shows that careful injection of noise into sample data can substantially speed up Expectation-Maximization algorithms. Expectation-Maximization algorithms are a class of iterative algorithms for extracting maximum likelihood estimates from corrupted or incomplete data. The convergence speed-up is an example of a noise benefit or "stochastic resonance" in statistical signal processing. The dissertation presents derivations of sufficient conditions for such noise-benefits and demonstrates the speed-up in some ubiquitous signal-processing algorithms. These algorithms include parameter estimation for mixture models, the $k$-means clustering algorithm, the Baum-Welch algorithm for training hidden Markov models, and backpropagation for training feedforward artificial neural networks. This dissertation also analyses the effects of data and model corruption on the more general Bayesian inference estimation framework. The main finding is a theorem guaranteeing that uniform approximators for Bayesian model functions produce uniform approximators for the posterior pdf via Bayes theorem. This result also applies to hierarchical and multidimensional Bayesian models.

Ensemble-of-trees methods have become popular choices for forecasting in both regression and classification problems. Algorithms such as random forests (Breiman 2001) and stochastic gradient boosting (Friedman 2002) are two well-established and widely employed procedures. Recent advances in ensemble methods include dynamic trees (Taddy, Gramacy, and Polson 2011) and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART, Chipman, George, and McCulloch 2010), which depart from predecessors in that they rely on an underlying Bayesian probability model rather than a pure algorithm. BART has demonstrated substantial promise in a wide variety of simulations and real world applications such as predicting avalanches on mountain roads (Blattenberger and Fowles 2014), predicting how transcription factors interact with DNA (Zhou and Liu 2008) and predicting movie box office revenues (Eliashberg 2010). This paper introduces bartMachine, a new R (R Core Team 2014) package available from the Comprehensive R Archive Network at http://CRAN.R-project.org/package