We introduce a natural extension of the notion of swap regret, conditional swap regret, that allows for action modifications conditioned on the player’s action history. We prove a series of new results for conditional swap regret minimization. We present algorithms for minimizing conditional swap regret with bounded conditioning history. We further extend these results to the case where conditional swaps are considered only for a subset of actions. We also define a new notion of equilibrium, conditional correlated equilibrium, that is tightly connected to the notion of conditional swap regret: when all players follow conditional swap regret minimization strategies, then the empirical distribution approaches this equilibrium. Finally, we extend our results to the multi-armed bandit scenario.

In many modern applications from, for example, bioinformatics and computer vision, samples have multiple feature representations coming from different data sources. Multiview learning algorithms try to exploit all these available information to obtain a better learner in such scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel multiple kernel learning algorithm that extends kernel k-means clustering to the multiview setting, which combines kernels calculated on the views in a localized way to better capture sample-specific characteristics of the data. We demonstrate the better performance of our localized data fusion approach on a human colon and rectal cancer data set by clustering patients. Our method finds more relevant prognostic patient groups than global data fusion methods when we evaluate the results with respect to three commonly used clinical biomarkers.

In this paper we consider the problem of learning online what is the information to consider when making sequential decisions. We formalize this as a contextual multi-armed bandit problem where a high dimensional ($D$-dimensional) context vector arrives to a learner which needs to select an action to maximize its expected reward at each time step. Each dimension of the context vector is called a type. We assume that there exists an unknown relation between actions and types, called the relevance relation, such that the reward of an action only depends on the contexts of the relevant types. When the relation is a function, i.e., the reward of an action only depends on the context of a single type, and the expected reward of an action is Lipschitz continuous in the context of its relevant type, we propose an algorithm that achieves $\tilde{O}(T^{\gamma})$ regret with a high probability, where $\gamma=2/(1+\sqrt{2})$. Our algorithm achieves this by learning the unknown relevance relation, whereas prior contextual bandit algorithms that do not exploit the existence of a relevance relation will have $\tilde{O}(T^{(D+1)/(D+2)})$ regret. Our algorithm alternates between exploring and exploiting, it does not require reward observations in exploitations, and it guarantees with a high probability that actions with suboptimality greater than $\epsilon$ are never selected in exploitations. Our proposed method can be applied to a variety of learning applications including medical diagnosis, recommender systems, popularity prediction from social networks, network security etc., where at each instance of time vast amounts of different types of information are available to the decision maker, but the effect of an action depends only on a single type.

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is a fundamental learning rule for statistical learning problems where the data is generated according to some unknown distribution $\mathsf{P}$ and returns a hypothesis $f$ chosen from a fixed class $\mathcal{F}$ with small loss $\ell$. In the parametric setting, depending upon $(\ell, \mathcal{F},\mathsf{P})$ ERM can have slow $(1/\sqrt{n})$ or fast $(1/n)$ rates of convergence of the excess risk as a function of the sample size $n$. There exist several results that give sufficient conditions for fast rates in terms of joint properties of $\ell$, $\mathcal{F}$, and $\mathsf{P}$, such as the margin condition and the Bernstein condition. In the non-statistical prediction with expert advice setting, there is an analogous slow and fast rate phenomenon, and it is entirely characterized in terms of the mixability of the loss $\ell$ (there being no role there for $\mathcal{F}$ or $\mathsf{P}$). The notion of stochastic mixability builds a bridge between these two models of learning, reducing to classical mixability in a special case. The present paper presents a direct proof of fast rates for ERM in terms of stochastic mixability of $(\ell,\mathcal{F}, \mathsf{P})$, and in so doing provides new insight into the fast-rates phenomenon. The proof exploits an old result of Kemperman on the solution to the general moment problem. We also show a partial converse that suggests a characterization of fast rates for ERM in terms of stochastic mixability is possible.

Performing interventions is a major challenge in economic policy-making. We propose \emph{causal strategic inference} as a framework for conducting interventions and apply it to large, networked microfinance economies. The basic solution platform consists of modeling a microfinance market as a networked economy, learning the parameters of the model from the real-world microfinance data, and designing algorithms for various computational problems in question. We adopt Nash equilibrium as the solution concept for our model. For a special case of our model, we show that an equilibrium point always exists and that the equilibrium interest rates are unique. For the general case, we give a constructive proof of the existence of an equilibrium point. Our empirical study is based on the microfinance data from Bangladesh and Bolivia, which we use to first learn our models. We show that causal strategic inference can assist policy-makers by evaluating the outcomes of various types of interventions, such as removing a loss-making bank from the market, imposing an interest rate cap, and subsidizing banks.

Hierarchical clustering methods offer an intuitive and powerful way to model a wide variety of data sets. However, the assumption of a fixed hierarchy is often overly restrictive when working with data generated over a period of time: We expect both the structure of our hierarchy, and the parameters of the clusters, to evolve with time. In this paper, we present a distribution over collections of time-dependent, infinite-dimensional trees that can be used to model evolving hierarchies, and present an efficient and scalable algorithm for performing approximate inference in such a model. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model and inference algorithm on both synthetic data and real-world document corpora.

Stochastic gradient descent algorithms for training linear and kernel predictors are gaining more and more importance, thanks to their scalability. While various methods have been proposed to speed up their convergence, the model selection phase is often ignored. In fact, in theoretical works most of the time assumptions are made, for example, on the prior knowledge of the norm of the optimal solution, while in the practical world validation methods remain the only viable approach. In this paper, we propose a new kernel-based stochastic gradient descent algorithm that performs model selection while training, with no parameters to tune, nor any form of cross-validation. The algorithm builds on recent advancement in online learning theory for unconstrained settings, to estimate over time the right regularization in a data-dependent way. Optimal rates of convergence are proved under standard smoothness assumptions on the target function as well as preliminary empirical results.

Distributed learning of probabilistic models from multiple data repositories with minimum communication is increasingly important. We study a simple communication-efficient learning framework that first calculates the local maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) based on the data subsets, and then combines the local MLEs to achieve the best possible approximation to the global MLE, based on the whole dataset jointly. We study the statistical properties of this framework, showing that the loss of efficiency compared to the global setting relates to how much the underlying distribution families deviate from full exponential families, drawing connection to the theory of information loss by Fisher, Rao and Efron. We show that the full-exponential-family-ness" represents the lower bound of the error rate of arbitrary combinations of local MLEs, and is achieved by a KL-divergence-based combination method but not by a more common linear combination method. We also study the empirical properties of the KL and linear combination methods, showing that the KL method significantly outperforms linear combination in practical settings with issues such as model misspecification, non-convexity, and heterogeneous data partitions."

Our understanding of the neural computations that underlie the ability of animals to choose among options has advanced through a synthesis of computational modeling, brain imaging and behavioral choice experiments. Yet, there remains a gulf between theories of preference learning and accounts of the real, economic choices that humans face in daily life, choices that are usually between some amount of money and an item. In this paper, we develop a theory of magnitude-sensitive preference learning that permits an agent to rationally infer its preferences for items compared with money options of different magnitudes. We show how this theory yields classical and anomalous supply-demand curves and predicts choices for a large panel of risky lotteries. Accurate replications of such phenomena without recourse to utility functions suggest that the theory proposed is both psychologically realistic and econometrically viable.

The l1-regularized logistic regression (or sparse logistic regression) is a widely used method for simultaneous classification and feature selection. Although many recent efforts have been devoted to its efficient implementation, its application to high dimensional data still poses significant challenges. In this paper, we present a fast and effective sparse logistic regression screening rule (Slores) to identify the zero components in the solution vector, which may lead to a substantial reduction in the number of features to be entered to the optimization. An appealing feature of Slores is that the data set needs to be scanned only once to run the screening and its computational cost is negligible compared to that of solving the sparse logistic regression problem. Moreover, Slores is independent of solvers for sparse logistic regression, thus Slores can be integrated with any existing solver to improve the efficiency. We have evaluated Slores using high-dimensional data sets from different applications. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that Slores outperforms the existing state-of-the-art screening rules and the efficiency of solving sparse logistic regression is improved by one magnitude in general.