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Empirically Estimable Classification Bounds Based on a New Divergence Measure

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Information divergence functions play a critical role in statistics and information theory. In this paper we show that a non-parametric f-divergence measure can be used to provide improved bounds on the minimum binary classification probability of error for the case when the training and test data are drawn from the same distribution and for the case where there exists some mismatch between training and test distributions. We confirm the theoretical results by designing feature selection algorithms using the criteria from these bounds and by evaluating the algorithms on a series of pathological speech classification tasks.


An Aggregation Method for Sparse Logistic Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

$L_1$ regularized logistic regression has now become a workhorse of data mining and bioinformatics: it is widely used for many classification problems, particularly ones with many features. However, $L_1$ regularization typically selects too many features and that so-called false positives are unavoidable. In this paper, we demonstrate and analyze an aggregation method for sparse logistic regression in high dimensions. This approach linearly combines the estimators from a suitable set of logistic models with different underlying sparsity patterns and can balance the predictive ability and model interpretability. Numerical performance of our proposed aggregation method is then investigated using simulation studies. We also analyze a published genome-wide case-control dataset to further evaluate the usefulness of the aggregation method in multilocus association mapping.


Evaluation of modelling approaches for predicting the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon stocks at the national scale

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a major role in the global carbon budget. It can act as a source or a sink of atmospheric carbon, thereby possibly influencing the course of climate change. Improving the tools that model the spatial distributions of SOC stocks at national scales is a priority, both for monitoring changes in SOC and as an input for global carbon cycles studies. In this paper, we compare and evaluate two recent and promising modelling approaches. First, we considered several increasingly complex boosted regression trees (BRT), a convenient and efficient multiple regression model from the statistical learning field. Further, we considered a robust geostatistical approach coupled to the BRT models. Testing the different approaches was performed on the dataset from the French Soil Monitoring Network, with a consistent cross-validation procedure. We showed that when a limited number of predictors were included in the BRT model, the standalone BRT predictions were significantly improved by robust geostatistical modelling of the residuals. However, when data for several SOC drivers were included, the standalone BRT model predictions were not significantly improved by geostatistical modelling. Therefore, in this latter situation, the BRT predictions might be considered adequate without the need for geostatistical modelling, provided that i) care is exercised in model fitting and validating, and ii) the dataset does not allow for modelling of local spatial autocorrelations, as is the case for many national systematic sampling schemes.


Predicting Alzheimer's disease: a neuroimaging study with 3D convolutional neural networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is the most common type of dementia. Dementia refers to diseases that are characterized by a loss of memory or other cognitive impairments, and is caused by damage to nerve cells in the brain. In the United States, an estimated 5.2 million people of all ages have AD in 2014. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a condition in which an individual has mild but noticeable changes in thinking abilities. Individuals with MCI are more likely to develop AD than inviduals without [1]. Early detection of the disease can be achieved by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), a technique that uses a magnetic field and radio waves to create a detailed 3D image of the brain.


From Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we combine ideas from machine learning (ML) and operations research and management science (OR/MS) in developing a framework, along with specific methods, for using data to prescribe decisions in OR/MS problems. In a departure from other work on data-driven optimization and reflecting our practical experience with the data available in applications of OR/MS, we consider data consisting, not only of observations of quantities with direct effect on costs/revenues, such as demand or returns, but predominantly of observations of associated auxiliary quantities. The main problem of interest is a conditional stochastic optimization problem, given imperfect observations, where the joint probability distributions that specify the problem are unknown. We demonstrate that our proposed solution methods are generally applicable to a wide range of decision problems. We prove that they are computationally tractable and asymptotically optimal under mild conditions even when data is not independent and identically distributed (iid) and even for censored observations. As an analogue to the coefficient of determination $R^2$, we develop a metric $P$ termed the coefficient of prescriptiveness to measure the prescriptive content of data and the efficacy of a policy from an operations perspective. To demonstrate the power of our approach in a real-world setting we study an inventory management problem faced by the distribution arm of an international media conglomerate, which ships an average of 1 billion units per year. We leverage both internal data and public online data harvested from IMDb, Rotten Tomatoes, and Google to prescribe operational decisions that outperform baseline measures. Specifically, the data we collect, leveraged by our methods, accounts for an 88% improvement as measured by our coefficient of prescriptiveness.


Measuring the functional connectome "on-the-fly": towards a new control signal for fMRI-based brain-computer interfaces

arXiv.org Machine Learning

There has been an explosion of interest in functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) during the past two decades. Naturally, this has been accompanied by many major advances in the understanding of the human connectome. These advances have served to pose novel challenges as well as open new avenues for research. One of the most promising and exciting of such avenues is the study of functional MRI in real-time. Such studies have recently gained momentum and have been applied in a wide variety of settings; ranging from training of healthy subjects to self-regulate neuronal activity to being suggested as potential treatments for clinical populations. To date, the vast majority of these studies have focused on a single region at a time. This is due in part to the many challenges faced when estimating dynamic functional connectivity networks in real-time. In this work we propose a novel methodology with which to accurately track changes in functional connectivity networks in real-time. We adapt the recently proposed SINGLE algorithm for estimating sparse and temporally homo- geneous dynamic networks to be applicable in real-time. The proposed method is applied to motor task data from the Human Connectome Project as well as to real-time data ob- tained while exploring a virtual environment. We show that the algorithm is able to estimate significant task-related changes in network structure quickly enough to be useful in future brain-computer interface applications.


RELEAF: An Algorithm for Learning and Exploiting Relevance

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recommender systems, medical diagnosis, network security, etc., require on-going learning and decision-making in real time. These -- and many others -- represent perfect examples of the opportunities and difficulties presented by Big Data: the available information often arrives from a variety of sources and has diverse features so that learning from all the sources may be valuable but integrating what is learned is subject to the curse of dimensionality. This paper develops and analyzes algorithms that allow efficient learning and decision-making while avoiding the curse of dimensionality. We formalize the information available to the learner/decision-maker at a particular time as a context vector which the learner should consider when taking actions. In general the context vector is very high dimensional, but in many settings, the most relevant information is embedded into only a few relevant dimensions. If these relevant dimensions were known in advance, the problem would be simple -- but they are not. Moreover, the relevant dimensions may be different for different actions. Our algorithm learns the relevant dimensions for each action, and makes decisions based in what it has learned. Formally, we build on the structure of a contextual multi-armed bandit by adding and exploiting a relevance relation. We prove a general regret bound for our algorithm whose time order depends only on the maximum number of relevant dimensions among all the actions, which in the special case where the relevance relation is single-valued (a function), reduces to $\tilde{O}(T^{2(\sqrt{2}-1)})$; in the absence of a relevance relation, the best known contextual bandit algorithms achieve regret $\tilde{O}(T^{(D+1)/(D+2)})$, where $D$ is the full dimension of the context vector.


Distributed Robust Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a framework for distributed robust statistical learning on {\em big contaminated data}. The Distributed Robust Learning (DRL) framework can reduce the computational time of traditional robust learning methods by several orders of magnitude. We analyze the robustness property of DRL, showing that DRL not only preserves the robustness of the base robust learning method, but also tolerates contaminations on a constant fraction of results from computing nodes (node failures). More precisely, even in presence of the most adversarial outlier distribution over computing nodes, DRL still achieves a breakdown point of at least $ \lambda^*/2 $, where $ \lambda^* $ is the break down point of corresponding centralized algorithm. This is in stark contrast with naive division-and-averaging implementation, which may reduce the breakdown point by a factor of $ k $ when $ k $ computing nodes are used. We then specialize the DRL framework for two concrete cases: distributed robust principal component analysis and distributed robust regression. We demonstrate the efficiency and the robustness advantages of DRL through comprehensive simulations and predicting image tags on a large-scale image set.


Massively Multitask Networks for Drug Discovery

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Massively multitask neural architectures provide a learning framework for drug discovery that synthesizes information from many distinct biological sources. To train these architectures at scale, we gather large amounts of data from public sources to create a dataset of nearly 40 million measurements across more than 200 biological targets. We investigate several aspects of the multitask framework by performing a series of empirical studies and obtain some interesting results: (1) massively multitask networks obtain predictive accuracies significantly better than single-task methods, (2) the predictive power of multitask networks improves as additional tasks and data are added, (3) the total amount of data and the total number of tasks both contribute significantly to multitask improvement, and (4) multitask networks afford limited transferability to tasks not in the training set. Our results underscore the need for greater data sharing and further algorithmic innovation to accelerate the drug discovery process.


Distributed Estimation of Generalized Matrix Rank: Efficient Algorithms and Lower Bounds

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the following generalized matrix rank estimation problem: given an $n \times n$ matrix and a constant $c \geq 0$, estimate the number of eigenvalues that are greater than $c$. In the distributed setting, the matrix of interest is the sum of $m$ matrices held by separate machines. We show that any deterministic algorithm solving this problem must communicate $\Omega(n^2)$ bits, which is order-equivalent to transmitting the whole matrix. In contrast, we propose a randomized algorithm that communicates only $\widetilde O(n)$ bits. The upper bound is matched by an $\Omega(n)$ lower bound on the randomized communication complexity. We demonstrate the practical effectiveness of the proposed algorithm with some numerical experiments.