Apple personal virtual assistant, Siri, might soon be competing for your time with Cortana, its counterpart from Microsoft. Cortana will be coming to iOS and Android at some point after Windows 10 rolls out with an updated version of Microsoft's virtual assistant software, Reuters reported Friday, citing people who claim to have knowledge of the software giant's plans. It would be a standalone app, available in the Google Play marketplace and Apple App Store, and work just as it already does on Windows Phone, according to the report. Microsoft also is working toward a more advanced version of Cortana, drawing from a research project called Einstein. "This kind of technology, which can read and understand email, will play a central role in the next rollout of Cortana, which we are working on now for the fall time frame," Eric Horvitz, Microsoft Research managing director, told Reuters in an interview. The company has already incorporated Cortana into its Windows 10 operating system, which will be coming to PCs in the latter part of this year.

We obtain the conditions for the emergence of the swarm intelligence effect in an interactive game of restless multi-armed bandit (rMAB). A player competes with multiple agents. Each bandit has a payoff that changes with a probability $p_{c}$ per round. The agents and player choose one of three options: (1) Exploit (a good bandit), (2) Innovate (asocial learning for a good bandit among $n_{I}$ randomly chosen bandits), and (3) Observe (social learning for a good bandit). Each agent has two parameters $(c,p_{obs})$ to specify the decision: (i) $c$, the threshold value for Exploit, and (ii) $p_{obs}$, the probability for Observe in learning. The parameters $(c,p_{obs})$ are uniformly distributed. We determine the optimal strategies for the player using complete knowledge about the rMAB. We show whether or not social or asocial learning is more optimal in the $(p_{c},n_{I})$ space and define the swarm intelligence effect. We conduct a laboratory experiment (67 subjects) and observe the swarm intelligence effect only if $(p_{c},n_{I})$ are chosen so that social learning is far more optimal than asocial learning.

Investors in Sirius XM Holdings Inc (NASD: SIRI) saw new options become available today, for the May 1st expiration. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the SIRI options chain for the new May 1st contracts and identified the following call contract of particular interest. The call contract at the $4.00 strike price has a current bid of 6 cents. If an investor was to purchase shares of SIRI stock at the current price level of $3.90/share, and then sell-to-open that call contract as a "covered call," they are committing to sell the stock at $4.00. Considering the call seller will also collect the premium, that would drive a total return (excluding dividends, if any) of 4.10% if the stock gets called away at the May 1st expiration (before broker commissions).

The joint problem of time segmentation and recognition of sequential data into meaningful subsequences has attracted significant research in a variety of domains. The ability to automatically segment and classify data is a core technology for applications like speaker diarisation, finance, activity understanding, multimedia annotation and human-computer interaction. To date, the main proposed solutions have included sliding windows [1], the hidden Markov model (HMM) [2], conditional random fields [3] [4], and structural SVM [5], covering the spectrum of generative, discriminative and maximum-margin dynamic classifiers. Along with advancements in learning and inference, research has witnessed increasingly realistic datasets which are bridging the gap between lab and real applications [6] [7]. Nevertheless, important challenges such as model adaptation and dynamic class sets remain unresolved. We address both these limitations by an adaptive online model that can accommodate an unlimited (theoretically infinite) number of classes. In a nutshell, this is achieved by applying a Bayesian nonparametric model, the hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP), as the prior for a hidden Markov model (a model known as HDP-HMM [8] [9]), and exploiting an adaptive learning rate for model adaptation. The proposed model provides an adaptive online learning approach for joint segmentation and recognition of sequential data 1 with incremental class sets and we refer to it as ADON HDP-HMM in the following.

We study how well one can recover sparse principal components of a data matrix using a sketch formed from a few of its elements. We show that for a wide class of optimization problems, if the sketch is close (in the spectral norm) to the original data matrix, then one can recover a near optimal solution to the optimization problem by using the sketch. In particular, we use this approach to obtain sparse principal components and show that for \math{m} data points in \math{n} dimensions, \math{O(\epsilon^{-2}\tilde k\max\{m,n\})} elements gives an \math{\epsilon}-additive approximation to the sparse PCA problem (\math{\tilde k} is the stable rank of the data matrix). We demonstrate our algorithms extensively on image, text, biological and financial data. The results show that not only are we able to recover the sparse PCAs from the incomplete data, but by using our sparse sketch, the running time drops by a factor of five or more.

Graph matching is an increasingly important problem in inferential graph statistics, with applications across a broad spectrum of fields including computer vision ([38], [10]), shape matching and object recognition ([4], [7]), and biology and neuroscience ([22], [34], [37]), to name a few. The graph matching problem (GMP) seeks to find an alignment between the vertex sets of two graphs that best preserves common structure across graphs. Unfortunately, the GMP is inherently combinatorial, and no efficient exact graph matching algorithms are known. Indeed, even the simpler problem of determining if two graphs are isomorphic is famously of unknown complexity ([19], 1 [30]), and if the graphs are allowed to be loopy, weighted and directed, then the simplest version of GMP is equivalent to the NPhard quadratic assignment problem. Due to its wide applicability, there exist a vast number of approximating algorithms for GMP; see the paper "30 Years of Graph Matching in Pattern Recognition" ([11]) for an excellent survey of the existing literature.

ABSTRACT Several efforts to predict student failure rate (SFR) at school accurately still remains a core problem area faced by many in the educational sector. The procedure for forecasting SFR are rigid and most often times require data scaling or conversion into binary form such as is the case of the logistic model which may lead to lose of information and effect size attenuation. Currently the application of Genetic Programming (GP) holds great promises and has produced tremendous positive results in different sectors. In this regard, this study developed GPSFARPS, a software application to provide a robust solution to the prediction of SFR using an evolutionary algorithm known as multi-gene genetic programming. The approach is validated by feeding a testing data set to the evolved GP models. Result obtained from GPSFARPS simulations show its unique ability to evolve a suitable failure rate expression with a fast convergence at 30 generations from a maximum specified generation of 500. The multigene system was also able to minimize the evolved model expression and accurately predict student failure rate using a subset of the original expression. Keywords: Genetic Programming, Student Failure Rate, Multi-Gene GP 1. INTRODUCTION SFR has always being and will continue to be a major concern to stakeholders in the educational sector.

Geotagged data can be used to describe regions in the world and discover local themes. However, not all data produced within a region is necessarily specifically descriptive of that area. To surface the content that is characteristic for a region, we present the geographical hierarchy model (GHM), a probabilistic model based on the assumption that data observed in a region is a random mixture of content that pertains to different levels of a hierarchy. We apply the GHM to a dataset of 8 million Flickr photos in order to discriminate between content (i.e., tags) that specifically characterizes a region (e.g., neighborhood) and content that characterizes surrounding areas or more general themes. Knowledge of the discriminative and non-discriminative terms used throughout the hierarchy enables us to quantify the uniqueness of a given region and to compare similar but distant regions. Our evaluation demonstrates that our model improves upon traditional Naive Bayes classification by 47% and hierarchical TF-IDF by 27%. We further highlight the differences and commonalities with human reasoning about what is locally characteristic for a neighborhood, distilled from ten interviews and a survey that covered themes such as time, events, and prior regional knowledge.

A popular tool for unsupervised modelling and mining multi-aspect data is tensor decomposition. In an exploratory setting, where and no labels or ground truth are available how can we automatically decide how many components to extract? How can we assess the quality of our results, so that a domain expert can factor this quality measure in the interpretation of our results? In this paper, we introduce AutoTen, a novel automatic unsupervised tensor mining algorithm with minimal user intervention, which leverages and improves upon heuristics that assess the result quality. We extensively evaluate AutoTen's performance on synthetic data, outperforming existing baselines on this very hard problem. Finally, we apply AutoTen on a variety of real datasets, providing insights and discoveries. We view this work as a step towards a fully automated, unsupervised tensor mining tool that can be easily adopted by practitioners in academia and industry.

We propose a graphical model for representing networks of stochastic processes, the minimal generative model graph. It is based on reduced factorizations of the joint distribution over time. We show that under appropriate conditions, it is unique and consistent with another type of graphical model, the directed information graph, which is based on a generalization of Granger causality. We demonstrate how directed information quantifies Granger causality in a particular sequential prediction setting. We also develop efficient methods to estimate the topological structure from data that obviate estimating the joint statistics. One algorithm assumes upper-bounds on the degrees and uses the minimal dimension statistics necessary. In the event that the upper-bounds are not valid, the resulting graph is nonetheless an optimal approximation. Another algorithm uses near-minimal dimension statistics when no bounds are known but the distribution satisfies a certain criterion. Analogous to how structure learning algorithms for undirected graphical models use mutual information estimates, these algorithms use directed information estimates. We characterize the sample-complexity of two plug-in directed information estimators and obtain confidence intervals. For the setting when point estimates are unreliable, we propose an algorithm that uses confidence intervals to identify the best approximation that is robust to estimation error. Lastly, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms through analysis of both synthetic data and real data from the Twitter network. In the latter case, we identify which news sources influence users in the network by merely analyzing tweet times.