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Optimal Decision-Theoretic Classification Using Non-Decomposable Performance Metrics
Natarajan, Nagarajan, Koyejo, Oluwasanmi, Ravikumar, Pradeep, Dhillon, Inderjit S.
In contrast, decomposable metrics such as accuracy evaluated on set of examples can be decomposed into a sum of per-example accuracies. Non-decomposability of a performance metric is often desirable as it enables a nonlinear tradeoff between the overall confusion matrix entries: true positives (TP), false positives (FP), true negatives (TN) and false negatives (FN). As a result, non-decomposable performance metrics remain popular for imbalanced and rare event classification in medical diagnosis, fraud detection, information retrieval applications [Lewis and Gale, 1994, Drummond and Holte, 2005, Gu et al., 2009, He and Garcia, 2009], and in other problems where the practitioner is interested in measuring tradeoffs beyond standard classification accuracy. A recent flurry of theoretical results and practical algorithms highlights a growing interest in understanding and optimizing non-decomposable metrics [Dembczynski et al., 2011, Ye et al., 2012, Koyejo et al., 2014, Narasimhan et al., 2014]. Existing theoretical analysis has focused on two distinct approaches for characterizing the population version of the non-decomposable metrics: identified by Ye et al. [2012] as decision theoretic analysis (DTA) and empirical utility maximization (EUM). DTA population utilities measure the expected gain of a classifier on a fixed-size test set, while EUM population utilities are a function 1 of the population confusion matrix. In other words, DTA population utilities measure the the average utility over an infinite set of test sets, each of a fixed size, while EUM population utilities evaluate the performance of a classifier over a single infinitely large test set. It has recently been shown that for EUM based population utilities, the optimal classifier for large classes of non-decomposable binary classification metrics is just the sign of the thresholded conditional probability of the positive class with a metric-dependent threshold [Koyejo et al., 2014, Narasimhan et al., 2014]. In addition, practical algorithms have been proposed for such EUM consistent classification based on direct optimization for the threshold on a held-out validation set.
Bayesian Optimization for Synthetic Gene Design
Gonzรกlez, Javier, Longworth, Joseph, James, David C., Lawrence, Neil D.
We address the problem of synthetic gene design using Bayesian optimization. The main issue when designing a gene is that the design space is defined in terms of long strings of characters of different lengths, which renders the optimization intractable. We propose a three-step approach to deal with this issue. First, we use a Gaussian process model to emulate the behavior of the cell. As inputs of the model, we use a set of biologically meaningful gene features, which allows us to define optimal gene designs rules. Based on the model outputs we define a multi-task acquisition function to optimize simultaneously severals aspects of interest. Finally, we define an evaluation function, which allow us to rank sets of candidate gene sequences that are coherent with the optimal design strategy. We illustrate the performance of this approach in a real gene design experiment with mammalian cells.
PRISM: Person Re-Identification via Structured Matching
Zhang, Ziming, Saligrama, Venkatesh
Person re-identification (re-id), an emerging problem in visual surveillance, deals with maintaining entities of individuals whilst they traverse various locations surveilled by a camera network. From a visual perspective re-id is challenging due to significant changes in visual appearance of individuals in cameras with different pose, illumination and calibration. Globally the challenge arises from the need to maintain structurally consistent matches among all the individual entities across different camera views. We propose PRISM, a structured matching method to jointly account for these challenges. We view the global problem as a weighted graph matching problem and estimate edge weights by learning to predict them based on the co-occurrences of visual patterns in the training examples. These co-occurrence based scores in turn account for appearance changes by inferring likely and unlikely visual co-occurrences appearing in training instances. We implement PRISM on single shot and multi-shot scenarios. PRISM uniformly outperforms state-of-the-art in terms of matching rate while being computationally efficient.
Contextual Analysis for Middle Eastern Languages with Hidden Markov Models
Displaying a document in Middle Eastern languages requires contextual analysis due to different presentational forms for each character of the alphabet. The words of the document will be formed by the joining of the correct positional glyphs representing corresponding presentational forms of the characters. A set of rules defines the joining of the glyphs. As usual, these rules vary from language to language and are subject to interpretation by the software developers. In this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for contextual analysis based on the first order Hidden Markov Model. We will design and build a model for the Farsi language to exhibit this technology. The Farsi model achieves 94 \% accuracy with the training based on a short list of 89 Farsi vocabularies consisting of 2780 Farsi characters. The experiment can be easily extended to many languages including Arabic, Urdu, and Sindhi. Furthermore, the advantage of this approach is that the same software can be used to perform contextual analysis without coding complex rules for each specific language. Of particular interest is that the languages with fewer speakers can have greater representation on the web, since they are typically ignored by software developers due to lack of financial incentives.
Estimation from Pairwise Comparisons: Sharp Minimax Bounds with Topology Dependence
Shah, Nihar B., Balakrishnan, Sivaraman, Bradley, Joseph, Parekh, Abhay, Ramchandran, Kannan, Wainwright, Martin J.
Data in the form of pairwise comparisons arises in many domains, including preference elicitation, sporting competitions, and peer grading among others. We consider parametric ordinal models for such pairwise comparison data involving a latent vector $w^* \in \mathbb{R}^d$ that represents the "qualities" of the $d$ items being compared; this class of models includes the two most widely used parametric models--the Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) and the Thurstone models. Working within a standard minimax framework, we provide tight upper and lower bounds on the optimal error in estimating the quality score vector $w^*$ under this class of models. The bounds depend on the topology of the comparison graph induced by the subset of pairs being compared via its Laplacian spectrum. Thus, in settings where the subset of pairs may be chosen, our results provide principled guidelines for making this choice. Finally, we compare these error rates to those under cardinal measurement models and show that the error rates in the ordinal and cardinal settings have identical scalings apart from constant pre-factors.
Graphical Potential Games
Potential games, originally introduced in the early 1990's by Lloyd Shapley, the 2012 Nobel Laureate in Economics, and his colleague Dov Monderer, are a very important class of models in game theory. They have special properties such as the existence of Nash equilibria in pure strategies. This note introduces graphical versions of potential games. Special cases of graphical potential games have already found applicability in many areas of science and engineering beyond economics, including artificial intelligence, computer vision, and machine learning. They have been effectively applied to the study and solution of important real-world problems such as routing and congestion in networks, distributed resource allocation (e.g., public goods), and relaxation-labeling for image segmentation. Implicit use of graphical potential games goes back at least 40 years. Several classes of games considered standard in the literature, including coordination games, local interaction games, lattice games, congestion games, and party-affiliation games, are instances of graphical potential games. This note provides several characterizations of graphical potential games by leveraging well-known results from the literature on probabilistic graphical models. A major contribution of the work presented here that particularly distinguishes it from previous work is establishing that the convergence of certain type of game-playing rules implies that the agents/players must be embedded in some graphical potential game.
Re-scale boosting for regression and classification
Lin, Shaobo, Wang, Yao, Xu, Lin
Boosting is a learning scheme that combines weak prediction rules to produce a strong composite estimator, with the underlying intuition that one can obtain accurate prediction rules by combining "rough" ones. Although boosting is proved to be consistent and overfitting-resistant, its numerical convergence rate is relatively slow. The aim of this paper is to develop a new boosting strategy, called the re-scale boosting (RBoosting), to accelerate the numerical convergence rate and, consequently, improve the learning performance of boosting. Our studies show that RBoosting possesses the almost optimal numerical convergence rate in the sense that, up to a logarithmic factor, it can reach the minimax nonlinear approximation rate. We then use RBoosting to tackle both the classification and regression problems, and deduce a tight generalization error estimate. The theoretical and experimental results show that RBoosting outperforms boosting in terms of generalization.
Cats & Co: Categorical Time Series Coclustering
Gay, Dominique, Guigourรจs, Romain, Boullรฉ, Marc, Clรฉrot, Fabrice
We suggest a novel method of clustering and exploratory analysis of temporal event sequences data (also known as categorical time series) based on three-dimensional data grid models. A data set of temporal event sequences can be represented as a data set of three-dimensional points, each point is defined by three variables: a sequence identifier, a time value and an event value. Instantiating data grid models to the 3D-points turns the problem into 3D-coclustering. The sequences are partitioned into clusters, the time variable is discretized into intervals and the events are partitioned into clusters. The cross-product of the univariate partitions forms a multivariate partition of the representation space, i.e., a grid of cells and it also represents a nonparametric estimator of the joint distribution of the sequences, time and events dimensions. Thus, the sequences are grouped together because they have similar joint distribution of time and events, i.e., similar distribution of events along the time dimension. The best data grid is computed using a parameter-free Bayesian model selection approach. We also suggest several criteria for exploiting the resulting grid through agglomerative hierarchies, for interpreting the clusters of sequences and characterizing their components through insightful visualizations. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate that data grid models are efficient, effective and discover meaningful underlying patterns of categorical time series data.
Information Gathering in Networks via Active Exploration
Singla, Adish, Horvitz, Eric, Kohli, Pushmeet, White, Ryen, Krause, Andreas
How should we gather information in a network, where each node's visibility is limited to its local neighborhood? This problem arises in numerous real-world applications, such as surveying and task routing in social networks, team formation in collaborative networks and experimental design with dependency constraints. Often the informativeness of a set of nodes can be quantified via a submodular utility function. Existing approaches for submodular optimization, however, require that the set of all nodes that can be selected is known ahead of time, which is often unrealistic. In contrast, we propose a novel model where we start our exploration from an initial node, and new nodes become visible and available for selection only once one of their neighbors has been chosen. We then present a general algorithm NetExp for this problem, and provide theoretical bounds on its performance dependent on structural properties of the underlying network. We evaluate our methodology on various simulated problem instances as well as on data collected from social question answering system deployed within a large enterprise.
Trees Assembling Mann Whitney Approach for Detecting Genome-wide Joint Association among Low Marginal Effect loci
Wei, Changshuai, Schaid, Daniel J., Lu, Qing
Common complex diseases are likely influenced by the interplay of hundreds, or even thousands, of genetic variants. Converging evidence shows that genetic variants with low marginal effects (LME) play an important role in disease development. Despite their potential significance, discovering LME genetic variants and assessing their joint association on high dimensional data (e.g., genome wide association studies) remain a great challenge. To facilitate joint association analysis among a large ensemble of LME genetic variants, we proposed a computationally efficient and powerful approach, which we call Trees Assembling Mann whitney (TAMW). Through simulation studies and an empirical data application, we found that TAMW outperformed multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) and the likelihood ratio based Mann whitney approach (LRMW) when the underlying complex disease involves multiple LME loci and their interactions. For instance, in a simulation with 20 interacting LME loci, TAMW attained a higher power (power=0.931) than both MDR (power=0.599) and LRMW (power=0.704). In an empirical study of 29 known Crohn's disease (CD) loci, TAMW also identified a stronger joint association with CD than those detected by MDR and LRMW. Finally, we applied TAMW to Wellcome Trust CD GWAS to conduct a genome wide analysis. The analysis of 459K single nucleotide polymorphisms was completed in 40 hours using parallel computing, and revealed a joint association predisposing to CD (p-value=2.763e-19). Further analysis of the newly discovered association suggested that 13 genes, such as ATG16L1 and LACC1, may play an important role in CD pathophysiological and etiological processes.