The false discovery rate (FDR)---the expected fraction of spurious discoveries among all the discoveries---provides a popular statistical assessment of the reproducibility of scientific studies in various disciplines. In this work, we introduce a new method for controlling the FDR in meta-analysis of many decentralized linear models. Our method targets the scenario where many research groups---possibly the number of which is random---are independently testing a common set of hypotheses and then sending summary statistics to a coordinating center in an online manner. Built on the knockoffs framework introduced by Barber and Candes (2015), our procedure starts by applying the knockoff filter to each linear model and then aggregates the summary statistics via one-shot communication in a novel way. This method gives exact FDR control non-asymptotically without any knowledge of the noise variances or making any assumption about sparsity of the signal. In certain settings, it has a communication complexity that is optimal up to a logarithmic factor.

The quality of high-level AI of non-player characters (NPCs) in commercial open-world games (OWGs) has been increasing during the past years. However, due to constraints specific to the game industry, this increase has been slow and it has been driven by larger budgets rather than adoption of new complex AI techniques. Most of the contemporary AI is still expressed as hard-coded scripts. The complexity and manageability of the script codebase is one of the key limiting factors for further AI improvements. In this paper we address this issue. We present behavior objects - a general approach to development of NPC behaviors for large OWGs. Behavior objects are inspired by object-oriented programming and extend the concept of smart objects. Our approach promotes encapsulation of data and code for multiple related behaviors in one place, hiding internal details and embedding intelligence in the environment. Behavior objects are a natural abstraction of five different techniques that we have implemented to manage AI complexity in an upcoming AAA OWG. We report the details of the implementations in the context of behavior trees and the lessons learned during development. Our work should serve as inspiration for AI architecture designers from both the academia and the industry.

We consider the scenario where the parameters of a probabilistic model are expected to vary over time. We construct a novel prior distribution that promotes sparsity and adapts the strength of correlation between parameters at successive timesteps, based on the data. We derive approximate variational inference procedures for learning and prediction with this prior. We test the approach on two tasks: forecasting financial quantities from relevant text, and modeling language contingent on time-varying financial measurements.

We prove non-asymptotic lower bounds on the expectation of the maximum of $d$ independent Gaussian variables and the expectation of the maximum of $d$ independent symmetric random walks. Both lower bounds recover the optimal leading constant in the limit. A simple application of the lower bound for random walks is an (asymptotically optimal) non-asymptotic lower bound on the minimax regret of online learning with expert advice.

We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities, e.g., for applications involving bandits or active learning. One simple approach to this is to use online Monte Carlo methods, such as SGLD (stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics). Unfortunately, such a method needs to store many copies of the parameters (which wastes memory), and needs to make predictions using many versions of the model (which wastes time). We describe a method for "distilling" a Monte Carlo approximation to the posterior predictive density into a more compact form, namely a single deep neural network. We compare to two very recent approaches to Bayesian neural networks, namely an approach based on expectation propagation [Hernandez-Lobato and Adams, 2015] and an approach based on variational Bayes [Blundell et al., 2015]. Our method performs better than both of these, is much simpler to implement, and uses less computation at test time.

A fundamental goal in neuroscience is to understand how information is represented, stored and modified in cortical networks. New experimental methods in neuroscience not only enable chronic, minimally invasive, recordings of large populations of neurons with cellular level resolution, but also allow recordings from identified neuronal subtypes [1]. The ability to acquire complex large-scale detailed behavioral and neuronal datasets calls for the development of advanced data analysis tools, as commonly used techniques do not suffice to capture the spatiotemporal network complexity. Such a framework should deal effectively with the challenging characteristics of neuronal and behavioral data, namely connectivity structures between neurons and dynamic patterns at multiple timescales. Due to natural and physical constraints, the accessible highdimensional data often exhibit geometric structures and lie on a low-dimensional manifold. Manifold learning is a class of data driven methods; these methods aim to find meaningful geometry-based nonlinear representations that parametrize the manifold underlying the data [2]-[6]. Only very recently have we begun to witness seeds of its applicability to real biological data, and, in particular, to neuroscience (e.g., [7], [8]).

We aim to produce predictive models that are not only accurate, but are also interpretable to human experts. Our models are decision lists, which consist of a series of if...then... statements (e.g., if high blood pressure, then stroke) that discretize a high-dimensional, multivariate feature space into a series of simple, readily interpretable decision statements. We introduce a generative model called Bayesian Rule Lists that yields a posterior distribution over possible decision lists. It employs a novel prior structure to encourage sparsity. Our experiments show that Bayesian Rule Lists has predictive accuracy on par with the current top algorithms for prediction in machine learning. Our method is motivated by recent developments in personalized medicine, and can be used to produce highly accurate and interpretable medical scoring systems. We demonstrate this by producing an alternative to the CHADS$_2$ score, actively used in clinical practice for estimating the risk of stroke in patients that have atrial fibrillation. Our model is as interpretable as CHADS$_2$, but more accurate.

In this paper we consider the dictionary learning problem for sparse representation. We first show that this problem is NP-hard by polynomial time reduction of the densest cut problem. Then, using successive convex approximation strategies, we propose efficient dictionary learning schemes to solve several practical formulations of this problem to stationary points. Unlike many existing algorithms in the literature, such as K-SVD, our proposed dictionary learning scheme is theoretically guaranteed to converge to the set of stationary points under certain mild assumptions. For the image denoising application, the performance and the efficiency of the proposed dictionary learning scheme are comparable to that of K-SVD algorithm in simulation.

We present and analyze several strategies for improving the performance of stochastic variance-reduced gradient (SVRG) methods. We first show that the convergence rate of these methods can be preserved under a decreasing sequence of errors in the control variate, and use this to derive variants of SVRG that use growing-batch strategies to reduce the number of gradient calculations required in the early iterations. We further (i) show how to exploit support vectors to reduce the number of gradient computations in the later iterations, (ii) prove that the commonly-used regularized SVRG iteration is justified and improves the convergence rate, (iii) consider alternate mini-batch selection strategies, and (iv) consider the generalization error of the method.

In life sciences, the experts generally use empirical knowledge to recode variables, choose interactions and perform selection by classical approach. The aim of this work is to perform automatic learning algorithm for variables selection which can lead to know if experts can be help in they decision or simply replaced by the machine and improve they knowledge and results. The Lasso method can detect the optimal subset of variables for estimation and prediction under some conditions. In this paper, we propose a novel approach which uses automatically all variables available and all interactions. By a double cross-validation combine with Lasso, we select a best subset of variables and with GLM through a simple cross-validation perform predictions. The algorithm assures the stability and the the consistency of estimators.