Shrinkage algorithms are of great importance in almost every area of statistics due to the increasing impact of big data. Especially time series analysis benefits from efficient and rapid estimation techniques such as the lasso. However, currently lasso type estimators for autoregressive time series models still focus on models with homoscedastic residuals. Therefore, an iteratively reweighted adaptive lasso algorithm for the estimation of time series models under conditional heteroscedasticity is presented in a high-dimensional setting. The asymptotic behaviour of the resulting estimator is analysed. It is found that the proposed estimation procedure performs substantially better than its homoscedastic counterpart. A special case of the algorithm is suitable to compute the estimated multivariate AR-ARCH type models efficiently. Extensions to the model like periodic AR-ARCH, threshold AR-ARCH or ARMA-GARCH are discussed. Finally, different simulation results and applications to electricity market data and returns of metal prices are shown.

Approximate inference in high-dimensional, discrete probabilistic models is a central problem in computational statistics and machine learning. This paper describes discrete particle variational inference (DPVI), a new approach that combines key strengths of Monte Carlo, variational and search-based techniques. DPVI is based on a novel family of particle-based variational approximations that can be fit using simple, fast, deterministic search techniques. Like Monte Carlo, DPVI can handle multiple modes, and yields exact results in a well-defined limit. Like unstructured mean-field, DPVI is based on optimizing a lower bound on the partition function; when this quantity is not of intrinsic interest, it facilitates convergence assessment and debugging. Like both Monte Carlo and combinatorial search, DPVI can take advantage of factorization, sequential structure, and custom search operators. This paper defines DPVI particle-based approximation family and partition function lower bounds, along with the sequential DPVI and local DPVI algorithm templates for optimizing them. DPVI is illustrated and evaluated via experiments on lattice Markov Random Fields, nonparametric Bayesian mixtures and block-models, and parametric as well as non-parametric hidden Markov models. Results include applications to real-world spike-sorting and relational modeling problems, and show that DPVI can offer appealing time/accuracy trade-offs as compared to multiple alternatives.

Many statistical methods for network data parameterize the edge-probability by attributing latent traits to the vertices such as block structure and assume exchangeability in the sense of the Aldous-Hoover representation theorem. Empirical studies of networks indicate that many real-world networks have a power-law distribution of the vertices which in turn implies the number of edges scale slower than quadratically in the number of vertices. These assumptions are fundamentally irreconcilable as the Aldous-Hoover theorem implies quadratic scaling of the number of edges. Recently Caron and Fox (2014) proposed the use of a different notion of exchangeability due to Kallenberg (2009) and obtained a network model which admits power-law behaviour while retaining desirable statistical properties, however this model does not capture latent vertex traits such as block-structure. In this work we re-introduce the use of block-structure for network models obeying Kallenberg's notion of exchangeability and thereby obtain a model which admits the inference of block-structure and edge inhomogeneity. We derive a simple expression for the likelihood and an efficient sampling method. The obtained model is not significantly more difficult to implement than existing approaches to block-modelling and performs well on real network datasets.

There is a widespread need for statistical methods that can analyze high-dimensional datasets with- out imposing restrictive or opaque modeling assumptions. This paper describes a domain-general data analysis method called CrossCat. CrossCat infers multiple non-overlapping views of the data, each consisting of a subset of the variables, and uses a separate nonparametric mixture to model each view. CrossCat is based on approximately Bayesian inference in a hierarchical, nonparamet- ric model for data tables. This model consists of a Dirichlet process mixture over the columns of a data table in which each mixture component is itself an independent Dirichlet process mixture over the rows; the inner mixture components are simple parametric models whose form depends on the types of data in the table. CrossCat combines strengths of mixture modeling and Bayesian net- work structure learning. Like mixture modeling, CrossCat can model a broad class of distributions by positing latent variables, and produces representations that can be efficiently conditioned and sampled from for prediction. Like Bayesian networks, CrossCat represents the dependencies and independencies between variables, and thus remains accurate when there are multiple statistical signals. Inference is done via a scalable Gibbs sampling scheme; this paper shows that it works well in practice. This paper also includes empirical results on heterogeneous tabular data of up to 10 million cells, such as hospital cost and quality measures, voting records, unemployment rates, gene expression measurements, and images of handwritten digits. CrossCat infers structure that is consistent with accepted findings and common-sense knowledge in multiple domains and yields predictive accuracy competitive with generative, discriminative, and model-free alternatives.

Neural language models are a powerful tool to embed words into semantic vector spaces. However, learning such models generally relies on the availability of abundant and diverse training examples. In highly specialised domains this requirement may not be met due to difficulties in obtaining a large corpus, or the limited range of expression in average use. Such domains may encode prior knowledge about entities in a knowledge base or ontology. We propose a generative model which integrates evidence from diverse data sources, enabling the sharing of semantic information. We achieve this by generalising the concept of co-occurrence from distributional semantics to include other relationships between entities or words, which we model as affine transformations on the embedding space. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by outperforming recent models on a link prediction task and demonstrating its ability to profit from partially or fully unobserved data training labels. We further demonstrate the usefulness of learning from different data sources with overlapping vocabularies.

Screening rules allow to early discard irrelevant variables from the optimization in Lasso problems, or its derivatives, making solvers faster. In this paper, we propose new versions of the so-called $\textit{safe rules}$ for the Lasso. Based on duality gap considerations, our new rules create safe test regions whose diameters converge to zero, provided that one relies on a converging solver. This property helps screening out more variables, for a wider range of regularization parameter values. In addition to faster convergence, we prove that we correctly identify the active sets (supports) of the solutions in finite time. While our proposed strategy can cope with any solver, its performance is demonstrated using a coordinate descent algorithm particularly adapted to machine learning use cases. Significant computing time reductions are obtained with respect to previous safe rules.

Low-rank modeling has a lot of important applications in machine learning, computer vision and social network analysis. While the matrix rank is often approximated by the convex nuclear norm, the use of nonconvex low-rank regularizers has demonstrated better recovery performance. However, the resultant optimization problem is much more challenging. A very recent state-of-the-art is based on the proximal gradient algorithm. However, it requires an expensive full SVD in each proximal step. In this paper, we show that for many commonly-used nonconvex low-rank regularizers, a cutoff can be derived to automatically threshold the singular values obtained from the proximal operator. This allows the use of power method to approximate the SVD efficiently. Besides, the proximal operator can be reduced to that of a much smaller matrix projected onto this leading subspace. Convergence, with a rate of O(1/T) where T is the number of iterations, can be guaranteed. Extensive experiments are performed on matrix completion and robust principal component analysis. The proposed method achieves significant speedup over the state-of-the-art. Moreover, the matrix solution obtained is more accurate and has a lower rank than that of the traditional nuclear norm regularizer.

The widely used genetic pleiotropic analysis of multiple phenotypes are often designed for examining the relationship between common variants and a few phenotypes. They are not suited for both high dimensional phenotypes and high dimensional genotype (next-generation sequencing) data. To overcome these limitations, we develop sparse structural equation models (SEMs) as a general framework for a new paradigm of genetic analysis of multiple phenotypes. To incorporate both common and rare variants into the analysis, we extend the traditional multivariate SEMs to sparse functional SEMs. To deal with high dimensional phenotype and genotype data, we employ functional data analysis and the alternative direction methods of multiplier (ADMM) techniques to reduce data dimension and improve computational efficiency. Using large scale simulations we showed that the proposed methods have higher power to detect true causal genetic pleiotropic structure than other existing methods. Simulations also demonstrate that the gene-based pleiotropic analysis has higher power than the single variant-based pleiotropic analysis. The proposed method is applied to exome sequence data from the NHLBI Exome Sequencing Project (ESP) with 11 phenotypes, which identifies a network with 137 genes connected to 11 phenotypes and 341 edges. Among them, 114 genes showed pleiotropic genetic effects and 45 genes were reported to be associated with phenotypes in the analysis or other cardiovascular disease (CVD) related phenotypes in the literature.

Indoor localization is a supporting technology for a broadening range of pervasive wireless applications. One promis- ing approach is to locate users with radio frequency fingerprints. However, its wide adoption in real-world systems is challenged by the time- and manpower-consuming site survey process, which builds a fingerprint database a priori for localization. To address this problem, we visualize the 3-D RF fingerprint data as a function of locations (x-y) and indices of access points (fingerprint), as a tensor and use tensor algebraic methods for an adaptive tubal-sampling of this fingerprint space. In particular using a recently proposed tensor algebraic framework in [1] we capture the complexity of the fingerprint space as a low-dimensional tensor-column space. In this formulation the proposed scheme exploits adaptivity to identify reference points which are highly informative for learning this low-dimensional space. Further, under certain incoherency conditions we prove that the proposed scheme achieves bounded recovery error and near-optimal sampling complexity. In contrast to several existing work that rely on random sampling, this paper shows that adaptivity in sampling can lead to significant improvements in localization accuracy. The approach is validated on both data generated by the ray-tracing indoor model which accounts for the floor plan and the impact of walls and the real world data. Simulation results show that, while maintaining the same localization accuracy of existing approaches, the amount of samples can be cut down by 71% for the high SNR case and 55% for the low SNR case.

Biclustering structures in data matrices were first formalized in a seminal paper by John Hartigan (1972) where one seeks to cluster cases and variables simultaneously. Such structures are also prevalent in block modeling of networks. In this paper, we develop a unified theory for the estimation and completion of matrices with biclustering structures, where the data is a partially observed and noise contaminated data matrix with a certain biclustering structure. In particular, we show that a constrained least squares estimator achieves minimax rate-optimal performance in several of the most important scenarios. To this end, we derive unified high probability upper bounds for all sub-Gaussian data and also provide matching minimax lower bounds in both Gaussian and binary cases. Due to the close connection of graphon to stochastic block models, an immediate consequence of our general results is a minimax rate-optimal estimator for sparse graphons.