This paper discusses real-time alignment of audio signals of music performance to the corresponding score (a.k.a. score following) which can handle tempo changes, errors and arbitrary repeats and/or skips (repeats/skips) in performances. This type of score following is particularly useful in automatic accompaniment for practices and rehearsals, where errors and repeats/skips are often made. Simple extensions of the algorithms previously proposed in the literature are not applicable in these situations for scores of practical length due to the problem of large computational complexity. To cope with this problem, we present two hidden Markov models of monophonic performance with errors and arbitrary repeats/skips, and derive efficient score-following algorithms with an assumption that the prior probability distributions of score positions before and after repeats/skips are independent from each other. We confirmed real-time operation of the algorithms with music scores of practical length (around 10000 notes) on a modern laptop and their tracking ability to the input performance within 0.7 s on average after repeats/skips in clarinet performance data. Further improvements and extension for polyphonic signals are also discussed.

With recent advancement in data collection and storage, we have large amounts of information at our disposal, especially with respect to the number of explanatory variables or'features'. When these features contain redundant or noisy information, estimating the functional connection between the response and these features can become quite challenging, and that often hampers the quality of learning. One way to overcome this is by finding a smaller set of features or explanatory variables that can perform the learning task sufficiently well. In this paper, we discuss feature elimination in statistical learning with kernel machines. Kernel machines (KM) are a class of learning methods for pattern analysis and regression, under transformations of the input feature space, of which the linear support vector machine (SVM) is the simplest case. In general, the term'kernel machine' is reserved for the more general version of the SVM problem with nonlinear transformation of the feature space. The popularity of these algorithms is motivated by the fact that these are easyto-compute techniques that enable estimation under weak or no assumptions on the distribution [see Steinwart and Chirstmann, 2008].

Nowadays, hospitals are ubiquitous and integral to modern society. Patients flow in and out of a veritable whirlwind of paperwork, consultations, and potential inpatient admissions, through an abstracted system that is not without flaws. One of the biggest flaws in the medical system is perhaps an unexpected one: the patient alarm system. One longitudinal study reported an 88.8% rate of false alarms, with other studies reporting numbers of similar magnitudes. These false alarm rates lead to a number of deleterious effects that manifest in a significantly lower standard of care across clinics. This paper discusses a model-based probabilistic inference approach to identifying variables at a detection level. We design a generative model that complies with an overview of human physiology and perform approximate Bayesian inference. One primary goal of this paper is to justify a Bayesian modeling approach to increasing robustness in a physiological domain. We use three data sets provided by Physionet, a research resource for complex physiological signals, in the form of the Physionet 2014 Challenge set-p1 and set-p2, as well as the MGH/MF Waveform Database. On the extended data set our algorithm is on par with the other top six submissions to the Physionet 2014 challenge.

We consider forecasting a single time series when there is a large number of predictors and a possible nonlinear effect. The dimensionality was first reduced via a high-dimensional (approximate) factor model implemented by the principal component analysis. Using the extracted factors, we develop a novel forecasting method called the sufficient forecasting, which provides a set of sufficient predictive indices, inferred from high-dimensional predictors, to deliver additional predictive power. The projected principal component analysis will be employed to enhance the accuracy of inferred factors when a semi-parametric (approximate) factor model is assumed. Our method is also applicable to cross-sectional sufficient regression using extracted factors. The connection between the sufficient forecasting and the deep learning architecture is explicitly stated. The sufficient forecasting correctly estimates projection indices of the underlying factors even in the presence of a nonparametric forecasting function. The proposed method extends the sufficient dimension reduction to high-dimensional regimes by condensing the cross-sectional information through factor models. We derive asymptotic properties for the estimate of the central subspace spanned by these projection directions as well as the estimates of the sufficient predictive indices. We further show that the natural method of running multiple regression of target on estimated factors yields a linear estimate that actually falls into this central subspace. Our method and theory allow the number of predictors to be larger than the number of observations. We finally demonstrate that the sufficient forecasting improves upon the linear forecasting in both simulation studies and an empirical study of forecasting macroeconomic variables.

We survey concepts at the frontier of research connecting artificial, animal and human cognition to computation and information processing---from the Turing test to Searle's Chinese Room argument, from Integrated Information Theory to computational and algorithmic complexity. We start by arguing that passing the Turing test is a trivial computational problem and that its pragmatic difficulty sheds light on the computational nature of the human mind more than it does on the challenge of artificial intelligence. We then review our proposed algorithmic information-theoretic measures for quantifying and characterizing cognition in various forms. These are capable of accounting for known biases in human behavior, thus vindicating a computational algorithmic view of cognition as first suggested by Turing, but this time rooted in the concept of algorithmic probability, which in turn is based on computational universality while being independent of computational model, and which has the virtue of being predictive and testable as a model theory of cognitive behavior.

This paper defines adversarial reasoning as computational approaches to inferring and anticipating an enemy's perceptions, intents and actions. It argues that adversarial reasoning transcends the boundaries of game theory and must also leverage such disciplines as cognitive modeling, control theory, AI planning and others. To illustrate the challenges of applying adversarial reasoning to real-world problems, the paper explores the lessons learned in the CADET -- a battle planning system that focuses on brigade-level ground operations and involves adversarial reasoning. From this example of current capabilities, the paper proceeds to describe RAID -- a DARPA program that aims to build capabilities in adversarial reasoning, and how such capabilities would address practical requirements in Defense and other application areas.

We present a domain-general account of causation that applies to settings in which macro-level causal relations between two systems are of interest, but the relevant causal features are poorly understood and have to be aggregated from vast arrays of micro-measurements. Our approach generalizes that of Chalupka et al. (2015) to the setting in which the macro-level effect is not specified. We formalize the connection between micro- and macro-variables in such situations and provide a coherent framework describing causal relations at multiple levels of analysis. We present an algorithm that discovers macro-variable causes and effects from micro-level measurements obtained from an experiment. We further show how to design experiments to discover macro-variables from observational micro-variable data. Finally, we show that under specific conditions, one can identify multiple levels of causal structure. Throughout the article, we use a simulated neuroscience multi-unit recording experiment to illustrate the ideas and the algorithms.

A widely applied approach to causal inference from a non-experimental time series $X$, often referred to as "(linear) Granger causal analysis", is to regress present on past and interpret the regression matrix $\hat{B}$ causally. However, if there is an unmeasured time series $Z$ that influences $X$, then this approach can lead to wrong causal conclusions, i.e., distinct from those one would draw if one had additional information such as $Z$. In this paper we take a different approach: We assume that $X$ together with some hidden $Z$ forms a first order vector autoregressive (VAR) process with transition matrix $A$, and argue why it is more valid to interpret $A$ causally instead of $\hat{B}$. Then we examine under which conditions the most important parts of $A$ are identifiable or almost identifiable from only $X$. Essentially, sufficient conditions are (1) non-Gaussian, independent noise or (2) no influence from $X$ to $Z$. We present two estimation algorithms that are tailored towards conditions (1) and (2), respectively, and evaluate them on synthetic and real-world data. We discuss how to check the model using $X$.

Latent Variable Models (LVMs) are a large family of machine learning models providing a principled and effective way to extract underlying patterns, structure and knowledge from observed data. Due to the dramatic growth of volume and complexity of data, several new challenges have emerged and cannot be effectively addressed by existing LVMs: (1) How to capture long-tail patterns that carry crucial information when the popularity of patterns is distributed in a power-law fashion? (2) How to reduce model complexity and computational cost without compromising the modeling power of LVMs? (3) How to improve the interpretability and reduce the redundancy of discovered patterns? To addresses the three challenges discussed above, we develop a novel regularization technique for LVMs, which controls the geometry of the latent space during learning to enable the learned latent components of LVMs to be diverse in the sense that they are favored to be mutually different from each other, to accomplish long-tail coverage, low redundancy, and better interpretability. We propose a mutual angular regularizer (MAR) to encourage the components in LVMs to have larger mutual angles. The MAR is non-convex and non-smooth, entailing great challenges for optimization. To cope with this issue, we derive a smooth lower bound of the MAR and optimize the lower bound instead. We show that the monotonicity of the lower bound is closely aligned with the MAR to qualify the lower bound as a desirable surrogate of the MAR. Using neural network (NN) as an instance, we analyze how the MAR affects the generalization performance of NN. On two popular latent variable models --- restricted Boltzmann machine and distance metric learning, we demonstrate that MAR can effectively capture long-tail patterns, reduce model complexity without sacrificing expressivity and improve interpretability.

The total variation (TV) penalty, as many other analysis-sparsity problems, does not lead to separable factors or a proximal operatorwith a closed-form expression, such as soft thresholding for the $\ell\_1$ penalty. As a result, in a variational formulation of an inverse problem or statisticallearning estimation, it leads to challenging non-smooth optimization problemsthat are often solved with elaborate single-step first-order methods. When thedata-fit term arises from empirical measurements, as in brain imaging, it isoften very ill-conditioned and without simple structure. In this situation, in proximal splitting methods, the computation cost of thegradient step can easily dominate each iteration. Thus it is beneficialto minimize the number of gradient steps.We present fAASTA, a variant of FISTA, that relies on an internal solver forthe TV proximal operator, and refines its tolerance to balance computationalcost of the gradient and the proximal steps. We give benchmarks andillustrations on "brain decoding": recovering brain maps from noisymeasurements to predict observed behavior. The algorithm as well as theempirical study of convergence speed are valuable for any non-exact proximaloperator, in particular analysis-sparsity problems.