We present a revenue optimization algorithm for posted-price auctions when facing a buyer with random valuations who seeks to optimize his $\gamma$-discounted surplus. To analyze this problem, we introduce the notion of epsilon-strategic buyer, a more natural notion of strategic behavior than what has been used in the past. We improve upon the previous state-of-the-art and achieve an optimal regret bound in $O\Big( \log T + \frac{1}{\log(1/\gamma)} \Big)$ when the seller can offer prices from a finite set $\cP$ and provide a regret bound in $\widetilde O \Big(\sqrt{T} + \frac{T^{1/4}}{\log(1/\gamma)} \Big)$ when the buyer is offered prices from the interval $[0, 1]$.

We focus on the discovery and identification of direct causes and effects of a target variable in a causal network. State-of-the-art algorithms generally need to find the global causal structures in the form of complete partial directed acyclic graphs in order to identify the direct causes and effects of a target variable. While these algorithms are effective, it is often unnecessary and wasteful to find the global structures when we are only interested in one target variable (such as class labels). We propose a new local causal discovery algorithm, called Causal Markov Blanket (CMB), to identify the direct causes and effects of a target variable based on Markov Blanket Discovery. CMB is designed to conduct causal discovery among multiple variables, but focuses only on finding causal relationships between a specific target variable and other variables. Under standard assumptions, we show both theoretically and experimentally that the proposed local causal discovery algorithm can obtain the comparable identification accuracy as global methods but significantly improve their efficiency, often by more than one order of magnitude.

The dynamics of simple decisions are well understood and modeled as a class of random walk models (e.g. Laming, 1968; Ratcliff, 1978; Busemeyer and Townsend, 1993; Usher and McClelland, 2001; Bogacz et al., 2006). However, most real-life decisions include a rich and dynamically-changing influence of additional information we call context. In this work, we describe a computational theory of decision making under dynamically shifting context. We show how the model generalizes the dominant existing model of fixed-context decision making (Ratcliff, 1978) and can be built up from a weighted combination of fixed-context decisions evolving simultaneously. We also show how the model generalizes re- cent work on the control of attention in the Flanker task (Yu et al., 2009). Finally, we show how the model recovers qualitative data patterns in another task of longstanding psychological interest, the AX Continuous Performance Test (Servan-Schreiber et al., 1996), using the same model parameters.

Many neural circuits are composed of numerous distinct cell types that perform different operations on their inputs, and send their outputs to distinct targets. Therefore, a key step in understanding neural systems is to reliably distinguish cell types. An important example is the retina, for which present-day techniques for identifying cell types are accurate, but very labor-intensive. Here, we develop automated classifiers for functional identification of retinal ganglion cells, the output neurons of the retina, based solely on recorded voltage patterns on a large scale array. We use per-cell classifiers based on features extracted from electrophysiological images (spatiotemporal voltage waveforms) and interspike intervals (autocorrelations). These classifiers achieve high performance in distinguishing between the major ganglion cell classes of the primate retina, but fail in achieving the same accuracy in predicting cell polarities (ON vs. OFF). We then show how to use indicators of functional coupling within populations of ganglion cells (cross-correlation) to infer cell polarities with a matrix completion algorithm. This can result in accurate, fully automated methods for cell type classification.

Deep dynamic generative models are developed to learn sequential dependencies in time-series data. The multi-layered model is designed by constructing a hierarchy of temporal sigmoid belief networks (TSBNs), defined as a sequential stack of sigmoid belief networks (SBNs). Each SBN has a contextual hidden state, inherited from the previous SBNs in the sequence, and is used to regulate its hidden bias. Scalable learning and inference algorithms are derived by introducing a recognition model that yields fast sampling from the variational posterior. This recognition model is trained jointly with the generative model, by maximizing its variational lower bound on the log-likelihood. Experimental results on bouncing balls, polyphonic music, motion capture, and text streams show that the proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance, and has the capacity to synthesize various sequences.

Variable screening is a fast dimension reduction technique for assisting high dimensional feature selection. As a preselection method, it selects a moderate size subset of candidate variables for further refining via feature selection to produce the final model. The performance of variable screening depends on both computational efficiency and the ability to dramatically reduce the number of variables without discarding the important ones. When the data dimension $p$ is substantially larger than the sample size $n$, variable screening becomes crucial as 1) Faster feature selection algorithms are needed; 2) Conditions guaranteeing selection consistency might fail to hold.This article studies a class of linear screening methods and establishes consistency theory for this special class. In particular, we prove the restricted diagonally dominant (RDD) condition is a necessary and sufficient condition for strong screening consistency. As concrete examples, we show two screening methods $SIS$ and $HOLP$ are both strong screening consistent (subject to additional constraints) with large probability if $n > O((\rho s + \sigma/\tau)^2\log p)$ under random designs. In addition, we relate the RDD condition to the irrepresentable condition, and highlight limitations of $SIS$.

We propose a Bayesian mixed-effects model to learn typical scenarios of changes from longitudinal manifold-valued data, namely repeated measurements of the same objects or individuals at several points in time. The model allows to estimate a group-average trajectory in the space of measurements. Random variations of this trajectory result from spatiotemporal transformations, which allow changes in the direction of the trajectory and in the pace at which trajectories are followed. The use of the tools of Riemannian geometry allows to derive a generic algorithm for any kind of data with smooth constraints, which lie therefore on a Riemannian manifold. Stochastic approximations of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm is used to estimate the model parameters in this highly non-linear setting.The method is used to estimate a data-driven model of the progressive impairments of cognitive functions during the onset of Alzheimer's disease. Experimental results show that the model correctly put into correspondence the age at which each individual was diagnosed with the disease, thus validating the fact that it effectively estimated a normative scenario of disease progression. Random effects provide unique insights into the variations in the ordering and timing of the succession of cognitive impairments across different individuals.

We introduce a novel information-theoretic approach for active model selection and demonstrate its effectiveness in a real-world application. Although our method can work with arbitrary models, we focus on actively learning the appropriate structure for Gaussian process (GP) models with arbitrary observation likelihoods. We then apply this framework to rapid screening for noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL), a widespread and preventible disability, if diagnosed early. We construct a GP model for pure-tone audiometric responses of patients with NIHL. Using this and a previously published model for healthy responses, the proposed method is shown to be capable of diagnosing the presence or absence of NIHL with drastically fewer samples than existing approaches. Further, the method is extremely fast and enables the diagnosis to be performed in real time.

A market scoring rule (MSR) – a popular tool for designing algorithmic prediction markets – is an incentive-compatible mechanism for the aggregation of probabilistic beliefs from myopic risk-neutral agents. In this paper, we add to a growing body of research aimed at understanding the precise manner in which the price process induced by a MSR incorporates private information from agents who deviate from the assumption of risk-neutrality. We first establish that, for a myopic trading agent with a risk-averse utility function, a MSR satisfying mild regularity conditions elicits the agent’s risk-neutral probability conditional on the latest market state rather than her true subjective probability. Hence, we show that a MSR under these conditions effectively behaves like a more traditional method of belief aggregation, namely an opinion pool, for agents’ true probabilities. In particular, the logarithmic market scoring rule acts as a logarithmic pool for constant absolute risk aversion utility agents, and as a linear pool for an atypical budget-constrained agent utility with decreasing absolute risk aversion. We also point out the interpretation of a market maker under these conditions as a Bayesian learner even when agent beliefs are static.

To make sense of the world our brains must analyze high-dimensional datasets streamed by our sensory organs. Because such analysis begins with dimensionality reduction, modelling early sensory processing requires biologically plausible online dimensionality reduction algorithms. Recently, we derived such an algorithm, termed similarity matching, from a Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) objective function. However, in the existing algorithm, the number of output dimensions is set a priori by the number of output neurons and cannot be changed. Because the number of informative dimensions in sensory inputs is variable there is a need for adaptive dimensionality reduction. Here, we derive biologically plausible dimensionality reduction algorithms which adapt the number of output dimensions to the eigenspectrum of the input covariance matrix. We formulate three objective functions which, in the offline setting, are optimized by the projections of the input dataset onto its principal subspace scaled by the eigenvalues of the output covariance matrix. In turn, the output eigenvalues are computed as i) soft-thresholded, ii) hard-thresholded, iii) equalized thresholded eigenvalues of the input covariance matrix. In the online setting, we derive the three corresponding adaptive algorithms and map them onto the dynamics of neuronal activity in networks with biologically plausible local learning rules. Remarkably, in the last two networks, neurons are divided into two classes which we identify with principal neurons and interneurons in biological circuits.