Collaborative filtering analyzes user preferences for items (e.g., books, movies, restaurants, academic papers) by exploiting the similarity patterns across users. In implicit feedback settings, all the items, including the ones that a user did not consume, are taken into consideration. But this assumption does not accord with the common sense understanding that users have a limited scope and awareness of items. For example, a user might not have heard of a certain paper, or might live too far away from a restaurant to experience it. In the language of causal analysis, the assignment mechanism (i.e., the items that a user is exposed to) is a latent variable that may change for various user/item combinations. In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic approach that directly incorporates user exposure to items into collaborative filtering. The exposure is modeled as a latent variable and the model infers its value from data. In doing so, we recover one of the most successful state-of-the-art approaches as a special case of our model, and provide a plug-in method for conditioning exposure on various forms of exposure covariates (e.g., topics in text, venue locations). We show that our scalable inference algorithm outperforms existing benchmarks in four different domains both with and without exposure covariates.

In high-dimensional data, structured noise caused by observed and unobserved factors affecting multiple target variables simultaneously, imposes a serious challenge for modeling, by masking the often weak signal. Therefore, (1) explaining away the structured noise in multiple-output regression is of paramount importance. Additionally, (2) assumptions about the correlation structure of the regression weights are needed. We note that both can be formulated in a natural way in a latent variable model, in which both the interesting signal and the noise are mediated through the same latent factors. Under this assumption, the signal model then borrows strength from the noise model by encouraging similar effects on correlated targets. We introduce a hyperparameter for the \emph{latent signal-to-noise ratio} which turns out to be important for modelling weak signals, and an ordered infinite-dimensional shrinkage prior that resolves the rotational unidentifiability in reduced-rank regression models. Simulations and prediction experiments with metabolite, gene expression, FMRI measurement, and macroeconomic time series data show that our model equals or exceeds the state-of-the-art performance and, in particular, outperforms the standard approach of assuming independent noise and signal models.

Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) have been gaining momentum in making human-computer interaction more natural, especially for people with neuro-muscular disabilities. Among the existing solutions the systems relying on electroencephalograms (EEG) occupy the most prominent place due to their non-invasiveness. However, the process of translating EEG signals into computer commands is far from trivial, since it requires the optimization of many different parameters that need to be tuned jointly. In this report, we focus on the category of EEG-based BCIs that rely on Steady-State-Visual-Evoked Potentials (SSVEPs) and perform a comparative evaluation of the most promising algorithms existing in the literature. More specifically, we define a set of algorithms for each of the various different parameters composing a BCI system (i.e. filtering, artifact removal, feature extraction, feature selection and classification) and study each parameter independently by keeping all other parameters fixed. The results obtained from this evaluation process are provided together with a dataset consisting of the 256-channel, EEG signals of 11 subjects, as well as a processing toolbox for reproducing the results and supporting further experimentation. In this way, we manage to make available for the community a state-of-the-art baseline for SSVEP-based BCIs that can be used as a basis for introducing novel methods and approaches.

Extreme classification problems are multiclass and multilabel classification problems where the number of outputs is so large that straightforward strategies are neither statistically nor computationally viable. One strategy for dealing with the computational burden is via a tree decomposition of the output space. While this typically leads to training and inference that scales sublinearly with the number of outputs, it also results in reduced statistical performance. In this work, we identify two shortcomings of tree decomposition methods, and describe two heuristic mitigations. We compose these with an eigenvalue technique for constructing the tree. The end result is a computationally efficient algorithm that provides good statistical performance on several extreme data sets.

This paper introduces the Ubuntu Dialogue Corpus, a dataset containing almost 1 million multi-turn dialogues, with a total of over 7 million utterances and 100 million words. This provides a unique resource for research into building dialogue managers based on neural language models that can make use of large amounts of unlabeled data. The dataset has both the multi-turn property of conversations in the Dialog State Tracking Challenge datasets, and the unstructured nature of interactions from microblog services such as Twitter. We also describe two neural learning architectures suitable for analyzing this dataset, and provide benchmark performance on the task of selecting the best next response.

This paper introduces a novel graph-analytic approach for detecting anomalies in network flow data called GraphPrints. Building on foundational network-mining techniques, our method represents time slices of traffic as a graph, then counts graphlets -- small induced subgraphs that describe local topology. By performing outlier detection on the sequence of graphlet counts, anomalous intervals of traffic are identified, and furthermore, individual IPs experiencing abnormal behavior are singled-out. Initial testing of GraphPrints is performed on real network data with an implanted anomaly. Evaluation shows false positive rates bounded by 2.84% at the time-interval level, and 0.05% at the IP-level with 100% true positive rates at both.

Cascades of information-sharing are a primary mechanism by which content reaches its audience on social media, and an active line of research has studied how such cascades, which form as content is reshared from person to person, develop and subside. In this paper, we perform a large-scale analysis of cascades on Facebook over significantly longer time scales, and find that a more complex picture emerges, in which many large cascades recur, exhibiting multiple bursts of popularity with periods of quiescence in between. We characterize recurrence by measuring the time elapsed between bursts, their overlap and proximity in the social network, and the diversity in the demographics of individuals participating in each peak. We discover that content virality, as revealed by its initial popularity, is a main driver of recurrence, with the availability of multiple copies of that content helping to spark new bursts. Still, beyond a certain popularity of content, the rate of recurrence drops as cascades start exhausting the population of interested individuals. We reproduce these observed patterns in a simple model of content recurrence simulated on a real social network. Using only characteristics of a cascade's initial burst, we demonstrate strong performance in predicting whether it will recur in the future.

Traditionally, practitioners initialize the {\tt k-means} algorithm with centers chosen uniformly at random. Randomized initialization with uneven weights ({\tt k-means++}) has recently been used to improve the performance over this strategy in cost and run-time. We consider the k-means problem with semi-supervised information, where some of the data are pre-labeled, and we seek to label the rest according to the minimum cost solution. By extending the {\tt k-means++} algorithm and analysis to account for the labels, we derive an improved theoretical bound on expected cost and observe improved performance in simulated and real data examples. This analysis provides theoretical justification for a roughly linear semi-supervised clustering algorithm.

Mechanisms of human color vision are characterized by two phenomenological aspects: the system is nonlinear and adaptive to changing environments. Conventional attempts to derive these features from statistics use separate arguments for each aspect. The few statistical approaches that do consider both phenomena simultaneously follow parametric formulations based on empirical models. Therefore, it may be argued that the behavior does not come directly from the color statistics but from the convenient functional form adopted. In addition, many times the whole statistical analysis is based on simplified databases that disregard relevant physical effects in the input signal, as for instance by assuming flat Lambertian surfaces. Here we address the simultaneous statistical explanation of (i) the nonlinear behavior of achromatic and chromatic mechanisms in a fixed adaptation state, and (ii) the change of such behavior. Both phenomena emerge directly from the samples through a single data-driven method: the Sequential Principal Curves Analysis (SPCA) with local metric. SPCA is a new manifold learning technique to derive a set of sensors adapted to the manifold using different optimality criteria. A new database of colorimetrically calibrated images of natural objects under these illuminants was collected. The results obtained by applying SPCA show that the psychophysical behavior on color discrimination thresholds, discount of the illuminant and corresponding pairs in asymmetric color matching, emerge directly from realistic data regularities assuming no a priori functional form. These results provide stronger evidence for the hypothesis of a statistically driven organization of color sensors. Moreover, the obtained results suggest that color perception at this low abstraction level may be guided by an error minimization strategy rather than by the information maximization principle.

This paper presents a new framework for manifold learning based on a sequence of principal polynomials that capture the possibly nonlinear nature of the data. The proposed Principal Polynomial Analysis (PPA) generalizes PCA by modeling the directions of maximal variance by means of curves, instead of straight lines. Contrarily to previous approaches, PPA reduces to performing simple univariate regressions, which makes it computationally feasible and robust. Moreover, PPA shows a number of interesting analytical properties. First, PPA is a volume-preserving map, which in turn guarantees the existence of the inverse. Second, such an inverse can be obtained in closed form. Invertibility is an important advantage over other learning methods, because it permits to understand the identified features in the input domain where the data has physical meaning. Moreover, it allows to evaluate the performance of dimensionality reduction in sensible (input-domain) units. Volume preservation also allows an easy computation of information theoretic quantities, such as the reduction in multi-information after the transform. Third, the analytical nature of PPA leads to a clear geometrical interpretation of the manifold: it allows the computation of Frenet-Serret frames (local features) and of generalized curvatures at any point of the space. And fourth, the analytical Jacobian allows the computation of the metric induced by the data, thus generalizing the Mahalanobis distance. These properties are demonstrated theoretically and illustrated experimentally. The performance of PPA is evaluated in dimensionality and redundancy reduction, in both synthetic and real datasets from the UCI repository.