The standard convergence analysis of mini-batch stochastic gradient descent (SGD) models gradient noise using a single variance term that treats all parameter directions equally, ignoring the fact that noise in high-curvature directions has less impact because learning rates are already constrained there. We introduce Curvature-Weighted Gradient Diversity (CWGD), a geometry-aware measure that weights per-sample gradient diversity by the inverse square root of the Hessian, providing a tighter proxy for the effective optimization noise. For strongly convex quadratic objectives with diagonal Hessians and isotropic noise, we prove that a CWGD-modulated cosine learning-rate schedule can reduce the asymptotic optimization error floor by up to a factor of two compared with standard cosine annealing. We implement this idea as CWGD-Cosine using a Hutchinson-based diagonal Hessian estimator that is exact for quadratic objectives. Across a range of condition numbers, batch sizes, and noise structures, CWGD-Cosine consistently achieves approximately 20% lower final optimization error than standard cosine annealing while incurring negligible overhead in the quadratic setting. We also identify and correct a degenerate curvature estimator, analyze the robustness of the proposed estimator, and explicitly discuss the limitations of the method, including Hessian staleness in non-convex optimization. These results establish CWGD as a principled geometry-aware measure of optimization noise and motivate future extensions to more general learning problems.

The Sliced Wasserstein (SW) distance has emerged as a computationally attractive alternative to the Wasserstein distance by leveraging one-dimensional optimal transport along random projections. Standard estimators of the SW distance rely on Monte Carlo averages of one-dimensional Wasserstein distances computed via quantile functions, which require sorting projected samples and access to full datasets. In this work, we introduce a new class of estimators for the Sliced Wasserstein distance based on cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of projected measures, that avoid sorting and scale via massive dataset parallelism. This class includes several estimators, some of them being indexed by hyperparameters controlling their variance or smoothness. We show that they are especially well suited to scenarios in which CDFs are more tractable than quantile functions, such as mixtures of Gaussians, and moreover that they are also naturally compatible with federated learning, since CDFs of projected data can be computed and aggregated locally without requiring the exchange of raw samples.

Neural networks are known to be susceptible to over-reliance on spurious correlations. However, the precise mechanism by which models exploit shortcut features is not fully understood, and algorithms to mitigate this behavior rely on as yet unjustified assumptions about the learned representations. In this work, we provide the first end-to-end theoretical characterization of spurious feature learning for two-layer ReLU neural networks trained by online minibatch SGD on the logistic loss. We consider data drawn from the high-dimensional Boolean hypercube with a quadratic signal function (namely XOR) and a linear spurious correlation. We show that SGD learns the spurious feature first, and exponentially fast. Moreover, the optimization dynamics couple the spurious and signal features, with a stronger spurious component inhibiting signal feature learning. Our analysis reveals precise phase transitions in the learning dynamics. In the first phase, alignment between the signs of the spurious feature and second-layer weight drives rapid growth of the spurious feature. In the second phase, large majority group margin slows learning and the signal feature remains suppressed. When the spurious correlation is maximally strong, we show theoretically that the spurious feature dominates even at the sample complexity threshold where XOR would be learned in isolation (i.e., if the spurious feature was absent). In contrast, when the correlation strength is constant, we provide preliminary empirical evidence that the model can eventually learn the XOR signal, although the spurious feature is not forgotten.

Transfer learning leverages knowledge from related source domains to improve learning in a target domain. Recent theoretical advances cover a broad range of regression settings within (generalized) linear models. Despite their diversity, these methods share two common constraints: they assume a known link function or linear structure and require direct access to raw source data. To move beyond these constraints, we propose a source-data-free transfer learning framework based on the single-index model (SIM). Instead of requiring raw source data, our method transfers only summary statistics derived from a generalized Stein's lemma in a one-time communication. This design preserves privacy and avoids side effects caused by dissimilarities of unknown nonlinear link functions across domains. To capture flexible, unknown nonlinearity, we employ a multilayer perceptron guided by the pre-estimated index from the transferred statistics, which significantly mitigates overfitting. Extensive experiments on synthetic data and a real-world application demonstrate consistent improvements over existing (generalized) linear model-based approaches. The proposed framework thus offers a practical, privacy-preserving, and nonlinear-adaptive solution for transfer learning.

Predictive models are increasingly embedded in operational decision-making, yet standard explanation methods typically explain forecasts rather than the decisions those forecasts induce. This distinction is important in predict-then-optimize systems: large forecast changes may leave the optimizer's action unchanged, while small changes can alter the selected decision and its realized value. We propose Decision Value Attribution (DVA), a Shapley-based framework for attributing the value of a fixed prediction--optimization pipeline. The framework defines cooperative games whose payoff is the downstream decision value, allowing the players to be information sources, optimization or design parameters, or both. We present three variants: InfoDVA attributes value to features, DesignDVA attributes value to operational configurations, and Decision-Value Interactions (DVI) quantifies how information and design jointly create value. We further distinguish post-DVA, which evaluates decisions using realized outcomes, from pre-DVA, which evaluates decisions under the model's full prediction. This separation turns attribution into a decision-level diagnostic of whether the model's operational beliefs align with realized performance. The resulting attributions are expressed in the units of the operational objective and decompose the gain or loss relative to a baseline. Case studies in electricity storage arbitrage and emergency medical service coverage show that predictive explanations can be poor proxies for operational value, that DVA can guide targeted information-control interventions, and that optimization configurations determine when predictive information is decision-relevant.

This work presents a new bidirectional autoregressive latent diffusion approach for predicting the evolution of multiple fields (mass density, pressure, velocity, and magnetic field components) for magnetohydrodynamics. We show that this bidirectional flow can be used as a self-supervised consistency metric for uncertainty and error estimation, which enables the model to estimate test-time uncertainty and error without access to ground truth, by comparing how closely flowing forwards and backwards in time returns to the same predicted fields. We also demonstrate this methods's potential to serve as a non-invasive plasma diagnostic, and show how adaptive feedback can be used to make the model more robust based on sparse diagnostics or limited views/measurements.

Principal stratification provides a foundational framework for causal inference with intermediate outcomes by defining causal effects within subpopulations, yet existing work has largely focused on average effects across strata rather than treatment effect heterogeneity within strata. Such within-stratum heterogeneity informs individualized treatment decisions but the associated methods are sparse. We address this gap by studying the identification and estimation of the conditional principal causal effects under principal ignorability combined with an odds ratio sensitivity parameterization, which relaxes the monotonicity assumption. To efficiently learn these estimands, we propose a novel doubly cross-fit doubly robust machine learner that resolves the nested nuisance structure inherent to principal stratification. Leveraging sequential orthogonal learning with regularized least-squares sieves, we derive $\mathcal{L}^2$ and uniform limit theory, establish oracle efficiency, and construct uniform confidence bands for the proposed estimator. We use simulations to demonstrate the finite-sample performance of our estimator, and provide an empirical analysis of a randomized trial in acute lung injury, revealing informative patterns of treatment effect heterogeneity within the always-survivor subpopulation.

Data valuation quantifies the intrinsic quality of individual samples to enable principled data curation, quality control, and robust learning. For time series in critical domains such as healthcare, finance, and industrial monitoring, effective valuation methods are essential yet fundamentally lacking. Existing approaches are either model-dependent, limiting their generalizability, or designed for i.i.d. data and thus fail to capture temporal dependencies, multi-scale patterns, and non-stationary dynamics inherent to sequential data. We introduce TimeLAVA, a learning-agnostic framework that values temporal segments by their marginal contribution to minimizing distributional discrepancy between evaluated and reference data. At its core is a novel Selective Wavelet-based Wasserstein discrepancy combining multi-scale wavelet transforms for temporal localization with unbalanced optimal transport for robustness to distributional shifts. Segment values are efficiently computed via sensitivity analysis without requiring model training and aggregated into point-wise scores. We provide theoretical guarantees linking valuation to model-agnostic generalization and prove bounded sensitivity to outlier contamination. Extensive experiments across anomaly detection, data pruning, and label noise detection demonstrate that TimeLAVA produces significantly more informative value scores than existing methods on diverse real-world datasets.

Effective sub-typing (also known as grouping or clustering) of patients using their electronic health record (EHR) data can greatly inform precision medicine efforts. However, subtyping temporal EHR datasets is known to be challenging due to inherent EHR issues, including complexity and irregularity. In this study, we propose a self-supervised Mamba-based model that learns effective EHR representations and enables enhanced patient subtyping. We evaluate the proposed model on public and private real-world EHR datasets to classify the data based on the available labels and subtype patients based on the representations learned from the model. Through an extensive set of experiments, we demonstrate that our model's design choices lead to better performance compared to competitive baseline models for prediction. Moreover, we evaluate several clustering techniques to demonstrate that our findings offer valuable insights into subtyping patients based on temporal records from EHR models\footnote{Our implementations are available at https://github.com/healthylaife/triplet_mamba.

The common factor analytic model is related to Helmholtz and Boltzmann machines, can be conceived as a linear autoencoder, or can be thought of as a single-hidden-layer generative neural network. We thus consider it a basal generative representation learner that can be used as a minimal model for studying the foundational characteristics of (deep) generative model architectures. We focus on the fundamental problem of indeterminacy in latent factor projections. This indeterminacy implies that, even when the intrinsic dimension of the latent vector is known, regularity conditions are met, and rotational indeterminacy is resolved, an inherent indefiniteness in the retrieval of causative latent sources remains: they will be uncertain, distributionally deviant, and non-unique. This can have major implications for data representation but remains an elusive issue, even to practitioners and theorists well-versed in the factor model. Moreover, this classic psychometric problem is intricately related to the modern issue of latent variable collapse in the variational autoencoder framework for deep generative modeling. Here, we assess this indeterminacy from various perspectives and show how these are mathematically and conceptually related and we discuss subsequent implications for the Psychometrics, Statistics, and Artificial Intelligence communities. We show that one has latent factor determinacy across all its facets when the feature-dimension grows to infinity. This feeds into an essentially distribution-free estimation approach in the sample case when the number of features grows very large. We conclude, as these are emergent properties at scale, that the factor model is suited for representation learning of very-high-dimensional data.