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Conformal Bayes for Two-Sided Censored Gaussian Regression under Label Shift

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Prediction under label shift becomes nonstandard when responses are censored. In a two-sided censored Gaussian model, latent values below $L$ and above $U$ are recorded at the boundary values, so the observed predictive distribution is mixed, with atoms at $L$ and $U$ and a continuous density on $(L,U)$. In this paper we develop conformal Bayes for this mixed-space setting by combining posterior predictive tilting with weighted conformal calibration. Under a two-sided Tobit Gaussian Bayesian prediction head with a Laplace posterior approximation, the tilted predictive distribution has left-atom, interior, and right-atom components, with a three-term closed-form normalizer. The resulting prediction set is a mixed highest density region that can combine boundary atoms with an interior interval and can reduce to atom-only sets under strong censoring. The main technical issue is that latent label shift does not directly give an ordinary density ratio on the observed censored scale. A latent exponential tilt induces tail-averaged atom weights at the censored boundaries, while the interior ratio remains density based. This yields a mixed observed-space calibration weight with two atom ratios and one interior density ratio. The weight corrects the calibration measure, while predictive tilting gives target-adapted mixed-HDR geometry. Synthetic experiments show that weighted tilted conformal Bayes restores marginal coverage with smaller sets than weighted source-score calibration, while revealing a trade-off between marginal coverage and component-wise behavior across atoms and interior observations.


An Additive MLP-GNN Framework for Characterizing Chemical and Structural Contributions to Aqueous Solubility

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Aqueous solubility is a key property in early-stage drug discovery, but most predictive models merge physicochemical descriptors and molecular graph information into a single representation, obscuring whether a prediction is driven by global chemistry, molecular structure, or both. We present an additive deep-learning framework that keeps these two sources of information separate throughout training: physicochemical descriptors are encoded by a multilayer perceptron (the chemical branch) and molecular graph topology by a graph neural network (the structural branch), with the two outputs combined only at the prediction stage through an additive model with an optional multiplicative interaction. This design provides a direct decomposition of chemical and structural components that can be examined separately after training. Furthermore, pretraining on the larger AqSolDB dataset and fine-tuning on the smaller BigSolDB2 dataset substantially improve accuracy and reduce run-to-run variations, indicating generalizability of the learned features from the data-rich settings. We further interpret the fitted model using best linear projections of the branch outputs, molecule-level embedding summaries across solubility classes, and atom-level GNNExplainer masks aggregated over functional groups. These analyses show that the chemical branch aligns with familiar physicochemical descriptors, while the structural branch captures graph-topological and functional-group patterns associated with solubility. Across both datasets, the framework attains competitive predictive performance while making the distinct roles of chemical and structural information more transparent.


The Dual Nature of LLM Persona: Aggregated Tendencies and Frame-Dependent Geometry

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Evaluations of LLM personas via psychometric questionnaires typically rely on aggregate scores, discarding within-instance correlation structure. We test whether this geometric structure is intrinsic or frame-dependent. Constructing within-instance correlation matrices from IPIP-50 responses, we analyze geometry on SPD manifolds under manipulated question orderings in GPT-4o simulating American and Chinese-American personas. We find that persona expression comprises two dissociable components: aggregated features (Big Five scores) degrade under randomization (21% drop) but are frame-robust; geometric features (SPD manifold) collapse under frame misalignment (42% drop) but recover substantially (to 84%) under shared frames, surpassing aggregated features (76%). This collapse-recovery pattern reveals that persona geometry is not intrinsic but a frame-dependent coordination pattern encoding information invisible to aggregation. Our findings establish a dual-nature framework for LLM personas, frame-dependent geometry versus frame-robust aggregates, necessitating frame-aware evaluation and challenging static trait conceptions.


Iran Holds Funerary Processions for Late Supreme Leader in 'Referendum' for Regime

TIME - Tech

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AI is 'not smart' so what's next in artificial intelligence?

BBC News

AI is'not smart' so what's next in artificial intelligence? We don't have robots that are nearly as good at understanding the physical world as a rat, says Yann LeCun, one of the leading figures in the world of artificial intelligence. He worked at Facebook-owner, Meta, for a decade, where he was chief AI scientist, but left in 2025 and founded Advanced Machine Intelligence Labs (AMI Labs). His goal is to move AI beyond current systems like ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini. They have their uses, he says, but will never be able to tackle complicated situations in the real world, like getting a robot to do household chores.


Meta has released an app for making generative AI games

Engadget

Meta appears to have soft-launched a new app called Pocket that's aimed at getting people to vibe-code their own minigames. Mobile developer and reverse engineer Alessandro Paluzzi spotted Pocket and posted about it to X today, but reporting platform AppFigures told TechCrunch that the app has been available on both iOS and Android since June 29. Though the app is listed publicly, it's not available in the US on any of the half dozen phone models associated with our Google accounts, and a help page on Meta's site says the Pocket app is not yet available everywhere. The company has not made any public announcement yet about the launch or where the app is being trialed. We've reached out for comment and will update this post if we receive a response.


Cloudflare will filter out web crawlers that serve AI companies

Engadget

The hosting platform wants sites to have more control over how AI companies use their content. Cloudflare has announced plans to automatically block mixed-use web crawlers that index websites for search engines and act as AI agents and trainers at the same time. The company previously offered its customers the optional ability to prevent crawlers from scraping their sites for AI chatbots, but now Cloudflare's stance is becoming more defensive by default. Now that the majority of traffic on the Internet is non-human, we must go further and act faster so that a sustainable ecosystem can emerge, Matthew Prince, Cloudflare's CEO and co-founder shared in a statement. Cloudflare's new tools and partnerships give website owners increased visibility and commercial opportunities and benefit AI companies that have bots with clear and transparent intent.


How Big Is 'Love Island USA'? More Than 10 Million People Are Already on Its App

WIRED

"We have more people voting on the app than we do in many political elections taking place across the country," says the show's executive producer. Walls of cameras so millions of Americans can watch your spicy summer flings happen in real time? The app, where levels of viewer engagement are so high that it crashed during the first vote. Fans of the real-time dating show relish controlling the action through their in-app votes, helping decide who couples up and who gets dumped. Fan votes happen around five times during each season.


Canada Coach Jesse Marsch Does Not Care What You Think of Him

TIME - Tech

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This Star-Studded Movie Cost 40 Million to Make. It Hasn't Been Released Yet. The Reason Why Is Nefarious.

Slate

The drama reveals just how deeply Silicon Valley has sunk its claws into Hollywood. Enter your email to receive alerts for this author. You can manage your newsletter subscriptions at any time. You're already subscribed to the aa_Nitish_Pahwa newsletter. You can manage your newsletter subscriptions at any time.