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Exploring Vulnerability in AI Industry

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid ascent of Foundation Models (FMs), enabled by the Transformer architecture, drives the current AI ecosystem. Characterized by large-scale training and downstream adaptability, FMs (as GPT family) have achieved massive public adoption, fueling a turbulent market shaped by platform economics and intense investment. Assessing the vulnerability of this fast-evolving industry is critical yet challenging due to data limitations. This paper proposes a synthetic AI Vulnerability Index (AIVI) focusing on the upstream value chain for FM production, prioritizing publicly available data. We model FM output as a function of five inputs: Compute, Data, Talent, Capital, and Energy, hypothesizing that supply vulnerability in any input threatens the industry. Key vulnerabilities include compute concentration, data scarcity and legal risks, talent bottlenecks, capital intensity and strategic dependencies, as well as escalating energy demands. Acknowledging imperfect input substitutability, we propose a weighted geometrical average of aggregate subindexes, normalized using theoretical or empirical benchmarks. Despite limitations and room for improvement, this preliminary index aims to quantify systemic risks in AI's core production engine, and implicitly shed a light on the risks for downstream value chain.


Bid2X: Revealing Dynamics of Bidding Environment in Online Advertising from A Foundation Model Lens

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Auto-bidding is crucial in facilitating online advertising by automatically providing bids for advertisers. While previous work has made great efforts to model bidding environments for better ad performance, it has limitations in generalizability across environments since these models are typically tailored for specific bidding scenarios. To this end, we approach the scenario-independent principles through a unified function that estimates the achieved effect under specific bids, such as budget consumption, gross merchandise volume (GMV), page views, etc. Then, we propose a bidding foundation model Bid2X to learn this fundamental function from data in various scenarios. Our Bid2X is built over uniform series embeddings that encode heterogeneous data through tailored embedding methods. To capture complex inter-variable and dynamic temporal dependencies in bidding data, we propose two attention mechanisms separately treating embeddings of different variables and embeddings at different times as attention tokens for representation learning. On top of the learned variable and temporal representations, a variable-aware fusion module is used to perform adaptive bidding outcome prediction. To model the unique bidding data distribution, we devise a zero-inflated projection module to incorporate the estimated non-zero probability into its value prediction, which makes up a joint optimization objective containing classification and regression. The objective is proven to converge to the zero-inflated distribution. Our model has been deployed on the ad platform in Taobao, one of the world's largest e-commerce platforms. Offline evaluation on eight datasets exhibits Bid2X's superiority compared to various baselines and its generality across different scenarios. Bid2X increased GMV by 4.65% and ROI by 2.44% in online A/B tests, paving the way for bidding foundation model in computational advertising.


Floating-Point Neural Network Verification at the Software Level

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The behaviour of neural network components must be proven correct before deployment in safety-critical systems. Unfortunately, existing neural network verification techniques cannot certify the absence of faults at the software level. In this paper, we show how to specify and verify that neural networks are safe, by explicitly reasoning about their floating-point implementation. In doing so, we construct NeuroCodeBench 2.0, a benchmark comprising 912 neural network verification examples that cover activation functions, common layers, and full neural networks of up to 170K parameters. Our verification suite is written in plain C and is compatible with the format of the International Competition on Software Verification (SV-COMP). Thanks to it, we can conduct the first rigorous evaluation of eight state-of-the-art software verifiers on neural network code. The results show that existing automated verification tools can correctly solve an average of 11% of our benchmark, while producing around 3% incorrect verdicts. At the same time, a historical analysis reveals that the release of our benchmark has already had a significantly positive impact on the latter.


Symbolic Neural Generation with Applications to Lead Discovery in Drug Design

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate a relatively underexplored class of hybrid neurosymbolic models integrating symbolic learning with neural reasoning to construct data generators meeting formal correctness criteria. In \textit{Symbolic Neural Generators} (SNGs), symbolic learners examine logical specifications of feasible data from a small set of instances -- sometimes just one. Each specification in turn constrains the conditional information supplied to a neural-based generator, which rejects any instance violating the symbolic specification. Like other neurosymbolic approaches, SNG exploits the complementary strengths of symbolic and neural methods. The outcome of an SNG is a triple $(H, X, W)$, where $H$ is a symbolic description of feasible instances constructed from data, $X$ a set of generated new instances that satisfy the description, and $W$ an associated weight. We introduce a semantics for such systems, based on the construction of appropriate \textit{base} and \textit{fibre} partially-ordered sets combined into an overall partial order, and outline a probabilistic extension relevant to practical applications. In this extension, SNGs result from searching over a weighted partial ordering. We implement an SNG combining a restricted form of Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) with a large language model (LLM) and evaluate it on early-stage drug design. Our main interest is the description and the set of potential inhibitor molecules generated by the SNG. On benchmark problems -- where drug targets are well understood -- SNG performance is statistically comparable to state-of-the-art methods. On exploratory problems with poorly understood targets, generated molecules exhibit binding affinities on par with leading clinical candidates. Experts further find the symbolic specifications useful as preliminary filters, with several generated molecules identified as viable for synthesis and wet-lab testing.


ZeroFlood: A Geospatial Foundation Model for Data-Efficient Flood Susceptibility Mapping

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Flood susceptibility mapping (FSM) is vital for disaster prevention but remains challenging in data-scarce regions where hydrodynamic models require dense geophysical inputs. This work introduces ZeroFlood, a geospatial foundation model framework for data-efficient FSM. The approach fine-tunes Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs) with Thinking-in-Modality (TiM) reasoning, enabling flood prediction from basic Earth observation data such as Sentinel-1 or Sentinel-2 imagery. Using paired EO and simulated flood maps from data-rich regions, ZeroFlood bridges data availability gaps through cross-modal representation learning. Experiments with TerraMind and Prithvi GFMs show that TiM enhances model robustness, with the TerraMind-Large configuration achieving an F1 score of 67.21. The results demonstrate the feasibility of foundation-model-based FSM as a scalable and data-efficient solution for flood risk management.


How AI Forecasts AI Jobs: Benchmarking LLM Predictions of Labor Market Changes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence is reshaping labor markets, yet we lack tools to systematically forecast its effects on employment. This paper introduces a benchmark for evaluating how well large language models (LLMs) can anticipate changes in job demand, especially in occupations affected by AI. Existing research has shown that LLMs can extract sentiment, summarize economic reports, and emulate forecaster behavior, but little work has assessed their use for forward-looking labor prediction. Our benchmark combines two complementary datasets: a high-frequency index of sector-level job postings in the United States, and a global dataset of projected occupational changes due to AI adoption. We format these data into forecasting tasks with clear temporal splits, minimizing the risk of information leakage. We then evaluate LLMs using multiple prompting strategies, comparing task-scaffolded, persona-driven, and hybrid approaches across model families. We assess both quantitative accuracy and qualitative consistency over time. Results show that structured task prompts consistently improve forecast stability, while persona prompts offer advantages on short-term trends. However, performance varies significantly across sectors and horizons, highlighting the need for domain-aware prompting and rigorous evaluation protocols. By releasing our benchmark, we aim to support future research on labor forecasting, prompt design, and LLM-based economic reasoning. This work contributes to a growing body of research on how LLMs interact with real-world economic data, and provides a reproducible testbed for studying the limits and opportunities of AI as a forecasting tool in the context of labor markets.


Large language model-based task planning for service robots: A review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) and robotics, service robots are increasingly becoming an integral part of daily life, offering a wide range of services in complex environments. To deliver these services intelligently and efficiently, robust and accurate task planning capabilities are essential. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the integration of LLMs into service robotics, with a particular focus on their role in enhancing robotic task planning. First, the development and foundational techniques of LLMs, including pre-training, fine-tuning, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and prompt engineering, are reviewed. We then explore the application of LLMs as the cognitive core-`brain'-of service robots, discussing how LLMs contribute to improved autonomy and decision-making. Furthermore, recent advancements in LLM-driven task planning across various input modalities are analyzed, including text, visual, audio, and multimodal inputs. Finally, we summarize key challenges and limitations in current research and propose future directions to advance the task planning capabilities of service robots in complex, unstructured domestic environments. This review aims to serve as a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the fields of artificial intelligence and robotics.


Planning Ahead with RSA: Efficient Signalling in Dynamic Environments by Projecting User Awareness across Future Timesteps

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Adaptive agent design offers a way to improve human-AI collaboration on time-sensitive tasks in rapidly changing environments. In such cases, to ensure the human maintains an accurate understanding of critical task elements, an assistive agent must not only identify the highest priority information but also estimate how and when this information can be communicated most effectively, given that human attention represents a zero-sum cognitive resource where focus on one message diminishes awareness of other or upcoming information. We introduce a theoretical framework for adaptive signalling which meets these challenges by using principles of rational communication, formalised as Bayesian reference resolution using the Rational Speech Act (RSA) modelling framework, to plan a sequence of messages which optimise timely alignment between user belief and a dynamic environment. The agent adapts message specificity and timing to the particulars of a user and scenario based on projections of how prior-guided interpretation of messages will influence attention to the interface and subsequent belief update, across several timesteps out to a fixed horizon. In a comparison to baseline methods, we show that this effectiveness depends crucially on combining multi-step planning with a realistic model of user awareness. As the first application of RSA for communication in a dynamic environment, and for human-AI interaction in general, we establish theoretical foundations for pragmatic communication in human-agent teams, highlighting how insights from cognitive science can be capitalised to inform the design of assistive agents.


BaZi-Based Character Simulation Benchmark: Evaluating AI on Temporal and Persona Reasoning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human-like virtual characters are crucial for games, storytelling, and virtual reality, yet current methods rely heavily on annotated data or handcrafted persona prompts, making it difficult to scale up and generate realistic, contextually coherent personas. We create the first QA dataset for BaZi-based persona reasoning, where real human experiences categorized into wealth, health, kinship, career, and relationships are represented as life-event questions and answers. Furthermore, we propose the first BaZi-LLM system that integrates symbolic reasoning with large language models to generate temporally dynamic and fine-grained virtual personas. Compared with mainstream LLMs such as DeepSeek-v3 and GPT-5-mini, our method achieves a 30.3%-62.6% accuracy improvement. In addition, when incorrect BaZi information is used, our model's accuracy drops by 20%-45%, showing the potential of culturally grounded symbolic-LLM integration for realistic character simulation.


Adaptive Blockwise Search: Inference-Time Alignment for Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

LLM alignment remains a critical challenge. Inference-time methods provide a flexible alternative to fine-tuning, but their uniform computational effort often yields suboptimal alignment. We hypothesize that for many alignment tasks, the initial tokens of a response are disproportionately more critical. To leverage this principle, we introduce AdaSearch, a novel blockwise search strategy. It adaptively allocates a fixed computational budget using a sampling schedule, focusing search effort on these critical tokens. We apply AdaSearch to sequential decoding and introduce its tree-search counterpart, AdaBeam. Our comprehensive evaluation across eight LLMs demonstrates that AdaSearch outperforms strong Best-of-N and fine-tuning baselines. Specifically, win-rates improve by over 10% for harmlessness generation, controlled sentiment generation, and for mathematical reasoning tasks relative to Best-of-N.