Within the time of a human generation, computer technology will be capable of producing computers with as many artificial neurons as there are neurons in the human brain. Within two human generations, intelligists (AI researchers) will have discovered how to use such massive computing capacity in brainlike ways. This situation raises the likelihood that twenty-first century global politics will be dominated by the question, Who or what is to be the dominant species on this planet? This article discusses rival political and technological scenarios about the rise of the artilect (artificial intellect, ultraintelligent machine) and launches a plea that a world conference be held on the so-called "artilect debate."

This article records the results of an experiment in which a survey of AI and expert systems (ES) literature was attempted using Science Citation Indexes. The survey identified a sample of authors and institutions that have had a significant impact on the historical development of AI and ES. However, it also identified several glaring problems with using Science Citation Indexes as a method of comprehensively studying a body of scientific research. Accordingly, the reader is cautioned against using the results presented here to conclude that author A is a better or worse AI researcher than author B.

A panel session at the 1989 International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Los Angeles dealt with the subject of knowledge-based systems; the session was entitled "Expert Systems: How Far Can They Go?" The panelists included Randall Davis (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Stuart Dreyfus (University of California at Berkeley); Brian Smith (Xerox Palo Alto Research Center); and Terry Winograd (Stanford University), chairman. Part 1 of this article, which appeared in the Spring 1989 issue, began with Winograd's original charge to the panel, followed by lightly edited transcripts of presentations from Winograd and Dreyfus. Part 2 begins with the presentations from Smith and Davis and concludes with the panel discussion. Although almost four years have passed since this discussion took place, the issues raised and the points discussed appear no less relevant today.

An artificial laboratory is a hypothetical computing environment of the future that would integrate mathematical and statistical tools with AI methods to assist in computer modeling and simulation. An integrated approach of this kind has great potential for accelerating the rate of scientific discovery.

Commentators on AI converge on two goals they believe define the field: (1) to better understand the mind by specifying computational models and (2) to construct computer systems that perform actions traditionally regarded as mental. We should recognize that AI has a third, hidden, more basic aim; that the first two goals are special cases of the third; and that the actual technical substance of AI concerns only this more basic aim. This third aim is to establish new computation-based representational media, media in which human intellect can come to express itself with different clarity and force. This article articulates this proposal by showing how the intellectual activity we label AI can be likened in revealing ways to each of five familiar technologies.

Review of Expert Systems for the Technical Professional

The specific motivations underlying this research include the following propositions: (1) Reasoning from experimental evidence contained in the clinical literature is central to the decisions physicians make in patient care. Furthermore, the model can help us better understand the general principles of reasoning from experimental evidence both in medicine and other domains. Roundsman is a developmental computer system that draws on structured representations of the clinical literature to critique plans for the management of primary breast cancer. Roundsman is able to produce patient-specific analyses of breast cancer-management options based on the 24 clinical studies currently encoded in its knowledge base.

A panel session at the 1989 International Joint Conference on artificial intelligence in Los Angeles dealt with the subject of knowledge-based systems; the session was entitled "Expert Systems: How Far Can They Go?" The panelists included Randall Davis (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Stuart Dreyfus (University of California at Berkeley); Brian Smith (Xerox Palo Alto Research Center); and Terry Winograd (Stanford University), chairman. Part 1 includes presentations from Winograd and Dreyfus. Part 2, which will appear in the Summer 1989 issue, includes presentations from Smith and Davis and concludes with the panel discussion.

Robert K. Levin, Diane E. Drang, and Barry Edelson's book might better be titled, an introduction to expert systems: Turbo Pascal edition. THe book does not live up to the promise implied in the title.

Artificial Intelligence is solving more and more real world problems, but penetration into the complexities of government administration has been minimal. The author suggests that combining expert system technology with conventional procedural computer systems can lead to substantial efficiencies. Business rules can be removed from business-oriented computer systems and stored in a separate but integrated knowledge base, where maintenance will be centralized. Fourteen specific practical applications are suggested.