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SmallML: Bayesian Transfer Learning for Small-Data Predictive Analytics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) represent 99.9% of U.S. businesses yet remain systematically excluded from AI due to a mismatch between their operational scale and modern machine learning's data requirements. This paper introduces SmallML, a Bayesian transfer learning framework achieving enterprise-level prediction accuracy with datasets as small as 50-200 observations. We develop a three-layer architecture integrating transfer learning, hierarchical Bayesian modeling, and conformal prediction. Layer 1 extracts informative priors from 22,673 public records using a SHAP-based procedure transferring knowledge from gradient boosting to logistic regression. Layer 2 implements hierarchical pooling across J=5-50 SMEs with adaptive shrinkage, balancing population patterns with entity-specific characteristics. Layer 3 provides conformal sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees P(y in C(x)) >= 1-alpha for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. Validation on customer churn data demonstrates 96.7% +/- 4.2% AUC with 100 observations per business -- a +24.2 point improvement over independent logistic regression (72.5% +/- 8.1%), with p < 0.000001. Conformal prediction achieves 92% empirical coverage at 90% target. Training completes in 33 minutes on standard CPU hardware. By enabling enterprise-grade predictions for 33 million U.S. SMEs previously excluded from machine learning, SmallML addresses a critical gap in AI democratization. Keywords: Bayesian transfer learning, hierarchical models, conformal prediction, small-data analytics, SME machine learning


From Legacy Fortran to Portable Kokkos: An Autonomous Agentic AI Workflow

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Scientific applications continue to rely on legacy Fortran codebases originally developed for homogeneous, CPU-based systems. As High-Performance Computing (HPC) shifts toward heterogeneous GPU-accelerated architectures, many accelerators lack native Fortran bindings, creating an urgent need to modernize legacy codes for portability. Frameworks like Kokkos provide performance portability and a single-source C++ abstraction, but manual Fortran-to-Kokkos porting demands significant expertise and time. Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in source-to-source code generation, yet their use in fully autonomous workflows for translating and optimizing parallel code remains largely unexplored, especially for performance portability across diverse hardware. This paper presents an agentic AI workflow where specialized LLM "agents" collaborate to translate, validate, compile, run, test, debug, and optimize Fortran kernels into portable Kokkos C++ programs. Results show the pipeline modernizes a range of benchmark kernels, producing performance-portable Kokkos codes across hardware partitions. Paid OpenAI models such as GPT-5 and o4-mini-high executed the workflow for only a few U.S. dollars, generating optimized codes that surpassed Fortran baselines, whereas open-source models like Llama4-Maverick often failed to yield functional codes. This work demonstrates the feasibility of agentic AI for Fortran-to-Kokkos transformation and offers a pathway for autonomously modernizing legacy scientific applications to run portably and efficiently on diverse supercomputers. It further highlights the potential of LLM-driven agentic systems to perform structured, domain-specific reasoning tasks in scientific and systems-oriented applications.


Co-Alignment: Rethinking Alignment as Bidirectional Human-AI Cognitive Adaptation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current AI alignment through RLHF follows a single directional paradigm that AI conforms to human preferences while treating human cognition as fixed. We propose a shift to co-alignment through Bidirectional Cognitive Alignment (BiCA), where humans and AI mutually adapt. BiCA uses learnable protocols, representation mapping, and KL-budget constraints for controlled co-evolution. In collaborative navigation, BiCA achieved 85.5% success versus 70.3% baseline, with 230% better mutual adaptation and 332% better protocol convergence. Emergent protocols outperformed handcrafted ones by 84%, while bidirectional adaptation unexpectedly improved safety (+23% out-of-distribution robustness). The 46% synergy improvement demonstrates optimal collaboration exists at the intersection, not union, of human and AI capabilities, validating the shift from single-directional to co-alignment paradigms.


Robustness of LLM-enabled vehicle trajectory prediction under data security threats

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The integration of large language models (LLMs) into automated driving systems has opened new possibilities for reasoning and decision-making by transforming complex driving contexts into language-understandable representations. Recent studies demonstrate that fine-tuned LLMs can accurately predict vehicle trajectories and lane-change intentions by gathering and transforming data from surrounding vehicles. However, the robustness of such LLM-based prediction models for safety-critical driving systems remains unexplored, despite the increasing concerns about the trustworthiness of LLMs. This study addresses this gap by conducting a systematic vulnerability analysis of LLM-enabled vehicle trajectory prediction. We propose a one-feature differential evolution attack that perturbs a single kinematic feature of surrounding vehicles within the LLM's input prompts under a black-box setting. Experiments on the highD dataset reveal that even minor, physically plausible perturbations can significantly disrupt model outputs, underscoring the susceptibility of LLM-based predictors to adversarial manipulation. Further analyses reveal a trade-off between accuracy and robustness, examine the failure mechanism, and explore potential mitigation solutions. The findings provide the very first insights into adversarial vulnerabilities of LLM-driven automated vehicle models in the context of vehicular interactions and highlight the need for robustness-oriented design in future LLM-based intelligent transportation systems.


Motor Imagery Classification Using Feature Fusion of Spatially Weighted Electroencephalography

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A Brain Computer Interface (BCI) connects the human brain to the outside world, providing a direct communication channel. Electroencephalography (EEG) signals are commonly used in BCIs to reflect cognitive patterns related to motor function activities. However, due to the multichannel nature of EEG signals, explicit information processing is crucial to lessen computational complexity in BCI systems. This study proposes an innovative method based on brain region-specific channel selection and multi-domain feature fusion to improve classification accuracy. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in region-based channel selection, where EEG channels are grouped according to their functional relevance to distinct brain regions. By selecting channels based on specific regions involved in motor imagery (MI) tasks, this technique eliminates irrelevant channels, reducing data dimensionality and improving computational efficiency. This also ensures that the extracted features are more reflective of the brain actual activity related to motor tasks. Three distinct feature extraction methods Common Spatial Pattern (CSP), Fuzzy C-means clustering, and Tangent Space Mapping (TSM), are applied to each group of channels based on their brain region. Each method targets different characteristics of the EEG signal: CSP focuses on spatial patterns, Fuzzy C means identifies clusters within the data, and TSM captures non-linear patterns in the signal. The combined feature vector is used to classify motor imagery tasks (left hand, right hand, and right foot) using Support Vector Machine (SVM). The proposed method was validated on publicly available benchmark EEG datasets (IVA and I) from the BCI competition III and IV. The results show that the approach outperforms existing methods, achieving classification accuracies of 90.77% and 84.50% for datasets IVA and I, respectively.


10Cache: Heterogeneous Resource-Aware Tensor Caching and Migration for LLM Training

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Training large language models (LLMs) in the cloud faces growing memory bottlenecks due to the limited capacity and high cost of GPUs. While GPU memory offloading to CPU and NVMe has made large-scale training more feasible, existing approaches suffer from high tensor migration latency and suboptimal device memory utilization, ultimately increasing training time and cloud costs. To address these challenges, we present 10Cache, a resource-aware tensor caching and migration system that accelerates LLM training by intelligently coordinating memory usage across GPU, CPU, and NVMe tiers. 10Cache profiles tensor execution order to construct prefetch policies, allocates memory buffers in pinned memory based on tensor size distributions, and reuses memory buffers to minimize allocation overhead. Designed for cloud-scale deployments, 10Cache improves memory efficiency and reduces reliance on high-end GPUs. Across diverse LLM workloads, it achieves up to 2x speedup in training time, improves GPU cache hit rate by up to 86.6x, and increases CPU/GPU memory utilization by up to 2.15x and 1.33x, respectively, compared to state-of-the-art offloading methods. These results demonstrate that 10Cache is a practical and scalable solution for optimizing LLM training throughput and resource efficiency in cloud environments.


Multi-view Phase-aware Pedestrian-Vehicle Incident Reasoning Framework with Vision-Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pedestrian-vehicle incidents remain a critical urban safety challenge, with pedestrians accounting for over 20% of global traffic fatalities. Although existing video-based systems can detect when incidents occur, they provide little insight into how these events unfold across the distinct cognitive phases of pedestrian behavior. Recent vision-language models (VLMs) have shown strong potential for video understanding, but they remain limited in that they typically process videos in isolation, without explicit temporal structuring or multi-view integration. This paper introduces Multi-view Phase-aware Pedestrian-Vehicle Incident Reasoning (MP-PVIR), a unified framework that systematically processes multi-view video streams into structured diagnostic reports through four stages: (1) event-triggered multi-view video acquisition, (2) pedestrian behavior phase segmentation, (3) phase-specific multi-view reasoning, and (4) hierarchical synthesis and diagnostic reasoning. The framework operationalizes behavioral theory by automatically segmenting incidents into cognitive phases, performing synchronized multi-view analysis within each phase, and synthesizing results into causal chains with targeted prevention strategies. Particularly, two specialized VLMs underpin the MP-PVIR pipeline: TG-VLM for behavioral phase segmentation (mIoU = 0.4881) and PhaVR-VLM for phase-aware multi-view analysis, achieving a captioning score of 33.063 and up to 64.70% accuracy on question answering. Finally, a designated large language model is used to generate comprehensive reports detailing scene understanding, behavior interpretation, causal reasoning, and prevention recommendations. Evaluation on the Woven Traffic Safety dataset shows that MP-PVIR effectively translates multi-view video data into actionable insights, advancing AI-driven traffic safety analytics for vehicle-infrastructure cooperative systems.


Robust Verification of Controllers under State Uncertainty via Hamilton-Jacobi Reachability Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As perception-based controllers for autonomous systems become increasingly popular in the real world, it is important that we can formally verify their safety and performance despite perceptual uncertainty. Unfortunately, the verification of such systems remains challenging, largely due to the complexity of the controllers, which are often nonlinear, nonconvex, learning-based, and/or black-box. Prior works propose verification algorithms that are based on approximate reachability methods, but they often restrict the class of controllers and systems that can be handled or result in overly conservative analyses. Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) reachability analysis is a popular formal verification tool for general nonlinear systems that can compute optimal reachable sets under worst-case system uncertainties; however, its application to perception-based systems is currently underexplored. In this work, we propose RoVer-CoRe, a framework for the Robust Verification of Controllers via HJ Reachability. To the best of our knowledge, RoVer-CoRe is the first HJ reachability-based framework for the verification of perception-based systems under perceptual uncertainty. Our key insight is to concatenate the system controller, observation function, and the state estimation modules to obtain an equivalent closed-loop system that is readily compatible with existing reachability frameworks. Within RoVer-CoRe, we propose novel methods for formal safety verification and robust controller design. We demonstrate the efficacy of the framework in case studies involving aircraft taxiing and NN-based rover navigation. Code is available at the link in the footnote.


ARC Is a Vision Problem!

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) is designed to promote research on abstract reasoning, a fundamental aspect of human intelligence. Common approaches to ARC treat it as a language-oriented problem, addressed by large language models (LLMs) or recurrent reasoning models. However, although the puzzle-like tasks in ARC are inherently visual, existing research has rarely approached the problem from a vision-centric perspective. In this work, we formulate ARC within a vision paradigm, framing it as an image-to-image translation problem. T o incorporate visual priors, we represent the inputs on a "canvas" that can be processed like natural images. It is then natural for us to apply standard vision architectures, such as a vanilla Vision Transformer (ViT), to perform image-to-image mapping. Our model is trained from scratch solely on ARC data and generalizes to unseen tasks through test-time training. Our framework, termed Vision ARC (V ARC), achieves 60.4% accuracy on the ARC-1 benchmark, substantially outperforming existing methods that are also trained from scratch. Our results are competitive with those of leading LLMs and close the gap to average human performance.


SparseST: Exploiting Data Sparsity in Spatiotemporal Modeling and Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Spatiotemporal data mining (STDM) has a wide range of applications in various complex physical systems (CPS), i.e., transportation, manufacturing, healthcare, etc. Among all the proposed methods, the Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) has proved to be generalizable and extendable in different applications and has multiple variants achieving state-of-the-art performance in various STDM applications. However, ConvLSTM and its variants are computationally expensive, which makes them inapplicable in edge devices with limited computational resources. With the emerging need for edge computing in CPS, efficient AI is essential to reduce the computational cost while preserving the model performance. Common methods of efficient AI are developed to reduce redundancy in model capacity (i.e., model pruning, compression, etc.). However, spatiotemporal data mining naturally requires extensive model capacity, as the embedded dependencies in spatiotemporal data are complex and hard to capture, which limits the model redundancy. Instead, there is a fairly high level of data and feature redundancy that introduces an unnecessary computational burden, which has been largely overlooked in existing research. Therefore, we developed a novel framework SparseST, that pioneered in exploiting data sparsity to develop an efficient spatiotemporal model. In addition, we explore and approximate the Pareto front between model performance and computational efficiency by designing a multi-objective composite loss function, which provides a practical guide for practitioners to adjust the model according to computational resource constraints and the performance requirements of downstream tasks.