Industry
Cost-Aware Prediction (CAP): An LLM-Enhanced Machine Learning Pipeline and Decision Support System for Heart Failure Mortality Prediction
Yu, Yinan, Dippel, Falk, Lundberg, Christina E., Lindgren, Martin, Rosengren, Annika, Adiels, Martin, Sjöland, Helen
Objective: Machine learning (ML) predictive models are often developed without considering downstream value trade-offs and clinical interpretability. This paper introduces a cost-aware prediction (CAP) framework that combines cost-benefit analysis assisted by large language model (LLM) agents to communicate the trade-offs involved in applying ML predictions. Materials and Methods: We developed an ML model predicting 1-year mortality in patients with heart failure (N = 30,021, 22% mortality) to identify those eligible for home care. We then introduced clinical impact projection (CIP) curves to visualize important cost dimensions - quality of life and healthcare provider expenses, further divided into treatment and error costs, to assess the clinical consequences of predictions. Finally, we used four LLM agents to generate patient-specific descriptions. The system was evaluated by clinicians for its decision support value. Results: The eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB) model achieved the best performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.804 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.792-0.816), area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) of 0.529 (95% CI 0.502-0.558) and a Brier score of 0.135 (95% CI 0.130-0.140). Discussion: The CIP cost curves provided a population-level overview of cost composition across decision thresholds, whereas LLM-generated cost-benefit analysis at individual patient-levels. The system was well received according to the evaluation by clinicians. However, feedback emphasizes the need to strengthen the technical accuracy for speculative tasks. Conclusion: CAP utilizes LLM agents to integrate ML classifier outcomes and cost-benefit analysis for more transparent and interpretable decision support.
HEAD-QA v2: Expanding a Healthcare Benchmark for Reasoning
Correa-Guillén, Alexis, Gómez-Rodríguez, Carlos, Vilares, David
We introduce HEAD-QA v2, an expanded and updated version of a Spanish/English healthcare multiple-choice reasoning dataset originally released by Vilares and Gómez-Rodríguez (2019). The update responds to the growing need for high-quality datasets that capture the linguistic and conceptual complexity of healthcare reasoning. We extend the dataset to over 12,000 questions from ten years of Spanish professional exams, benchmark several open-source LLMs using prompting, RAG, and probability-based answer selection, and provide additional multilingual versions to support future work. Results indicate that performance is mainly driven by model scale and intrinsic reasoning ability, with complex inference strategies obtaining limited gains. Together, these results establish HEAD-QA v2 as a reliable resource for advancing research on biomedical reasoning and model improvement.
Multi-layer Stack Ensembles for Time Series Forecasting
Bosch, Nathanael, Shchur, Oleksandr, Erickson, Nick, Bohlke-Schneider, Michael, Türkmen, Caner
Ensembling is a powerful technique for improving the accuracy of machine learning models, with methods like stacking achieving strong results in tabular tasks. In time series forecasting, however, ensemble methods remain underutilized, with simple linear combinations still considered state-of-the-art. In this paper, we systematically explore ensembling strategies for time series forecasting. We evaluate 33 ensemble models -- both existing and novel -- across 50 real-world datasets. Our results show that stacking consistently improves accuracy, though no single stacker performs best across all tasks. To address this, we propose a multi-layer stacking framework for time series forecasting, an approach that combines the strengths of different stacker models. We demonstrate that this method consistently provides superior accuracy across diverse forecasting scenarios. Our findings highlight the potential of stacking-based methods to improve AutoML systems for time series forecasting.
Reflexive Evidence-Based Multimodal Learning for Clean Energy Transitions: Causal Insights on Cooking Fuel Access, Urbanization, and Carbon Emissions
Achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) requires not only technological innovation but also a deeper understanding of the socioeconomic factors influencing energy access and carbon emissions. While these factors are gaining attention, critical questions remain, particularly regarding how to quantify their impacts on energy systems, model their cross-domain interactions, and capture feedback dynamics in the broader context of energy transitions. To address these gaps, this study introduces ClimateAgents, an AI-based framework that combines large language models with domain-specialized agents to support hypothesis generation and scenario exploration. Leveraging 20 years of socioeconomic and emissions data from 265 economies, countries and regions, and 98 indicators drawn from the World Bank database, the framework applies a machine learning based causal inference approach to identify key determinants of carbon emissions in an evidence-based, data driven manner. The analysis highlights three primary drivers: access to clean cooking fuels in rural areas, access to clean cooking fuels in urban areas, and the percentage of population living in urban areas. These findings underscore the critical role of clean cooking technologies and urbanization patterns in shaping emission outcomes. In line with growing calls for evidence-based AI policy, ClimateAgents offers a modular and reflexive learning system that supports the generation of credible and actionable insights for policy. By integrating heterogeneous data modalities, including structured indicators, policy documents, and semantic reasoning, the framework contributes to adaptive policymaking infrastructures that can evolve with complex socio-technical challenges. This approach aims to support a shift from siloed modeling to reflexive, modular systems designed for dynamic, context-aware climate action.
STREAM-VAE: Dual-Path Routing for Slow and Fast Dynamics in Vehicle Telemetry Anomaly Detection
Özer, Kadir-Kaan, Ebeling, René, Enzweiler, Markus
Automotive telemetry data exhibits slow drifts and fast spikes, often within the same sequence, making reliable anomaly detection challenging. Standard reconstruction-based methods, including sequence variational autoencoders (VAEs), use a single latent process and therefore mix heterogeneous time scales, which can smooth out spikes or inflate variances and weaken anomaly separation. In this paper, we present STREAM-VAE, a variational autoencoder for anomaly detection in automotive telemetry time-series data. Our model uses a dual-path encoder to separate slow drift and fast spike signal dynamics, and a decoder that represents transient deviations separately from the normal operating pattern. STREAM-VAE is designed for deployment, producing stable anomaly scores across operating modes for both in-vehicle monitors and backend fleet analytics. Experiments on an automotive telemetry dataset and the public SMD benchmark show that explicitly separating drift and spike dynamics improves robustness compared to strong forecasting, attention, graph, and VAE baselines.
SkyEgg: Joint Implementation Selection and Scheduling for Hardware Synthesis using E-graphs
Xiao, Youwei, Zou, Yuyang, Liang, Yun
Hardware synthesis from high-level descriptions remains fundamentally limited by the sequential optimization of interdependent design decisions. Current methodologies, including state-of-the-art high-level synthesis (HLS) tools, artificially separate implementation selection from scheduling, leading to suboptimal designs that cannot fully exploit modern FPGA heterogeneous architectures. Implementation selection is typically performed by ad-hoc pattern matching on operations, a process that does not consider the impact on scheduling. Subsequently, scheduling algorithms operate on fixed selection solutions with inaccurate delay estimates, which misses critical optimization opportunities from appropriately configured FPGA blocks like DSP slices. We present SkyEgg, a novel hardware synthesis framework that jointly optimizes implementation selection and scheduling using the e-graph data structure. Our key insight is that both algebraic transformations and hardware implementation choices can be uniformly represented as rewrite rules within an e-graph, modeling the complete design space of implementation candidates to be selected and scheduled together. First, SkyEgg constructs an e-graph from the input program. It then applies both algebraic and implementation rewrites through equality saturation. Finally, it formulates the joint optimization as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem on the saturated e-graph. We provide both exact MILP solving and an efficient ASAP heuristic for scalable synthesis. Our evaluation on benchmarks from diverse applications targeting Xilinx Kintex UltraScale+ FPGAs demonstrates that SkyEgg achieves an average speedup of 3.01x over Vitis HLS, with improvements up to 5.22x for complex expressions.
Opinion Dynamics Models for Sentiment Evolution in Weibo Blogs
He, Yulong, Proskurnikov, Anton V., Sedakov, Artem
Online social media platforms enable influencers to distribute content and quickly capture audience reactions, significantly shaping their promotional strategies and advertising agreements. Understanding how sentiment dynamics and emotional contagion unfold among followers is vital for influencers and marketers, as these processes shape engagement, brand perception, and purchasing behavior. While sentiment analysis tools effectively track sentiment fluctuations, dynamical models explaining their evolution remain limited, often neglecting network structures and interactions both among blogs and between their topic-focused follower groups. In this study, we tracked influential tech-focused Weibo bloggers over six months, quantifying follower sentiment from text-mined feedback. By treating each blogger's audience as a single "macro-agent", we find that sentiment trajectories follow the principle of iterative averaging -- a foundational mechanism in many dynamical models of opinion formation, a theoretical framework at the intersection of social network analysis and dynamical systems theory. The sentiment evolution aligns closely with opinion-dynamics models, particularly modified versions of the classical French-DeGroot model that incorporate delayed perception and distinguish between expressed and private opinions. The inferred influence structures reveal interdependencies among blogs that may arise from homophily, whereby emotionally similar users subscribe to the same blogs and collectively shape the shared sentiment expressed within these communities.
Adversarial Attack on Black-Box Multi-Agent by Adaptive Perturbation
Chen, Jianming, Wang, Yawen, Wang, Junjie, Xie, Xiaofei, Hu, Yuanzhe, Wang, Qing, Xu, Fanjiang
Evaluating security and reliability for multi-agent systems (MAS) is urgent as they become increasingly prevalent in various applications. As an evaluation technique, existing adversarial attack frameworks face certain limitations, e.g., impracticality due to the requirement of white-box information or high control authority, and a lack of stealthiness or effectiveness as they often target all agents or specific fixed agents. To address these issues, we propose AdapAM, a novel framework for adversarial attacks on black-box MAS. AdapAM incorporates two key components: (1) Adaptive Selection Policy simultaneously selects the victim and determines the anticipated malicious action (the action would lead to the worst impact on MAS), balancing effectiveness and stealthiness. (2) Proxy-based Perturbation to Induce Malicious Action utilizes generative adversarial imitation learning to approximate the target MAS, allowing AdapAM to generate perturbed observations using white-box information and thus induce victims to execute malicious action in black-box settings. We evaluate AdapAM across eight multi-agent environments and compare it with four state-of-the-art and commonly-used baselines. Results demonstrate that AdapAM achieves the best attack performance in different perturbation rates. Besides, AdapAM-generated perturbations are the least noisy and hardest to detect, emphasizing the stealthiness.
Path Planning through Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning in Dynamic Environments
De Maeyer, Jonas, Yarahmadi, Hossein, Challenger, Moharram
Path planning in dynamic environments is a fundamental challenge in intelligent transportation and robotics, where obstacles and conditions change over time, introducing uncertainty and requiring continuous adaptation. While existing approaches often assume complete environmental unpredictability or rely on global planners, these assumptions limit scalability and practical deployment in real-world settings. In this paper, we propose a scalable, region-aware reinforcement learning (RL) framework for path planning in dynamic environments. Our method builds on the observation that environmental changes, although dynamic, are often localized within bounded regions. To exploit this, we introduce a hierarchical decomposition of the environment and deploy distributed RL agents that adapt to changes locally. We further propose a retraining mechanism based on sub-environment success rates to determine when policy updates are necessary. Two training paradigms are explored: single-agent Q-learning and multi-agent federated Q-learning, where local Q-tables are aggregated periodically to accelerate the learning process. Unlike prior work, we evaluate our methods in more realistic settings, where multiple simultaneous obstacle changes and increasing difficulty levels are present. Results show that the federated variants consistently outperform their single-agent counterparts and closely approach the performance of A* Oracle while maintaining shorter adaptation times and robust scalability. Although initial training remains time-consuming in large environments, our decentralized framework eliminates the need for a global planner and lays the groundwork for future improvements using deep RL and flexible environment decomposition.
SNAP: Low-Latency Test-Time Adaptation with Sparse Updates
Cha, Hyeongheon, Kim, Dong Min, Chung, Hye Won, Gong, Taesik, Lee, Sung-Ju
Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) adjusts models using unlabeled test data to handle dynamic distribution shifts. However, existing methods rely on frequent adaptation and high computational cost, making them unsuitable for resource-constrained edge environments. To address this, we propose SNAP, a sparse TTA framework that reduces adaptation frequency and data usage while preserving accuracy. SNAP maintains competitive accuracy even when adapting based on only 1% of the incoming data stream, demonstrating its robustness under infrequent updates. Our method introduces two key components: (i) Class and Domain Representative Memory (CnDRM), which identifies and stores a small set of samples that are representative of both class and domain characteristics to support efficient adaptation with limited data; and (ii) Inference-only Batch-aware Memory Normalization (IoBMN), which dynamically adjusts normalization statistics at inference time by leveraging these representative samples, enabling efficient alignment to shifting target domains. Integrated with five state-of-the-art TTA algorithms, SNAP reduces latency by up to 93.12%, while keeping the accuracy drop below 3.3%, even across adaptation rates ranging from 1% to 50%. This demonstrates its strong potential for practical use on edge devices serving latency-sensitive applications. The source code is available at https://github.com/chahh9808/SNAP.