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Adaptive Nonlinear Vector Autoregression: Robust Forecasting for Noisy Chaotic Time Series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) and reservoir computing (RC) have shown promise in forecasting chaotic dynamical systems, such as the Lorenz-63 model and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. However, their reliance on fixed nonlinear transformations - polynomial expansions in NVAR or random feature maps in RC - limits their adaptability to high noise or complex real-world data. Furthermore, these methods also exhibit poor scalability in high-dimensional settings due to costly matrix inversion during optimization. We propose a data-adaptive NVAR model that combines delay-embedded linear inputs with features generated by a shallow, trainable multilayer perceptron (MLP). Unlike standard NVAR and RC models, the MLP and linear readout are jointly trained using gradient-based optimization, enabling the model to learn data-driven nonlinearities, while preserving a simple readout structure and improving scalability. Initial experiments across multiple chaotic systems, tested under noise-free and synthetically noisy conditions, showed that the adaptive model outperformed in predictive accuracy the standard NVAR, a leaky echo state network (ESN) - the most common RC model - and a hybrid ESN, thereby showing robust forecasting under noisy conditions.


RTNinja: A generalized machine learning framework for analyzing random telegraph noise signals in nanoelectronic devices

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Random telegraph noise is a prevalent variability phenomenon in nanoelectronic devices, arising from stochastic carrier exchange at defect sites and critically impacting device reliability and performance. Conventional analysis techniques often rely on restrictive assumptions or manual interventions, limiting their applicability to complex, noisy datasets. Here, we introduce RTNinja, a generalized, fully automated machine learning framework for the unsupervised analysis of random telegraph noise signals. RTNinja deconvolves complex signals to identify the number and characteristics of hidden individual sources without requiring prior knowledge of the system. The framework comprises two modular components: LevelsExtractor, which uses Bayesian inference and model selection to denoise and discretize the signal, and SourcesMapper, which infers source configurations through probabilistic clustering and optimization. To evaluate performance, we developed a Monte Carlo simulator that generates labeled datasets spanning broad signal-to-noise ratios and source complexities; across 7000 such datasets, RTNinja consistently demonstrated high-fidelity signal reconstruction and accurate extraction of source amplitudes and activity patterns. Our results demonstrate that RTNinja offers a robust, scalable, and device-agnostic tool for random telegraph noise characterization, enabling large-scale statistical benchmarking, reliability-centric technology qualification, predictive failure modeling, and device physics exploration in next-generation nanoelectronics.


Quantile Reward Policy Optimization: Alignment with Pointwise Regression and Exact Partition Functions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Aligning large language models with pointwise absolute rewards has so far required online, on-policy algorithms such as PPO and GRPO. In contrast, simpler methods that can leverage offline or off-policy data, such as DPO and REBEL, are limited to learning from preference pairs or relative signals. To bridge this gap, we introduce Quantile Reward Policy Optimization (QRPO), which learns from pointwise absolute rewards while preserving the simplicity and offline applicability of DPO-like methods. QRPO uses quantile rewards to enable regression to the closed-form solution of the KL-regularized RL objective. This reward yields an analytically tractable partition function, removing the need for relative signals to cancel this term. Moreover, QRPO scales with increased compute to estimate quantile rewards, opening a new dimension for pre-computation scaling. Empirically, QRPO consistently achieves top performance on chat and coding evaluations--reward model scores, AlpacaEval 2, and LeetCode--compared to DPO, REBEL, and SimPO across diverse datasets and 8B-scale models. Finally, we find that training with robust rewards instead of converting them to preferences induces less length bias.


Multigranular Evaluation for Brain Visual Decoding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Existing evaluation protocols for brain visual decoding predominantly rely on coarse metrics that obscure inter-model differences, lack neuroscientific foundation, and fail to capture fine-grained visual distinctions. To address these limitations, we introduce BASIC, a unified, multigranular evaluation framework that jointly quantifies structural fidelity, inferential alignment, and contextual coherence between decoded and ground-truth images. For the structural level, we introduce a hierarchical suite of segmentation-based metrics, including foreground, semantic, instance, and component masks, anchored in granularity-aware correspondence across mask structures. For the semantic level, we extract structured scene representations encompassing objects, attributes, and relationships using multimodal large language models, enabling detailed, scalable, and context-rich comparisons with ground-truth stimuli. We benchmark a diverse set of visual decoding methods across multiple stimulus-neuroimaging datasets within this unified evaluation framework. Together, these criteria provide a more discriminative, interpretable, and comprehensive foundation for evaluating brain visual decoding methods.


AI Should Sense Better, Not Just Scale Bigger: Adaptive Sensing as a Paradigm Shift

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current AI advances largely rely on scaling neural models and expanding training datasets to achieve generalization and robustness. Despite notable successes, this paradigm incurs significant environmental, economic, and ethical costs, limiting sustainability and equitable access. Inspired by biological sensory systems, where adaptation occurs dynamically at the input (e.g., adjusting pupil size, refocusing vision)--we advocate for adaptive sensing as a necessary and foundational shift. Adaptive sensing proactively modulates sensor parameters (e.g., exposure, sensitivity, multimodal configurations) at the input level, significantly mitigating covariate shifts and improving efficiency. Empirical evidence from recent studies demonstrates that adaptive sensing enables small models (e.g., EfficientNet-B0) to surpass substantially larger models (e.g., OpenCLIP-H) trained with significantly more data and compute. We (i) outline a roadmap for broadly integrating adaptive sensing into real-world applications spanning humanoid, healthcare, autonomous systems, agriculture, and environmental monitoring, (ii) critically assess technical and ethical integration challenges, and (iii) propose targeted research directions, such as standardized benchmarks, real-time adaptive algorithms, multimodal integration, and privacy-preserving methods. Collectively, these efforts aim to transition the AI community toward sustainable, robust, and equitable artificial intelligence systems.


How to Bridge the Sim-to-Real Gap in Digital Twin-Aided Telecommunication Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Training effective artificial intelligence models for telecommunications is challenging due to the scarcity of deployment-specific data. Real data collection is expensive, and available datasets often fail to capture the unique operational conditions and contextual variability of the network environment. Digital twinning provides a potential solution to this problem, as simulators tailored to the current network deployment can generate site-specific data to augment the available training datasets. However, there is a need to develop solutions to bridge the inherent simulation-to-reality (sim-to-real) gap between synthetic and real-world data. This paper reviews recent advances on two complementary strategies: 1) the calibration of digital twins (DTs) through real-world measurements, and 2) the use of sim-to-real gap-aware training strategies to robustly handle residual discrepancies between digital twin-generated and real data. For the latter, we evaluate two conceptually distinct methods that model the sim-to-real gap either at the level of the environment via Bayesian learning or at the level of the training loss via prediction-powered inference. Driven by the continued growth of computing resources and training datasets, artificial intelligence (AI) research is widely considered to be in the scaling era, which is focused on the development of general-purpose models that exhibit emergent capabilities. While this trend has yielded impressive results for many tasks, particularly in the domain of language modeling, it poses unique challenges when applied to engineering domains such as telecommunication networks.


ICAS: Detecting Training Data from Autoregressive Image Generative Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autoregressive image generation has witnessed rapid advancements, with prominent models such as scale-wise visual auto-regression pushing the boundaries of visual synthesis. However, these developments also raise significant concerns regarding data privacy and copyright. In response, training data detection has emerged as a critical task for identifying unauthorized data usage in model training. To better understand the vulnerability of autoregressive image generative models to such detection, we conduct the first study applying membership inference to this domain. Our approach comprises two key components: implicit classification and an adaptive score aggregation strategy. First, we compute the implicit token-wise classification score within the query image. Then we propose an adaptive score aggregation strategy to acquire a final score, which places greater emphasis on the tokens with lower scores. A higher final score indicates that the sample is more likely to be involved in the training set. To validate the effectiveness of our method, we adapt existing detection algorithms originally designed for LLMs to visual autoregressive models. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method in both class-conditional and text-to-image scenarios. Moreover, our approach exhibits strong robustness and generalization under various data transformations. Furthermore, sufficient experiments suggest two novel key findings: (1) A linear scaling law on membership inference, exposing the vulnerability of large foundation models. (2) Training data from scale-wise visual autoregressive models is easier to detect than other autoregressive paradigms. Our code is available at https://github.com/Chrisqcwx/ImageAR-MIA.


Adaptive Slimming for Scalable and Efficient Speech Enhancement

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Speech enhancement (SE) enables robust speech recognition, real-time communication, hearing aids, and other applications where speech quality is crucial. However, deploying such systems on resource-constrained devices involves choosing a static trade-off between performance and computational efficiency. In this paper, we introduce dynamic slimming to DEMUCS, a popular SE architecture, making it scalable and input-adaptive. Slimming lets the model operate at different utilization factors (UF), each corresponding to a different performance/efficiency trade-off, effectively mimicking multiple model sizes without the extra storage costs. In addition, a router subnet, trained end-to-end with the backbone, determines the optimal UF for the current input. Thus, the system saves resources by adaptively selecting smaller UFs when additional complexity is unnecessary. We show that our solution is Pareto-optimal against individual UFs, confirming the benefits of dynamic routing. When training the proposed dynamically-slimmable model to use 10% of its capacity on average, we obtain the same or better speech quality as the equivalent static 25% utilization while reducing MACs by 29%.


Quantifying Cognitive Bias Induction in LLM-Generated Content

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) are integrated into applications like shopping reviews, summarization, or medical diagnosis support, where their use affects human decisions. We investigate the extent to which LLMs expose users to biased content and demonstrate its effect on human decision-making. We assess five LLM families in summarization and news fact-checking tasks, evaluating the consistency of LLMs with their context and their tendency to hallucinate on a new self-updating dataset. Our findings show that LLMs expose users to content that changes the context's sentiment in 26.42% of cases (framing bias), hallucinate on 60.33% of post-knowledge-cutoff questions, and highlight context from earlier parts of the prompt (primacy bias) in 10.12% of cases, averaged across all tested models. We further find that humans are 32% more likely to purchase the same product after reading a summary of the review generated by an LLM rather than the original review. To address these issues, we evaluate 18 mitigation methods across three LLM families and find the effectiveness of targeted interventions.


InvisibleInk: High-Utility and Low-Cost Text Generation with Differential Privacy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As major progress in LLM-based long-form text generation enables paradigms such as retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and inference-time scaling, safely incorporating private information into the generation remains a critical open question. We present InvisibleInk, a highly scalable long-form text generation framework satisfying rigorous differential privacy guarantees with respect to the sensitive reference texts. It interprets sampling from the LLM's next-token-distribution as the exponential mechanism over the LLM logits with two innovations. First, we reduce the privacy cost by isolating and clipping only the sensitive information in the model logits (relative to the public logits). Second, we improve text quality by sampling without any privacy cost from a small superset of the top-$k$ private tokens. Empirical evaluations demonstrate a consistent $8\times$ (or more) reduction in computation cost over state-of-the-art baselines to generate long-form private text of the same utility across privacy levels. InvisibleInk is able to generate, for the first time, high-quality private long-form text at less than $4$-$8\times$ times the computation cost of non-private generation, paving the way for its practical use. We open-source a pip-installable Python package (invink) for InvisibleInk at https://github.com/cerai-iitm/invisibleink.