A large amount of work has been done in Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) for modeling and solving problems with multiple interacting agents. However, most LLMs are pretrained independently and not specifically optimized for coordination. For example, existing LLM fine-tuning frameworks rely on individual rewards, which require complex reward designs for each agent to encourage collaboration. To address this challenge, we model LLM collaboration as a cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) problem. We develop a multi-agent, multi-turn algorithm, Multi-Agent Group Relative Policy Optimization (MAGRPO), to solve it, building on current RL approaches for LLMs as well as MARL techniques. Our experiments on LLM writing and coding collaboration demonstrate that fine-tuning multiple LLMs with MAGRPO enables agents to generate high-quality responses efficiently through effective cooperation. Our approach opens the door to using MARL methods for LLM collaboration and highlights the associated challenges.

Accurately quantifying uncertainty of individual treatment effects (ITEs) across multiple decision points is crucial for personalized decision-making in fields such as healthcare, finance, education, and online marketplaces. Previous work has focused on predicting non-causal longitudinal estimands or constructing prediction bands for ITEs using cross-sectional data based on exchangeability assumptions. We propose a novel method for constructing prediction intervals using conformal inference techniques for time-varying ITEs with weaker assumptions than prior literature. We guarantee a lower bound for coverage, which is dependent on the degree of non-exchangeability in the data. Although our method is broadly applicable across decision-making contexts, we support our theoretical claims with simulations emulating micro-randomized trials (MRTs) -- a sequential experimental design for mobile health (mHealth) studies. We demonstrate the practical utility of our method by applying it to a real-world MRT - the Intern Health Study (IHS).

Input features are conventionally represented as vectors, matrices, or third order tensors in the real field, for color image classification. Inspired by the success of quaternion data modeling for color images in image recovery and denoising tasks, we propose a novel classification method for color image classification, named as the Low-rank Support Quaternion Matrix Machine (LSQMM), in which the RGB channels are treated as pure quaternions to effectively preserve the intrinsic coupling relationships among channels via the quaternion algebra. For the purpose of promoting low-rank structures resulting from strongly correlated color channels, a quaternion nuclear norm regularization term, serving as a natural extension of the conventional matrix nuclear norm to the quaternion domain, is added to the hinge loss in our LSQMM model. An Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM)-based iterative algorithm is designed to effectively resolve the proposed quaternion optimization model. Experimental results on multiple color image classification datasets demonstrate that our proposed classification approach exhibits advantages in classification accuracy, robustness and computational efficiency, compared to several state-of-the-art methods using support vector machines, support matrix machines, and support tensor machines.

We study estimation of the conditional law $P(Y|X=\mathbf{x})$ and continuous functionals $Ψ(P(Y|X=\mathbf{x}))$ when $Y$ takes values in a locally compact Polish space, $X \in \mathbb{R}^p$, and the observations arise from a complex survey design. We propose a survey-calibrated distributional random forest (SDRF) that incorporates complex-design features via a pseudo-population bootstrap, PSU-level honesty, and a Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) split criterion computed from kernel mean embeddings of Hájek-type (design-weighted) node distributions. We provide a framework for analyzing forest-style estimators under survey designs; establish design consistency for the finite-population target and model consistency for the super-population target under explicit conditions on the design, kernel, resampling multipliers, and tree partitions. As far as we are aware, these are the first results on model-free estimation of conditional distributions under survey designs. Simulations under a stratified two-stage cluster design provide finite sample performance and demonstrate the statistical error price of ignoring the survey design. The broad applicability of SDRF is demonstrated using NHANES: We estimate the tolerance regions of the conditional joint distribution of two diabetes biomarkers, illustrating how distributional heterogeneity can support subgroup-specific risk profiling for diabetes mellitus in the U.S. population.

In many high-stakes engineering and operational systems, such as autonomous vehicles [71], power systems [55], and healthcare [24], the outcomes that are most consequential for reliability, risk management, and decision-making arise not from typical observations, but from low-probability, high-impact scenarios situated at the periphery of the data-generating distribution. Such scenarios--stemming from atypical environmental conditions, irregular system configurations, or broader distributional shifts--often exert disproportionate influence on system performance. Yet, they are intrinsically difficult to observe, anticipate, or replicate through standard data-driven methods. Consequently, the ability to systematically construct informative worst-case samples is essential for rigorous stress testing, robustness certification, and the evaluation of models under meaningful but unobserved operating regimes. This need aligns with recent developments in generative modeling aimed at extreme-scenario synthesis, thereby enabling the identification of structural vulnerabilities that remain obscured under nominal data conditions. A natural framework for representing inference or decision-making systems under such worst-case scenarios is distributionally robust optimization (DRO), which minimizes expected loss over an ambiguity set of probability distributions and thereby provides a principled mechanism for modeling distributional uncertainty in stochastic optimization. Within this paradigm, Wasserstein DRO has emerged as a popular approach due to its geometry-aware ambiguity sets, which both capture realistic data perturbations and offer strong out-of-sample guarantees.

In recent years, mixture cure models have gained increasing popularity in survival analysis as an alternative to the Cox proportional hazards model, particularly in settings where a subset of patients is considered cured. The proportional hazards mixture cure model is especially advantageous when the presence of a cured fraction can be reasonably assumed, providing a more accurate representation of long-term survival dynamics. In this study, we propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian framework for the semiparametric mixture cure model, which accommodates both the inclusion and exclusion of a frailty component, allowing for greater flexibility in capturing unobserved heterogeneity among patients. Samples from the posterior distribution are obtained using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, leveraging a hierarchical structure inspired by Bayesian Lasso. Comprehensive simulation studies are conducted across diverse scenarios to evaluate the performance and robustness of the proposed models. Bayesian model comparison and assessment are performed using various criteria. Finally, the proposed approaches are applied to two well-known datasets in the cure model literature: the E1690 melanoma trial and a colon cancer clinical trial.

Abstract--We study the expressivity of one-dimensional (1D) ReLU deep neural networks through the lens of their linear regions. We also propose a function-adaptive notion of sparsity that compares the expected regions used by the network to the minimal number needed to approximate a target within a fixed tolerance. Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) activation functions are piecewise-linear functions whose expressive power can be studied via the number of linear regions that they create [1]-[3]. However, achieving such approximations for complicated functions typically demands substantial computational resources. The Lottery Ticket Hypothesis states that we can often remove many connections while maintaining similar performance, motivating the study of sparse DNNs [7].

The emergence of large language models (LLMs) has sparked much interest in creating LLM-based digital populations that can be applied to many applications such as social simulation, crowdsourcing, marketing, and recommendation systems. A digital population can reduce the cost of recruiting human participants and alleviate many concerns related to human subject study. However, research has found that most of the existing works rely solely on LLMs and could not sufficiently capture the accuracy and diversity of a real human population. To address this limitation, we propose CrowdLLM that integrates pretrained LLMs and generative models to enhance the diversity and fidelity of the digital population. We conduct theoretical analysis of CrowdLLM regarding its great potential in creating cost-effective, sufficiently representative, scalable digital populations that can match the quality of a real crowd. Comprehensive experiments are also conducted across multiple domains (e.g., crowdsourcing, voting, user rating) and simulation studies which demonstrate that CrowdLLM achieves promising performance in both accuracy and distributional fidelity to human data.

Classification of functional data where observations are curves or trajectories poses unique challenges, particularly under severe class imbalance. Traditional Random Forest algorithms, while robust for tabular data, often fail to capture the intrinsic structure of functional observations and struggle with minority class detection. This paper introduces Functional Random Forest with Adaptive Cost-Sensitive Splitting (FRF-ACS), a novel ensemble framework designed for imbalanced functional data classification. The proposed method leverages basis expansions and Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA) to represent curves efficiently, enabling trees to operate on low dimensional functional features. To address imbalance, we incorporate a dynamic cost sensitive splitting criterion that adjusts class weights locally at each node, combined with a hybrid sampling strategy integrating functional SMOTE and weighted bootstrapping. Additionally, curve specific similarity metrics replace traditional Euclidean measures to preserve functional characteristics during leaf assignment. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real world datasets including biomedical signals and sensor trajectories demonstrate that FRF-ACS significantly improves minority class recall and overall predictive performance compared to existing functional classifiers and imbalance handling techniques. This work provides a scalable, interpretable solution for high dimensional functional data analysis in domains where minority class detection is critical.

Abstract--We present a Fourier-enhanced recurrent neural network (RNN) for downscaling electrical loads. The model combines (i) a recurrent backbone driven by low-resolution inputs, (ii) explicit Fourier seasonal embeddings fused in latent space, and (iii) a self-attention layer that captures dependencies among high-resolution components within each period. Energy policy and infrastructure investment decisions require an integrated system-wide perspective that captures the interdependencies of supply, conversion, and end-use sectors, as well as feedback from macroeconomic, technology-cost, and policy drivers. Many such energy modeling systems exist [1], of which the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), developed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) [2], is widely used by policymakers and stakeholders for this very reason. However, as noted in the study of energy plant pollution studies provided by NEMS [3], using temporally and spatially averaged data may significantly miss essential features and pricing signals.