Online A/B tests have become increasingly popular and important for social platforms. However, accurately estimating the global average treatment effect (GATE) has proven to be challenging due to network interference, which violates the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA) and poses great challenge to experimental design. Existing network experimental design research was mostly based on the unbiased Horvitz-Thompson (HT) estimator with substantial data trimming to ensure unbiasedness at the price of high resultant estimation variance. In this paper, we strive to balance the bias and variance in designing randomized network experiments. Under a potential outcome model with 1-hop interference, we derive the bias and variance of the standard HT estimator and reveal their relation to the network topological structure and the covariance of the treatment assignment vector. We then propose to formulate the experimental design problem as to optimize the covariance matrix of the treatment assignment vector to achieve the bias and variance balance by minimizing the mean squared error (MSE) of the estimator. An efficient projected gradient descent algorithm is presented to the implement of the desired randomization scheme. Finally, we carry out extensive simulation studies to demonstrate the advantages of our proposed method over other existing methods in many settings, with different levels of model misspecification.

To generate evidence regarding the safety and efficacy of artificial intelligence (AI) enabled medical devices, AI models need to be evaluated on a diverse population of patient cases, some of which may not be readily available. We propose an evaluation approach for testing medical imaging AI models that relies on in silico imaging pipelines in which stochastic digital models of human anatomy (in object space) with and without pathology are imaged using a digital replica imaging acquisition system to generate realistic synthetic image datasets. Here, we release M-SYNTH, a dataset of cohorts with four breast fibroglandular density distributions imaged at different exposure levels using Monte Carlo x-ray simulations with the publicly available Virtual Imaging Clinical Trial for Regulatory Evaluation (VICTRE) toolkit. We utilize the synthetic dataset to analyze AI model performance and find that model performance decreases with increasing breast density and increases with higher mass density, as expected. As exposure levels decrease, AI model performance drops with the highest performance achieved at exposure levels lower than the nominal recommended dose for the breast type.

Transfer learning from natural image datasets, particularly ImageNet, using standard large models and corresponding pretrained weights has become a de-facto method for deep learning applications to medical imaging. However, there are fundamental differences in data sizes, features and task specifications between natural image classification and the target medical tasks, and there is little understanding of the effects of transfer. In this paper, we explore properties of transfer learning for medical imaging. A performance evaluation on two large scale medical imaging tasks shows that surprisingly, transfer offers little benefit to performance, and simple, lightweight models can perform comparably to ImageNet architectures. Investigating the learned representations and features, we find that some of the differences from transfer learning are due to the over-parametrization of standard models rather than sophisticated feature reuse. We isolate where useful feature reuse occurs, and outline the implications for more efficient model exploration. We also explore feature independent benefits of transfer arising from weight scalings.

For joint inference over multiple variables, a variety of structured prediction techniques have been developed to model correlations among variables and thereby improve predictions. However, many classical approaches suffer from one of two primary drawbacks: they either lack the ability to model high-order correlations among variables while maintaining computationally tractable inference, or they do not allow to explicitly model known correlations. To address this shortcoming, we introduce'Graph Structured Prediction Energy Networks,' for which we develop inference techniques that allow to both model explicit local and implicit higher-order correlations while maintaining tractability of inference. We apply the proposed method to tasks from the natural language processing and computer vision domain and demonstrate its general utility.

We propose a constraint-based causal feature selection method for identifying causes of a given target variable, selecting from a set of candidate variables, while there can also be hidden variables acting as common causes with the target. We prove that if we observe a cause for each candidate cause, then a single conditional independence test with one conditioning variable is sufficient to decide whether a candidate associated with the target is indeed causing it. We thus improve upon existing methods by significantly simplifying statistical testing and requiring a weaker version of causal faithfulness. Our main assumption is inspired by neuroscience paradigms where the activity of a single neuron is considered to be also caused by its own previous state. We demonstrate successful application of our method to simulated, as well as encephalographic data of twenty-one participants, recorded in Max Planck Institute for intelligent Systems. The detected causes of motor performance are in accordance with the latest consensus about the neurophysiological pathways, and can provide new insights into personalised brain stimulation.

Graph embedding has been intensively studied recently, due to the advance of various neural network models. Theoretical analyses and empirical studies have pushed forward the translation of discrete graph structures into distributed representation vectors, but seldom considered the reverse direction, i.e., generation of graphs from given related context spaces. Particularly, since graphs often become more meaningful when associated with semantic contexts (e.g., social networks of certain communities, gene networks of certain diseases), the ability to infer graph structures according to given semantic conditions could be of great value. While existing graph generative models only consider graph structures without semantic contexts, we formulate the novel problem of conditional structure generation, and propose a novel unified model of graph variational generative adversarial nets (CondGen) to handle the intrinsic challenges of flexible context-structure conditioning and permutation-invariant generation. Extensive experiments on two deliberately created benchmark datasets of real-world context-enriched networks demonstrate the supreme effectiveness and generalizability of CondGen.

Models that rely solely on pairwise relationships often fail to capture the complete statistical structure of the complex multivariate data found in diverse domains, such as socio-economic, ecological, or biomedical systems. Non-trivial dependencies between groups of more than two variables can play a significant role in the analysis and modelling of such systems, yet extracting such high-order interactions from data remains challenging. Here, we introduce a hierarchy of $d$-order ($d \geq 2$) interaction measures, increasingly inclusive of possible factorisations of the joint probability distribution, and define non-parametric, kernel-based tests to establish systematically the statistical significance of $d$-order interactions. We also establish mathematical links with lattice theory, which elucidate the derivation of the interaction measures and their composite permutation tests; clarify the connection of simplicial complexes with kernel matrix centring; and provide a means to enhance computational efficiency. We illustrate our results numerically with validations on synthetic data, and through an application to neuroimaging data.

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The vertices represent the RVs, and the edges signify the conditional dependencies among the RVs. Structure learning is the process of inferring the edges by observing realizations of the RVs, and it has applications in a wide range of technological, social, and biological networks. Learning the structure of graphs when the vertices are treated in isolation from inferential information known about them is well-investigated. In a wide range of domains, however, often there exist additional inferred knowledge about the structure, which can serve as valuable side information. For instance, the gene networks that represent different subtypes of the same cancer share similar edges across all subtypes and also have exclusive edges corresponding to each subtype, rendering partially similar graphical models for gene expression in different cancer subtypes.

The increasing popularity of online two-sided markets such as ride-sharing, accommodation and freelance labor platforms, goes hand in hand with new socioeconomic challenges. One major issue remains the existence of bias and discrimination against certain social groups. We study this problem using a two-sided large market model with employers and workers mediated by a platform. Employers who seek to hire workers face uncertainty about a candidate worker's skill level. Therefore, they base their hiring decision on learning from past reviews about an individual worker as well as on their (possibly misspecified) prior beliefs about the ability level of the social group the worker belongs to. Drawing upon the social learning literature with bounded rationality and limited information, uncertainty combined with social bias leads to unequal hiring opportunities between workers of different social groups. Although the effect of social bias decreases as the number of reviews increases (consistent with empirical findings), minority workers still receive lower expected payoffs. Finally, we consider a simple directed matching policy (DM), which combines learning and matching to make better matching decisions for minority workers. Under this policy, there exists a steady-state equilibrium, in which DM reduces the discrimination gap.