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Is Vladimir Putin Finally Feeling Pressure? The Russian President is facing growing domestic discontent after a series of successful attacks by the Ukrainian Army, including a major attack on Moscow. The war in Ukraine, which not long ago seemed to be turning in favor of Vladimir Putin's invading Russian Army, appears to have undergone another reversal. Thanks in part to its drone campaign, the Ukrainians have, according to some analysts, " turned the tide," putting pressure on Putin to potentially accept a ceasefire in the coming months. At the same time, there have been bubbles of discontent forming within Russia, over the cost of the war and government crackdowns on internet access. To understand what might be happening in Russia, and how the Putin regime might respond, I recently e-mailed several rounds of questions to Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, and the founder of the political analysis organization R.Politik. Our conversation, edited for length and clarity, is below.

Stochastic gradient optimization is the dominant learning paradigm for a variety of scenarios, from classical supervised learning to modern self-supervised learning. We consider stochastic gradient algorithms for learning problems whose objectives rely on unknown nuisance parameters, and establish non-asymptotic convergence guarantees. Our results show that, while the presence of a nuisance can alter the optimum and upset the optimization trajectory, the classical stochastic gradient algorithm may still converge under appropriate conditions, such as Neyman orthogonality. Moreover, even when Neyman orthogonality is not satisfied, we show that an algorithm variant with approximately orthogonalized updates (with an approximately orthogonalized gradient oracle) may achieve similar convergence rates. Examples from orthogonal statistical learning/double machine learning and causal inference are discussed.

The growing interest in employing large language models (LLMs) for decision-making in social and economic contexts has raised questions about their potential to function as agents in these domains. A significant number of societal problems involve the distribution of resources, where fairness, along with economic efficiency, play a critical role in the desirability of outcomes. In this paper, we examine whether LLM responses adhere to fundamental fairness concepts such as equitability, envy-freeness, and Rawlsian maximin, and investigate their alignment with human preferences. We evaluate the performance of several LLMs, providing a comparative benchmark of their ability to reflect these measures. Our results demonstrate a lack of alignment between current LLM responses and human distributional preferences. Moreover, LLMs are unable to utilize money as a transferable resource to mitigate inequality. Nonetheless, we demonstrate a stark contrast when (some) LLMs are tasked with selecting from a predefined menu of options rather than generating one. In addition, we analyze the robustness of LLM responses to variations in semantic factors (e.g., intentions or personas) or non-semantic prompting changes (e.g., templates or orderings). Finally, we highlight potential strategies aimed at enhancing the alignment of LLM behavior with well-established fairness concepts.

Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative model training across multiple parties without sharing raw data, with semi-asynchronous FL (SAFL) emerging as a balanced approach between synchronous and asynchronous FL. However, SAFL faces significant challenges in optimizing both gradient-based (e.g., FedSGD) and model-based (e.g., FedAvg) aggregation strategies, which exhibit distinct trade-offs in accuracy, convergence speed, and stability. While gradient aggregation achieves faster convergence and higher accuracy, it suffers from pronounced fluctuations, whereas model aggregation offers greater stability but slower convergence and suboptimal accuracy. This paper presents FedQS, the first framework to theoretically analyze and address these disparities in SAFL. FedQS introduces a divide-andconquer strategy to handle client heterogeneity by classifying clients into four distinct types and adaptively optimizing their local training based on data distribution characteristics and available computational resources. Extensive experiments on computer vision, natural language processing, and real-world tasks demonstrate that FedQS achieves the highest accuracy, attains the lowest loss, and ranks among the fastest in convergence speed, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines.

Clustering tabular data remains a significant open challenge in data analysis and machine learning. Unlike for image data, similarity between tabular records often varies across datasets, making the definition of clusters highly dataset-dependent. Furthermore, the absence of supervised signals complicates hyperparameter tuning in deep learning clustering methods, frequently resulting in unstable performance. To address these issues and reduce the need for per-dataset tuning, we adopt an emerging approach in deep learning: zero-shot learning. We propose ZEUS, a selfcontained model capable of clustering new datasets without any additional training or fine-tuning. It operates by decomposing complex datasets into meaningful components that can then be clustered effectively. Thanks to pre-training on synthetic datasets generated from a latent-variable prior, it generalizes across various datasets without requiring user intervention. To the best of our knowledge, ZEUS is the first zero-shot method capable of generating embeddings for tabular data in a fully unsupervised manner. Experimental results demonstrate that it performs on par with or better than traditional clustering algorithms and recent deep learning-based methods, while being significantly faster and more user-friendly.

Mainstream approaches follow the learning-to-rank paradigm, which focuses on discovering and modeling item topics (e.g., categories) and capturing user preferences for these topics based on historical interactions. However, this paradigm often neglects the modeling of user characteristics and their social roles, which are logical confounders influencing the correlated interests and user preference transition. To bridge this gap, we introduce the user role identification task and the behavioral logic modeling task that aim to explicitly model user roles and learn the logical relations between item topics and user social roles. We show that it is possible to explicitly solve these tasks through an efficient integration framework of Large Language Model (LLM) and recommendation systems, for which we propose TagCF. On the one hand, TagCF exploits the (Multi-modal) LLM's world knowledge and logic inference ability to extract realistic tag-based virtual logic graphs that reveal dynamic and expressive knowledge of users, refining our understanding of user behaviors. On the other hand, TagCF presents empirically effective integration modules that take advantage of the extracted tag-logic information, augmenting the recommendation performance. We conduct both online experiments with an industrial environment and offline experiments on public datasets to verify TagCF's effectiveness, and we empirically show that the user role modeling strategy is potentially a better choice than the modeling of item topics. Additionally, we provide evidence that the extracted logic graphs are empirically a general and transferable knowledge that can benefit a wide range of recommendation tasks. Our code is available in https://github.com/Code2Q/TagCF.

Filtering Step Remaining Instances Raw images collected 7.5Mimages After deduplication and car detection 4.9M images Initial car bounding boxes 13.22M boxes After score/size thresholding 6.97M boxes After Qwen2.5-7B

AI systems must adapt to the evolving visual landscape, especially in domains where object appearance shifts over time. While prior work on time-aware vision models has primarily addressed commonsense-level categories, we introduce Car Models in Time (CaMiT).

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) greatly enhances large language models (LLMs) performance in knowledge-intensive tasks. However, naive RAG methods struggle with multi-hop question answering due to their limited capacity to capture complex dependencies across documents. Recent studies employ graph-based RAG to capture document connections. However, these approaches often result in a loss of semantic coherence and introduce irrelevant noise during node matching and subgraph construction. To address these limitations, we propose NeuroPath, an LLMdriven semantic path tracking RAG framework inspired by the path navigational planning of place cells in neurobiology.