Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to address the concept drifting problem by efficiently updating forecasting models based on streaming data. Many algorithms are designed for online time series forecasting, with some exploiting cross-variable dependency while others assume independence among variables. Given every data assumption has its own pros and cons in online time series modeling, we propose Online ensembling Network (OneNet). It dynamically updates and combines two models, with one focusing on modeling the dependency across the time dimension and the other on cross-variate dependency. Our method incorporates a reinforcement learning-based approach into the traditional online convex programming framework, allowing for the linear combination of the two models with dynamically adjusted weights. OneNet addresses the main shortcoming of classical online learning methods that tend to be slow in adapting to the concept drift. Empirical results show that OneNet reduces online forecasting error by more than 50%compared to the State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) method.

Anomaly detection goal is to detect unexpected behaviours in the data. Because anomaly detection is usually an unsupervised task, traditional anomaly detectors learn a decision boundary by employing heuristics based on intuitions, which are hard to verify in practice. This introduces some uncertainty, especially close to the decision boundary, which may reduce the user trust in the detector's predictions. A way to combat this is by allowing the detector to reject examples with high uncertainty (Learning to Reject). This requires employing a confidence metric that captures the distance to the decision boundary and setting a rejection threshold to reject low-confidence predictions. However, selecting a proper metric and setting the rejection threshold without labels are challenging tasks.

We study stochastic multi-armed bandits in which the objective is a statistical functional of the long-run reward distribution, rather than expected reward alone. Under mild continuity assumptions, we show that the infinite-horizon problem reduces to optimizing over stationary mixed policies: each weight vector \(w\) on the simplex induces a mixture law \(P^w\), and performance is measured by the concave utility \(U(w)=\mathfrak U(P^w)\). For differentiable statistical utilities, we use influence-function calculus to derive stochastic gradient estimators from bandit feedback. This leads to an entropic mirror-ascent algorithm on a truncated simplex, implemented through multiplicative-weights updates and plug-in estimates of the influence function. We establish regret bounds that separate the mirror-ascent optimization error from the bias caused by estimating the influence function. The framework is developed for general concave distributional utilities and illustrated through variance and Wasserstein objectives, with numerical experiments comparing exact and plug-in influence-function implementations.

The health condition of components in civil infrastructures can be described by various discrete states according to their performance degradation. Inferring these states from measurable responses is typically an ill-posed inverse problem. Although Bayesian methods are well-suited to tackle such problems, computing the posterior probability density function (PDF) presents challenges. The likelihood function cannot be analytically formulated due to the unclear relationship between discrete states and structural responses, and the high-dimensional state parameters resulting from numerous components severely complicates the computation of the marginal likelihood function. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel Bayesian inversion paradigm for discrete variables based on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs). The Markov networks are employed as modeling tools, with model parameters learned from data and structural topology prior. It has been proved that inferring this PGM produces the same probabilistic estimation as the posterior PDF derived from Bayesian inference, which effectively solves the above challenges. The inference is accomplished by Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), and a graph property-based GNN training strategy is developed to enable accurate inference across varying graph scales, thereby significantly reducing the computational overhead in high-dimensional problems. Both synthetic and experimental data are used to validate the proposed framework